Aftermath
After a big gain, over the next quarter
A daily rise among the stock's own best 10% of the prior 2 years. So "big" depends on the stock: a quiet stock's big day is a volatile stock's normal one; each stock's own line is shown under its name. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +3.57% over the next quarter after a big gain (half of them between +0.81% and +6.85%), against +2.15% on any day.
Latest big gains, last few sessions
| Entry | Stock | Its median, 1 quarter | Confidence | Rank | Up | Events | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | ARM | +5.2% on the day (line +4.7%) | +6.02% | Low | #220 of 499 | 56% | 25 |
| Oct 2 | AWK American Water Works | +1.9% on the day (line +1.7%) | -0.66% | Medium | #491 of 499 | 49% | 59 |
| Oct 2 | BRUN | +3.9% on the day (line +3.8%) | — | — | |||
| Oct 2 | CNC Centene Corporation | +3.3% on the day (line +3.1%) | +0.91% | Medium | #354 of 499 | 51% | 70 |
| Oct 2 | CNP CenterPoint Energy | +1.6% on the day (line +1.4%) | +3.16% | Medium | #319 of 499 | 74% | 58 |
| Oct 2 | CSCO Cisco | +3.6% on the day (line +2.0%) | +8.77% | Medium | #22 of 499 | 77% | 60 |
| Oct 2 | CSX CSX Corporation | +1.9% on the day (line +1.7%) | +3.58% | Medium | #260 of 499 | 67% | 58 |
| Oct 2 | DE Deere & Company | +3.0% on the day (line +2.2%) | +4.38% | Medium | #210 of 499 | 65% | 57 |
| Oct 2 | ECHO EchoStar | +6.8% on the day (line +4.3%) | +6.92% | Medium | #159 of 499 | 59% | 69 |
| Oct 2 | FCX Freeport-McMoRan | +4.0% on the day (line +3.4%) | +6.55% | Medium | #112 of 499 | 67% | 58 |
| Oct 2 | IBRX | +10.8% on the day (line +7.2%) | -3.15% | Medium | #291 of 499 | 43% | 54 |
| Oct 2 | JBHT J.B. Hunt | +3.1% on the day (line +2.7%) | +4.21% | Medium | #224 of 499 | 63% | 65 |
| Oct 2 | LIN Linde plc | +2.1% on the day (line +1.4%) | +3.53% | Medium | #295 of 499 | 75% | 51 |
| Oct 2 | MNST Monster Beverage | +1.9% on the day (line +1.7%) | +5.34% | Medium | #102 of 499 | 70% | 56 |
| Oct 2 | MPWR Monolithic Power Systems | +5.8% on the day (line +4.3%) | +8.27% | Medium | #153 of 499 | 64% | 61 |
| Oct 2 | NSC Norfolk Southern | +2.3% on the day (line +1.6%) | +5.70% | Medium | #107 of 499 | 74% | 57 |
| Oct 2 | NTAP NetApp | +5.2% on the day (line +2.6%) | +10.66% | Medium | #36 of 499 | 72% | 60 |
| Oct 2 | P Everpure | +4.5% on the day (line +4.1%) | +14.66% | Medium | #65 of 499 | 67% | 63 |
| Oct 2 | ROK Rockwell Automation | +2.7% on the day (line +2.1%) | +4.20% | Medium | #227 of 499 | 63% | 59 |
| Oct 2 | RSG Republic Services | +1.6% on the day (line +1.4%) | +3.75% | Medium | #249 of 499 | 66% | 58 |
| Oct 2 | TER Teradyne | +8.0% on the day (line +4.5%) | +12.28% | Medium | #166 of 499 | 64% | 66 |
| Oct 2 | TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +4.7% on the day (line +4.1%) | +4.35% | Medium | #223 of 499 | 53% | 58 |
| Oct 2 | TSN Tyson Foods | +2.8% on the day (line +1.6%) | -1.66% | Medium | #489 of 499 | 44% | 64 |
| Oct 2 | UNP Union Pacific Corporation | +2.1% on the day (line +1.5%) | +3.30% | Medium | #306 of 499 | 70% | 57 |
| Oct 2 | VXUS | +1.1% on the day (line +1.1%) | +5.19% | Medium | #76 of 499 | 90% | 52 |
| Oct 1 | ACGL Arch Capital Group | +2.1% on the day (line +1.7%) | +2.28% | Medium | #405 of 499 | 64% | 59 |
