BMBL
Moving with the market
- BMBL −0.67% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: −0.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Filing: 8-K: material agreement, Reg FD disclosure (item 1.01, 7.01) (filing)
- Aftermath, crossed above 200-day avg (Oct 12): After its 6 crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, BMBL was higher a day later 2 times out of 6; half the outcomes fell between -3.2% and +7.2%. History, not a forecast.
- 0 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 74% positive over the week.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: UBS maintained Neutral, raised target $3.00 → $6.05.
- 11 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 5 insider sales not under a 10b5-1 plan.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,254 | — | -0.2%576/1253 up | -1.1%545/1249 up | -4.8%452/1233 up | -12.5%365/1191 up |
| Big drop (-4.2% or worse) | 54 | — | +0.4%30/54 up | -1.8%23/54 up | -4.5%18/52 up | -11.8%21/51 up |
| Big gain Oct 12 (+4.1% or better) | 58 | — | -0.4%24/58 up | +0.9%31/57 up | -3.3%26/57 up | -8.1%22/54 up |
| Earnings beat | 12 | -4.1%3/12 up | +0.4%6/12 up | -1.7%4/12 up | -0.6%6/12 up | -15.7%5/11 up |
| Earnings miss | 8 | +2.0%4/8 up | +0.1%4/8 up | +1.3%5/8 up | -6.6%3/8 up | +9.7%5/8 up |
| 52-week high Oct 13 | 1 | — | +0.3%1/1 up | — | — | — |
| 52-week low | 14 | — | +1.9%9/14 up | -2.9%5/14 up | -2.7%4/13 up | -0.3%6/12 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg Oct 12 | 6 | — | -1.5%2/6 up | -2.1%2/5 up | -8.7%2/5 up | -37.0%1/5 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 6 | — | +0.2%4/6 up | -3.3%2/6 up | -6.6%2/6 up | -23.9%0/6 up |
| RSI oversold | 17 | — | +0.7%10/17 up | +0.5%11/17 up | -4.3%6/17 up | +1.3%10/17 up |
| RSI overbought Oct 12 | 12 | — | -0.1%4/12 up | +1.4%8/11 up | -8.7%4/11 up | -25.9%4/11 up |
| Volume spike Oct 12 | 25 | — | -0.4%9/25 up | -0.4%11/24 up | -3.7%10/24 up | -14.0%7/24 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Theme rally hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | 2 | — | -7.6%0/2 up | -8.5%0/2 up | -13.1%0/2 up | -22.9%0/2 up |
| Analyst upgrade | 1 | — | +2.7%1/1 up | -5.3%0/1 up | 0.0%0/1 up | -27.9%0/1 up |
| Analyst downgrade | 2 | — | -2.6%0/2 up | -13.5%0/2 up | -11.2%0/2 up | -31.4%0/2 up |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 15 | — | +0.4%10/15 up | +0.6%10/15 up | +13.0%10/10 up | -9.8%5/10 up |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is BMBL's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Any day
Every session: the plain holding return, the baseline for the events below.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 1253 | -0.21% | 576 of 1253 | -0.30% |
-30%
+57%
|
|
| 1 week | 1249 ≈250 indep. | -1.07% | 545 of 1249 | -1.31% |
-38%
+139%
|
|
| 1 month | 1233 ≈59 indep. | -4.80% | 452 of 1233 | -5.49% |
-46%
+100%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 1191 ≈19 indep. | -12.50% | 365 of 1191 | -15.95% |
-56%
+100%
|
Range of outcomes: all of BMBL's days in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Any day by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 76 | -0.8%75 events vs -0.8% | -3.1%73 events vs -3.1% | -17.9%73 events vs -17.9% | -31.8%73 events vs -31.8% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 979 | -0.1%979 events vs -0.1% | -0.9%977 events vs -0.9% | -4.1%961 events vs -4.1% | -10.3%919 events vs -10.3% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 404 | -0.4%403 events vs -0.4% | -2.1%401 events vs -2.1% | -5.2%399 events vs -5.2% | -24.5%389 events vs -24.5% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 801 | -0.1%801 events vs -0.1% | -0.4%799 events vs -0.4% | -4.1%785 events vs -4.1% | -7.4%753 events vs -7.4% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 472 | -0.4%471 events vs -0.4% | -2.3%469 events vs -2.3% | -6.0%467 events vs -6.0% | -18.5%453 events vs -18.5% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 763 | -0.1%763 events vs -0.1% | -0.4%761 events vs -0.4% | -3.7%747 events vs -3.7% | -10.1%719 events vs -10.1% |
The same event split by where BMBL stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.