CRWV
Stock fell 15% on bond yield spike
- CRWV −15.46% on the last session vs SPY −1.08%: −14.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- News: CoreWeave shares fell 15% after bond yields spiked due to rising debt burden concerns, per Yahoo Finance. (finance.yahoo.com)
- More than its group: its cloud peers -4.8% (-3.8 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, mention spike (trendy) (129 mentions vs 4.4/day the week before): After its 15 mention spikes in the past 5 years, CRWV was higher a month later 4 times out of 15; half the outcomes fell between -14.5% and +5.0%. History, not a forecast.
- 129 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 72% positive over the week · today's pace is 25.8× its recent daily average.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 0 negative); latest: Freedom Capital Markets maintained Buy, target $151.
- 13 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 8 insider sales not under a 10b5-1 plan.
- Market backdrop (Today): CPI m/m 0.6% vs 0.6% expected (in line); CPI y/y 3.7% vs 3.6% expected (hotter); S&P futures -0.68%, 10-year yield +12bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume 3.5× its 20-day average.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 389 | — | -0.5%185/388 up | +0.4%196/384 up | -1.3%175/368 up | -3.5%151/326 up |
| Big drop latest session (-7.0% or worse) | 5 | — | -1.5%2/5 up | -2.8%1/4 up | -14.0%1/4 up | -10.5%1/2 up |
| Big gain (+8.1% or better) | 7 | — | -1.6%2/7 up | -15.4%2/7 up | -11.4%3/7 up | -28.8%0/3 up |
| Earnings beat | 2 | +1.5%1/2 up | -2.3%0/2 up | -15.5%0/2 up | -9.3%0/2 up | +8.3%1/1 up |
| Earnings miss | 4 | -15.0%0/4 up | -0.7%2/4 up | -7.1%1/4 up | -9.0%1/4 up | +7.5%2/4 up |
| 52-week high | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week low | 1 | — | +21.5%1/1 up | +47.8%1/1 up | +42.7%1/1 up | — |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 4 | — | +2.4%2/4 up | -5.1%2/4 up | -6.3%1/4 up | -11.4%0/3 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 4 | — | -1.7%1/4 up | -10.2%1/4 up | -16.0%1/4 up | -8.7%1/3 up |
| RSI oversold latest session | 4 | — | +8.7%2/3 up | +18.7%2/3 up | +42.7%2/3 up | +137.3%2/2 up |
| RSI overbought | 4 | — | +0.9%2/4 up | +2.1%2/4 up | -8.5%1/4 up | -32.8%1/4 up |
| Volume spike latest session | 8 | — | +0.5%4/7 up | +11.1%4/7 up | +22.6%4/6 up | -3.4%2/5 up |
| Theme selloff latest session hindsight | 25 | — | -3.5%9/25 up | -1.8%11/24 up | -6.5%11/24 up | -0.7%11/22 up |
| Theme rally hindsight | 27 | — | +1.3%15/27 up | +1.8%15/27 up | +1.8%15/27 up | 0.0%13/25 up |
| Mention spike (Trendy) latest session | 15 | — | -1.3%7/15 up | -6.0%6/15 up | -7.2%4/15 up | -2.8%7/14 up |
| Analyst upgrade | 6 | — | -1.8%2/6 up | +0.3%3/6 up | -4.2%2/5 up | -18.6%1/4 up |
| Analyst downgrade | 2 | — | -3.4%1/2 up | -3.9%1/2 up | +5.1%1/2 up | +1.7%1/2 up |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 87 | — | +1.3%44/87 up | -1.6%41/87 up | -6.5%31/78 up | -22.0%23/68 up |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is CRWV's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session or today, from the live quote.
Theme rally
The stock's theme peers (equal weight, without the stock) beat the S&P 500 by one of their best 10% gaps of the prior 2 years, and by at least 2 pts.