| Oct 1 | ADP Automatic Data Processing | +2.3% on the day (line +1.5%) | +3.37% | Medium | #255 of 499 | 62% | 53 |
| Oct 1 | APA APA Corporation | +4.3% on the day (line +3.7%) | +4.20% | Medium | #225 of 499 | 53% | 58 |
| Oct 1 | BA Boeing | +3.4% on the day (line +2.5%) | -2.02% | Medium | #463 of 499 | 43% | 56 |
| Oct 1 | CAH Cardinal Health | +3.6% on the day (line +1.9%) | +8.53% | Medium | #38 of 499 | 73% | 56 |
| Oct 1 | CAPS | +7.1% on the day (line +6.5%) | -33.90% | Medium | #500 of 499 | 0% | 43 |
| Oct 1 | CB Chubb Limited | +1.9% on the day (line +1.5%) | +4.84% | Medium | #149 of 499 | 64% | 56 |
| Oct 1 | CDNS Cadence Design Systems | +6.2% on the day (line +2.6%) | +5.47% | Medium | #151 of 499 | 64% | 56 |
| Oct 1 | CDW CDW Corporation | +6.0% on the day (line +2.4%) | -3.97% | Medium | #420 of 499 | 45% | 58 |
| Oct 1 | CHRW C.H. Robinson | +3.5% on the day (line +2.1%) | +1.38% | Medium | #303 of 499 | 54% | 65 |
| Oct 1 | CIEN Ciena | +7.8% on the day (line +5.2%) | +19.11% | Medium | #124 of 499 | 67% | 75 |
| Oct 1 | CINF Cincinnati Financial | +1.7% on the day (line +1.7%) | +3.43% | Medium | #313 of 499 | 73% | 63 |
| Oct 1 | COHR Coherent Corp. | +10.9% on the day (line +6.0%) | +20.74% | Medium | #95 of 499 | 68% | 72 |
| Oct 1 | COR Cencora | +3.2% on the day (line +1.8%) | +5.97% | Medium | #109 of 499 | 78% | 55 |
| Oct 1 | CRM Salesforce | +3.1% on the day (line +2.8%) | -2.31% | Medium | #373 of 499 | 43% | 53 |
| Oct 1 | CTSH Cognizant | +6.0% on the day (line +2.0%) | +2.23% | Medium | #270 of 499 | 57% | 65 |
| Oct 1 | DRI Darden Restaurants | +2.1% on the day (line +2.0%) | +6.96% | Medium | #46 of 499 | 77% | 52 |
| Oct 1 | EMR Emerson Electric | +2.2% on the day (line +2.1%) | +4.78% | Medium | #193 of 499 | 60% | 63 |
| Oct 1 | EOG EOG Resources | +2.6% on the day (line +2.2%) | +4.13% | Medium | #230 of 499 | 65% | 46 |
| Oct 1 | EQT EQT Corporation | +3.1% on the day (line +2.6%) | -0.53% | Medium | #356 of 499 | 49% | 45 |
| Oct 1 | FICO Fair Isaac | +11.7% on the day (line +2.9%) | +9.41% | Medium | #105 of 499 | 61% | 62 |
| Oct 1 | FTV Fortive | +1.9% on the day (line +1.8%) | +3.03% | Medium | #320 of 499 | 62% | 61 |
| Oct 1 | GM General Motors | +3.0% on the day (line +2.6%) | +5.97% | Medium | #155 of 499 | 70% | 57 |
| Oct 1 | GWW W. W. Grainger | +2.9% on the day (line +1.6%) | +9.24% | Medium | #49 of 499 | 73% | 55 |
| Oct 1 | HAS Hasbro | +2.6% on the day (line +2.0%) | +5.18% | Medium | #185 of 499 | 60% | 63 |
| Oct 1 | HIG Hartford (The) | +2.8% on the day (line +1.5%) | +5.09% | Medium | #86 of 499 | 84% | 62 |
| Oct 1 | HPQ HP Inc. | +2.8% on the day (line +2.6%) | +6.25% | Medium | #164 of 499 | 61% | 56 |
| Oct 1 | HUBB Hubbell Incorporated | +3.0% on the day (line +2.4%) | +4.71% | Medium | #203 of 499 | 61% | 64 |
| Oct 1 | IBM IBM | +2.6% on the day (line +2.2%) | +5.33% | Medium | #184 of 499 | 62% | 66 |
| Oct 1 | JBL Jabil | +4.5% on the day (line +3.1%) | +15.67% | Medium | #55 of 499 | 68% | 59 |
| Oct 1 | KEYS Keysight Technologies | +2.7% on the day (line +2.5%) | +4.05% | Medium | #231 of 499 | 64% | 55 |
| Oct 1 | LITE Lumentum | +7.7% on the day (line +6.9%) | +17.90% | Medium | #187 of 499 | 66% | 76 |
