AAOI
Down on hot inflation data
- AAOI −6.74% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: −6.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- News: tikr.com reports stock fell on hot inflation concerns during the session. (tikr.com)
- Aftermath, crossed below 200-day avg (Oct 8): After its 12 crosses below the 200-day average in the past 5 years, AAOI was higher a month later 8 times out of 12; half the outcomes fell between -10.4% and +24.0%. History, not a forecast.
- 15 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 74% positive over the week · today's pace is 1.6× its recent daily average.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: B. Riley Securities maintained Neutral, lowered target $109 → $92.00.
- 2 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.2× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices AAOI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
92.28 +7.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
100.36 +16.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 80.41 · prior close 86.22 | |
| Bargain buy side |
80.56 -6.6% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
74.07 -14.1% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 78.80 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 94.34 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 80.56 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 92.28 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 82.23 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 90.40 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 70.51 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 105.44 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 74.07 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 100.36 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 77.56 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 95.85 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From AAOI's daily swings (about 7.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -13.6% | — | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -9.1% | +13.5% | +2.1% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -15.2% | -13.9% | -25.4% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -10.6% | -5.8% | +7.5% | — |
| Jul 15, 2026 | -13.0% | +1.3% | +19.2% | -10.4% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | -13.0% | -0.9% | -8.9% | -11.3% |
| Jun 16, 2026 | -10.8% | -14.0% | -40.0% | -43.4% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -9.0% | -4.9% | -33.0% | -44.0% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among AAOI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high May 13, 2026 |
223.10 +177.5% |
| Highest analyst target | 220.00 +173.6% |
| Mean analyst target | 163.40 +103.2% |
| 200-day average | 112.01 +39.3% |
| 50-day average | 111.90 +39.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 109.00 +35.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 100.36 +24.8% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
86.22 +7.2% |
| Now | 80.41 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 74.07 -7.9% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
19.49 -75.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 13 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.