Hindsight: the history below is judged with today's theme lists, which were set on Oct 7, 2026 and hold the stocks that belong to each story now, including ones that didn't back then. So there is no S&P 500 comparison. The clean record starts on Oct 7, 2026: 0 theme rallies since then; its record shows once there are 3.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 27 | +1.25% | 15 of 27 | +0.71% |
-9%
+17%
|
— |
| 1 week | 27 | +1.81% | 15 of 27 | +1.39% |
-18%
+48%
|
— |
| 1 month | 27 ≈17 indep. | +1.76% | 15 of 27 | +0.62% |
-44%
+171%
|
— |
| 1 quarter | 25 ≈6 indep. | +0.02% | 13 of 25 | -4.36% |
-46%
+189%
|
— |
Range of outcomes: all of CRWV's theme rallies in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Theme rally by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 7 | +2.6%7 events vs -1.7% | -4.1%7 events vs -5.9% | -9.7%7 events vs -11.8% | -25.8%6 events vs -26.7% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 6 | -3.6%6 events vs 0.0% | +5.1%6 events vs +1.1% | +25.9%6 events vs +2.6% | +18.5%5 events vs +16.1% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 13 | +1.2%13 events vs -0.8% | -3.6%13 events vs -3.9% | -9.7%13 events vs -12.2% | -19.1%12 events vs -23.8% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 10 | -3.0%10 events vs -0.9% | +4.7%10 events vs +2.7% | +12.3%10 events vs +7.2% | +10.6%9 events vs +3.2% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 16 | +3.0%16 events vs -0.5% | -0.9%16 events vs -0.9% | +1.0%16 events vs -5.1% | -19.9%15 events vs -22.0% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 10 | -2.4%10 events vs -0.7% | +3.2%10 events vs +1.1% | +5.3%10 events vs +0.8% | +4.6%9 events vs +0.9% |
The same event split by where CRWV stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Latest theme rallies
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | Aug 12 @ $107.73 | Cloud peers +6.8 pts vs SPY; the stock +19.3% | -1.3% | -15.7% | -17.4% | … |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Jul 30 @ $73.90 | Cloud peers +9.1 pts vs SPY; the stock +21.5% | -2.9% | +15.5% | +14.0% | … |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Jul 15 @ $77.12 | Cloud peers +2.7 pts vs SPY; the stock -3.5% | -5.5% | +7.2% | +37.8% | +0.9% |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Jun 15 @ $106.71 | Cloud peers +3.2 pts vs SPY; the stock +6.1% | +9.7% | -0.9% | -31.7% | -24.2% |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Jun 1 @ $124.82 | Cloud peers +4.2 pts vs SPY; the stock +14.0% | -4.4% | -18.0% | -31.4% | -32.0% |
| May 21, 2026 | May 21 @ $107.58 | Cloud peers +3.0 pts vs SPY; the stock +6.2% | -1.9% | +1.8% | -1.7% | -18.3% |
| May 13, 2026 | May 13 @ $111.31 | Cloud peers +3.9 pts vs SPY; the stock +3.3% | +2.6% | -9.0% | -9.7% | -4.5% |
| May 1, 2026 | May 1 @ $119.01 | Cloud peers +4.0 pts vs SPY; the stock +6.6% | +5.4% | -4.1% | +0.2% | -27.9% |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Apr 13 @ $110.27 | Cloud peers +4.0 pts vs SPY; the stock +8.1% | +6.3% | +6.5% | -2.3% | -27.5% |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Mar 31 @ $77.47 | Cloud peers +3.2 pts vs SPY; the stock +12.0% | +1.3% | +14.8% | +44.1% | +10.6% |
| Mar 16, 2026 | Mar 16 @ $85.86 | Cloud peers +2.9 pts vs SPY; the stock +5.9% | -4.4% | -4.5% | +38.2% | +24.3% |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Mar 4 @ $79.50 | Cloud peers +3.1 pts vs SPY; the stock +7.8% | -5.9% | +3.1% | +3.4% | +39.5% |
| Feb 9, 2026 | Feb 9 @ $96.79 | Cloud peers +3.6 pts vs SPY; the stock +7.6% | -1.7% | -6.0% | -15.3% | +18.5% |
| Jan 12, 2026 | Jan 12 @ $89.93 | Cloud peers +2.4 pts vs SPY; the stock +12.2% | -2.7% | +5.9% | +5.8% | +30.3% |
| Dec 19, 2025 | Dec 19 @ $83.00 | Cloud peers +3.8 pts vs SPY; the stock +22.6% | +2.2% | -9.7% | +10.6% | 0.0% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.