CRWV
Down on hot inflation data, AI selloff
- CRWV −15.46% on the last session vs SPY −1.08%: −14.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- News: Hot CPI report pressured growth stocks and semiconductor selloff continued (Motley Fool). (fool.com)
- More than its group: its cloud peers -4.8% (-3.8 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, mention spike (trendy) (107 mentions vs 4.4/day the week before): After its 15 mention spikes in the past 5 years, CRWV was higher a month later 4 times out of 15; half the outcomes fell between -14.5% and +5.0%. History, not a forecast.
- 123 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 75% positive over the week · today's pace is 21.4× its recent daily average.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 0 negative); latest: Freedom Capital Markets maintained Buy, target $151.
- 13 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 8 insider sales not under a 10b5-1 plan.
- Market backdrop (Today): CPI m/m 0.6% vs 0.6% expected (in line); CPI y/y 3.7% vs 3.6% expected (hotter); S&P futures -0.68%, 10-year yield +12bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume 3.5× its 20-day average.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 389 | — | -0.5%185/388 up | +0.4%196/384 up | -1.3%175/368 up | -3.5%151/326 up |
| Big drop latest session (-7.0% or worse) | 5 | — | -1.5%2/5 up | -2.8%1/4 up | -14.0%1/4 up | -10.5%1/2 up |
| Big gain (+8.1% or better) | 7 | — | -1.6%2/7 up | -15.4%2/7 up | -11.4%3/7 up | -28.8%0/3 up |
| Earnings beat | 2 | +1.5%1/2 up | -2.3%0/2 up | -15.5%0/2 up | -9.3%0/2 up | +8.3%1/1 up |
| Earnings miss | 4 | -15.0%0/4 up | -0.7%2/4 up | -7.1%1/4 up | -9.0%1/4 up | +7.5%2/4 up |
| 52-week high | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week low | 1 | — | +21.5%1/1 up | +47.8%1/1 up | +42.7%1/1 up | — |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 4 | — | +2.4%2/4 up | -5.1%2/4 up | -6.3%1/4 up | -11.4%0/3 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 4 | — | -1.7%1/4 up | -10.2%1/4 up | -16.0%1/4 up | -8.7%1/3 up |
| RSI oversold latest session | 4 | — | +8.7%2/3 up | +18.7%2/3 up | +42.7%2/3 up | +137.3%2/2 up |
| RSI overbought | 4 | — | +0.9%2/4 up | +2.1%2/4 up | -8.5%1/4 up | -32.8%1/4 up |
| Volume spike latest session | 8 | — | +0.5%4/7 up | +11.1%4/7 up | +22.6%4/6 up | -3.4%2/5 up |
| Theme selloff latest session hindsight | 25 | — | -3.5%9/25 up | -1.8%11/24 up | -6.5%11/24 up | -0.7%11/22 up |
| Theme rally hindsight | 27 | — | +1.3%15/27 up | +1.8%15/27 up | +1.8%15/27 up | 0.0%13/25 up |
| Mention spike (Trendy) latest session | 15 | — | -1.3%7/15 up | -6.0%6/15 up | -7.2%4/15 up | -2.8%7/14 up |
| Analyst upgrade | 6 | — | -1.8%2/6 up | +0.3%3/6 up | -4.2%2/5 up | -18.6%1/4 up |
| Analyst downgrade | 2 | — | -3.4%1/2 up | -3.9%1/2 up | +5.1%1/2 up | +1.7%1/2 up |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 87 | — | +1.3%44/87 up | -1.6%41/87 up | -6.5%31/78 up | -22.0%23/68 up |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is CRWV's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session or today, from the live quote.
Volume spike
Volume at least 3x the prior 20 sessions' average.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 7 | +0.47% | 4 of 7 | +0.70% |
-3%
+11%
|
|
| 1 week | 7 | +11.13% | 4 of 7 | +10.05% |
-16%
+59%
|
|
| 1 month | 6 ≈5 indep. | +22.57% | 4 of 6 | +17.09% |
-17%
+118%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 5 ≈4 indep. | -3.39% | 2 of 5 | -14.71% |
-14%
+48%
|
Range of outcomes: all of CRWV's volume spikes in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Volume spike by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 1 | -1.3%1 events vs -1.7% | -15.7%1 events vs -5.9% | -17.4%1 events vs -11.8% | — |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 3 | +6.4%2 events vs 0.0% | +21.4%2 events vs +1.1% | +24.1%1 events vs +2.6% | -3.4%1 events vs +16.1% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 2 | +4.8%2 events vs -0.8% | +7.2%2 events vs -3.9% | +3.3%2 events vs -12.2% | -3.4%1 events vs -23.8% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 4 | +0.5%3 events vs -0.9% | -8.8%3 events vs +2.7% | +10.0%2 events vs +7.2% | -2.9%2 events vs +3.2% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 4 | +0.6%4 events vs -0.5% | +20.5%4 events vs -0.9% | +48.2%4 events vs -5.1% | -3.4%3 events vs -22.0% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 4 | +0.5%3 events vs -0.7% | -8.8%3 events vs +1.1% | +10.0%2 events vs +0.8% | -2.9%2 events vs +0.9% |
The same event split by where CRWV stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Latest volume spikes
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 14 @ $65.78 | 3.5x average volume, -15.5% on the day | … | … | … | … |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 17 @ $79.88 | 3.8x average volume, -4.2% on the day | +1.9% | +12.8% | … | … |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Aug 12 @ $107.73 | 3.1x average volume, +19.3% on the day | -1.3% | -15.7% | -17.4% | … |
| Apr 9, 2026 | Apr 9 @ $92.00 | 3.0x average volume, +3.5% on the day | +10.9% | +30.0% | +24.1% | -3.4% |
| Nov 11, 2025 | Nov 11 @ $88.39 | 3.3x average volume, -16.3% on the day | -3.3% | -15.3% | -1.1% | +8.3% |
| Aug 14, 2025 | Aug 14 @ $99.50 | 3.6x average volume, -15.5% on the day | +0.5% | -8.8% | +21.1% | -14.1% |
| May 22, 2025 | May 22 @ $100.16 | 3.5x average volume, -6.7% on the day | +2.6% | +11.1% | +72.3% | -6.2% |
| May 14, 2025 | May 14 @ $67.46 | 3.1x average volume, +6.6% on the day | -2.5% | +59.2% | +118.2% | +47.5% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.