| Oct 1 | MCK McKesson Corporation | +5.3% on the day (line +1.9%) | +10.40% | Medium | #5 of 499 | 78% | 55 |
| Oct 1 | MPC Marathon Petroleum | +6.2% on the day (line +2.6%) | +7.00% | Medium | #173 of 499 | 64% | 58 |
| Oct 1 | NAMM | +35.7% on the day (line +6.8%) | — | — |
Best after a big gain
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HWM Howmet Aerospace (+2.6% or better) | +14.05%+11.5 to +16.1 | Medium | +14.61% | 88% | +9.53% | -17% · +57% | 60 |
| 2 | WELL Welltower (+1.8% or better) | +8.49%+8.0 to +9.6 | Medium | +8.38% | 85% | +2.96% | -4% · +24% | 65 |
| 3 | ANET Arista Networks (+3.7% or better) | +13.81%+9.4 to +15.9 | Medium | +13.86% | 81% | +9.77% | -45% · +58% | 70 |
| 4 | ARES Ares Management (+2.9% or better) | +11.22%+7.3 to +12.5 | Medium | +5.63% | 73% | +4.45% | -45% · +34% | 56 |
| 5 | MCK McKesson Corporation (+1.9% or better) | +10.40%+6.8 to +11.8 | Medium | +7.16% | 78% | +3.98% | -23% · +25% | 55 |
| 6 | BNY BNY Mellon (+1.6% or better) | +13.34%+9.1 to +15.8 | Medium | +11.24% | 85% | +7.21% | -16% · +31% | 54 |
| 7 | EXPE Expedia Group (+3.0% or better) | +12.61%+7.8 to +14.8 | Medium | +10.39% | 72% | +3.90% | -22% · +52% | 53 |
| 8 | RTX RTX Corporation (+1.8% or better) | +10.87%+6.3 to +12.4 | Medium | +7.94% | 74% | +4.85% | -26% · +30% | 58 |
| 9 | CASY Casey's (+2.2% or better) | +8.28%+6.7 to +10.3 | Medium | +9.71% | 85% | +1.22% | -12% · +36% | 61 |
| 10 | GE GE Aerospace (+2.4% or better) | +12.72%+9.4 to +16.0 | Medium | +14.40% | 81% | +7.25% | -12% · +51% | 58 |
| 11 | JPM JPMorgan Chase (+1.7% or better) | +8.15%+6.2 to +9.7 | Medium | +7.69% | 80% | +1.81% | -10% · +33% | 61 |
| 12 | AXP American Express (+2.0% or better) | +7.99%+5.8 to +9.6 | Medium | +6.09% | 74% | +0.37% | -22% · +37% | 54 |
| 13 | SPG Simon Property Group (+1.6% or better) | +8.57%+5.4 to +11.0 | Medium | +8.07% | 83% | +2.36% | -13% · +30% | 53 |
| 14 | AVGO Broadcom (+3.4% or better) | +12.32%+7.4 to +15.8 | Medium | +13.49% | 73% | +8.49% | -30% · +81% | 66 |
| 15 | MAR Marriott International (+1.9% or better) | +8.51%+6.4 to +11.9 | Medium | +9.06% | 85% | +3.56% | -14% · +29% | 53 |
| 16 | TTWO Take-Two Interactive (+2.2% or better) | +7.74%+5.0 to +8.6 | Medium | +6.02% | 75% | +3.51% | -23% · +27% | 55 |
| 17 | INTC Intel (+5.5% or better) | +12.79%+9.1 to +17.2 | Medium | +21.68% | 71% | +6.57% | -33% · +182% | 72 |
| 18 | CFG Citizens Financial Group (+2.0% or better) | +9.63%+6.0 to +11.4 | Medium | +7.26% | 75% | +3.59% | -32% · +41% | 61 |
| 19 | SYF Synchrony Financial (+2.5% or better) | +13.13%+5.4 to +15.9 | Medium | +10.65% | 74% | +5.35% | -31% · +49% | 54 |
| 20 | JCI Johnson Controls (+2.1% or better) | +9.64%+5.2 to +12.1 | Medium | +10.67% | 88% | +2.77% | -16% · +44% | 58 |
| 21 | PWR Quanta Services (+2.8% or better) | +12.70%+8.0 to +18.0 | Medium | +12.75% | 79% | +7.13% | -25% · +57% | 62 |
| 22 | CSCO Cisco (+2.0% or better) | +8.77%+4.4 to +11.0 | Medium | +10.91% | 77% | +4.81% | -14% · +56% | 60 |
| 23 | APH Amphenol (+3.1% or better) | +10.14%+7.9 to +15.8 | Medium | +12.80% | 80% | +4.69% | -12% · +53% | 70 |
| 24 | RL Ralph Lauren Corporation (+2.6% or better) | +12.32%+5.3 to +15.1 | Medium | +11.21% | 73% | +5.72% | -25% · +51% | 60 |
