DJT
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | — | -0.4%549/1254 up | -1.3%551/1250 up | -4.8%452/1234 up | -11.5%388/1192 up |
| Big drop Oct 28 (-5.1% or worse) | 57 | — | +0.1%29/57 up | -3.3%21/56 up | -3.3%23/55 up | -6.5%20/53 up |
| Big gain (+4.2% or better) | 48 | — | -1.4%18/48 up | -3.9%18/48 up | -1.6%22/48 up | -10.0%18/47 up |
| Earnings beat | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high | 2 | — | +8.7%2/2 up | +55.6%1/2 up | +30.6%1/2 up | -15.1%1/2 up |
| 52-week low latest session | 11 | — | -0.9%5/11 up | +0.8%7/11 up | -0.7%5/10 up | -6.8%3/10 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 7 | — | +3.8%4/7 up | +2.8%5/7 up | +2.6%4/7 up | -17.8%3/7 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 8 | — | +2.3%7/8 up | +4.4%6/8 up | +7.5%6/8 up | -2.7%3/8 up |
| RSI oversold | 17 | — | -2.9%7/17 up | -2.4%6/17 up | -2.8%7/16 up | -6.1%2/16 up |
| RSI overbought | 11 | — | -5.1%2/11 up | -4.7%4/11 up | -8.1%4/11 up | +2.2%6/11 up |
| Volume spike | 35 | — | -1.7%15/35 up | -1.3%15/35 up | +0.7%18/35 up | -8.6%14/35 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Theme rally hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mention spike (Trendy) latest session | 29 | — | -1.1%12/29 up | -3.4%14/29 up | -9.6%10/29 up | -19.5%5/29 up |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | 1 | — | -0.2%0/1 up | +11.5%1/1 up | +39.2%1/1 up | +2.7%1/1 up |
| Insider unplanned sale | 2 | — | -0.8%1/2 up | +1.2%1/2 up | +17.7%1/2 up | -21.0%0/2 up |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is DJT's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session or today, from the live quote.
Any day
Every session: the plain holding return, the baseline for the events below.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 1254 | -0.38% | 549 of 1254 | -0.45% |
-28%
+88%
|
|
| 1 week | 1250 ≈250 indep. | -1.31% | 551 of 1250 | -1.60% |
-39%
+187%
|
|
| 1 month | 1234 ≈59 indep. | -4.78% | 452 of 1234 | -6.52% |
-51%
+221%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 1192 ≈19 indep. | -11.54% | 388 of 1192 | -15.86% |
-68%
+264%
|
Range of outcomes: all of DJT's days in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Any day by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 268 | -0.4%268 events vs -0.4% | -1.8%268 events vs -1.8% | -4.0%268 events vs -4.0% | -2.9%268 events vs -2.9% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 788 | -0.4%787 events vs -0.4% | -1.5%783 events vs -1.5% | -4.9%767 events vs -4.9% | -9.7%725 events vs -9.7% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 433 | -0.4%433 events vs -0.4% | -2.3%433 events vs -2.3% | -6.9%433 events vs -6.9% | -24.9%415 events vs -24.9% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 773 | -0.4%772 events vs -0.4% | -1.0%768 events vs -1.0% | -4.1%752 events vs -4.1% | -10.9%728 events vs -10.9% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 486 | -0.5%486 events vs -0.5% | -2.3%486 events vs -2.3% | -6.0%486 events vs -6.0% | -18.7%465 events vs -18.7% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 750 | -0.3%749 events vs -0.3% | -0.6%745 events vs -0.6% | -3.4%729 events vs -3.4% | -9.6%708 events vs -9.6% |
The same event split by where DJT stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.