| 25 | HCA HCA Healthcare (+2.1% or better) | +9.07%+4.5 to +12.3 | Medium | +6.42% | 78% | +5.31% | -34% · +32% | 54 |
Worst after a big gain
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAPS meme (+6.8% or better) | -33.90%-37.4 to -31.5 | Medium | -34.75% | 0% | -39.91% | -57% · -11% | 43 |
| 2 | BF-B Brown–Forman (+2.4% or better) | -3.35%-5.4 to -1.5 | Medium | -4.39% | 31% | -9.81% | -27% · +19% | 70 |
| 3 | HRL Hormel Foods (+1.7% or better) | -3.22%-4.7 to -1.2 | Medium | -2.90% | 38% | -8.88% | -21% · +21% | 65 |
| 4 | HSIC Henry Schein (+2.1% or better) | -2.71%-3.4 to +0.7 | Medium | +0.53% | 44% | -5.03% | -19% · +24% | 70 |
| 5 | MOS Mosaic Company (The) (+3.2% or better) | -5.78%-9.6 to -4.1 | Medium | -4.00% | 31% | -12.24% | -44% · +54% | 55 |
| 6 | TLT meme (+0.9% or better) | -0.87%-1.9 to +0.9 | Medium | +0.41% | 48% | -6.74% | -9% · +13% | 40 |
| 7 | EXR Extra Space Storage (+1.9% or better) | -1.94%-3.6 to +1.5 | Medium | +0.65% | 46% | -4.69% | -18% · +42% | 65 |
| 8 | ROP Roper Technologies (+1.5% or better) | -1.42%-2.5 to +1.0 | Medium | -1.29% | 46% | -6.26% | -29% · +31% | 54 |
| 9 | GIS General Mills (+1.7% or better) | -3.00%-6.1 to -0.4 | Medium | -3.28% | 35% | -8.85% | -25% · +18% | 66 |
| 10 | ERIE Erie Indemnity (+2.2% or better) | -6.34%-9.5 to -1.8 | Medium | -1.07% | 32% | -11.80% | -25% · +49% | 63 |
| 11 | AWK American Water Works (+1.7% or better) | -0.66%-2.2 to +1.8 | Medium | +0.41% | 49% | -6.18% | -19% · +24% | 59 |
| 12 | XEL Xcel Energy (+1.4% or better) | +0.10%-0.9 to +1.8 | Medium | +1.46% | 52% | -4.59% | -17% · +24% | 63 |
| 13 | TSN Tyson Foods (+1.7% or better) | -1.66%-3.6 to +1.3 | Medium | -0.25% | 44% | -7.56% | -18% · +24% | 64 |
| 14 | WEC WEC Energy Group (+1.3% or better) | -0.25%-1.3 to +2.4 | Medium | +1.58% | 46% | -4.38% | -14% · +19% | 56 |
| 15 | WEN meme (+3.0% or better) | -5.77%-11.3 to -3.3 | Medium | -5.96% | 25% | -12.90% | -29% · +31% | 67 |
| 16 | PG Procter & Gamble (+1.4% or better) | -0.58%-2.5 to +2.2 | Medium | +0.31% | 48% | -5.96% | -10% · +20% | 60 |
| 17 | ED Consolidated Edison (+1.4% or better) | +0.67%-0.4 to +2.3 | Medium | +1.90% | 56% | -4.06% | -12% · +23% | 62 |
| 18 | KHC Kraft Heinz (+2.0% or better) | -1.46%-4.0 to 0.0 | Medium | +0.29% | 40% | -5.42% | -15% · +26% | 65 |
| 19 | OTIS Otis Worldwide (+1.5% or better) | -2.12%-4.0 to +1.5 | Medium | -1.42% | 44% | -5.54% | -22% · +26% | 55 |
| 20 | TYL Tyler Technologies (+2.0% or better) | -3.06%-5.1 to +1.2 | Medium | -1.77% | 40% | -7.64% | -25% · +29% | 53 |
| 21 | PEP PepsiCo (+1.5% or better) | -1.12%-5.0 to +1.7 | Medium | -0.99% | 45% | -6.45% | -15% · +16% | 65 |
| 22 | WY Weyerhaeuser (+1.9% or better) | -2.45%-6.4 to +0.1 | Medium | -2.29% | 39% | -6.87% | -20% · +15% | 57 |
| 23 | AMT American Tower (+1.8% or better) | -1.86%-4.3 to +1.8 | Medium | +1.03% | 42% | -8.43% | -17% · +30% | 59 |
| 24 | ARE Alexandria Real Estate … (+2.6% or better) | -3.40%-7.4 to +0.2 | Medium | -3.67% | 40% | -9.59% | -45% · +36% | 77 |
| 25 | EXC Exelon (+1.4% or better) | +0.59%-0.7 to +1.8 | Medium | +1.51% | 54% | -4.62% | -17% · +19% | 57 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next quarter from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.