DJT
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | — | -0.4%549/1254 up | -1.3%551/1250 up | -4.8%452/1234 up | -11.5%388/1192 up |
| Big drop Oct 28 (-5.1% or worse) | 57 | — | +0.1%29/57 up | -3.3%21/56 up | -3.3%23/55 up | -6.5%20/53 up |
| Big gain (+4.2% or better) | 48 | — | -1.4%18/48 up | -3.9%18/48 up | -1.6%22/48 up | -10.0%18/47 up |
| Earnings beat | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high | 2 | — | +8.7%2/2 up | +55.6%1/2 up | +30.6%1/2 up | -15.1%1/2 up |
| 52-week low latest session | 11 | — | -0.9%5/11 up | +0.8%7/11 up | -0.7%5/10 up | -6.8%3/10 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 7 | — | +3.8%4/7 up | +2.8%5/7 up | +2.6%4/7 up | -17.8%3/7 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 8 | — | +2.3%7/8 up | +4.4%6/8 up | +7.5%6/8 up | -2.7%3/8 up |
| RSI oversold | 17 | — | -2.9%7/17 up | -2.4%6/17 up | -2.8%7/16 up | -6.1%2/16 up |
| RSI overbought | 11 | — | -5.1%2/11 up | -4.7%4/11 up | -8.1%4/11 up | +2.2%6/11 up |
| Volume spike | 35 | — | -1.7%15/35 up | -1.3%15/35 up | +0.7%18/35 up | -8.6%14/35 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Theme rally hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mention spike (Trendy) latest session | 29 | — | -1.1%12/29 up | -3.4%14/29 up | -9.6%10/29 up | -19.5%5/29 up |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | 1 | — | -0.2%0/1 up | +11.5%1/1 up | +39.2%1/1 up | +2.7%1/1 up |
| Insider unplanned sale | 2 | — | -0.8%1/2 up | +1.2%1/2 up | +17.7%1/2 up | -21.0%0/2 up |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is DJT's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session or today, from the live quote.
RSI oversold
The 14-day RSI falls below 30.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 17 | -2.88% | 7 of 17 | -1.79% |
-17%
+13%
|
|
| 1 week | 17 | -2.41% | 6 of 17 | -2.50% |
-20%
+25%
|
|
| 1 month | 16 ≈15 indep. | -2.81% | 7 of 16 | -2.19% |
-34%
+75%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 16 ≈10 indep. | -6.08% | 2 of 16 | -15.34% |
-58%
+105%
|
Range of outcomes: all of DJT's oversold readings in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
RSI oversold by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 1 | -14.6%1 events vs -0.4% | +25.4%1 events vs -1.8% | +11.8%1 events vs -4.0% | -50.1%1 events vs -2.9% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 13 | -0.9%13 events vs -0.4% | -2.4%13 events vs -1.5% | -4.8%12 events vs -4.9% | -2.8%12 events vs -9.7% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 17 | -2.9%17 events vs -0.4% | -2.4%17 events vs -1.0% | -2.8%16 events vs -4.1% | -6.1%16 events vs -10.9% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 17 | -2.9%17 events vs -0.3% | -2.4%17 events vs -0.6% | -2.8%16 events vs -3.4% | -6.1%16 events vs -9.6% |
The same event split by where DJT stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Latest oversold readings
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 13 @ $7.75 | RSI 29.9, -2.8% on the day | -6.8% | -16.5% | … | … |
| Mar 19, 2026 | Mar 19 @ $8.66 | RSI 27.2, -5.2% on the day | -0.9% | -0.8% | +17.8% | -2.0% |
| Feb 17, 2026 | Feb 17 @ $9.91 | RSI 28.2, -9.7% on the day | +5.8% | +7.3% | -7.9% | -16.5% |
| Nov 3, 2025 | Nov 3 @ $14.52 | RSI 29.8, -5.2% on the day | -4.8% | -7.5% | -20.7% | -14.2% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | Aug 6 @ $16.25 | RSI 29.8, -0.8% on the day | +5.4% | +10.6% | +2.6% | -15.0% |
| Jun 20, 2025 | Jun 20 @ $17.83 | RSI 28.9, -4.0% on the day | +0.3% | -2.4% | +11.4% | -2.2% |
| Feb 24, 2025 | Feb 24 @ $25.73 | RSI 29.4, -4.7% on the day | -7.5% | -9.8% | -11.1% | 0.0% |
| Sep 11, 2024 | Sep 11 @ $16.68 | RSI 30.0, -10.5% on the day | -3.6% | -6.4% | +44.6% | +104.8% |
| Aug 20, 2024 | Aug 20 @ $21.41 | RSI 28.5, -3.7% on the day | +13.0% | -2.0% | -31.4% | +53.1% |
| Jun 18, 2024 | Jun 18 @ $31.31 | RSI 29.2, -9.8% on the day | -14.6% | +25.4% | +11.8% | -50.1% |
| Mar 13, 2023 | Mar 13 @ $13.23 | RSI 26.0, -3.6% on the day | +0.2% | +4.8% | -1.7% | -3.3% |
| Oct 10, 2022 | Oct 10 @ $16.01 | RSI 29.7, -7.6% on the day | +0.8% | +0.6% | +75.4% | -0.2% |
| Sep 20, 2022 | Sep 20 @ $18.61 | RSI 22.3, -16.9% on the day | -3.8% | -9.1% | -12.6% | -8.3% |
| Aug 29, 2022 | Aug 29 @ $25.32 | RSI 27.2, -8.0% on the day | -2.9% | -12.6% | -33.9% | -3.8% |
| Jun 14, 2022 | Jun 14 @ $27.30 | RSI 20.2, -28.2% on the day | +10.4% | +2.2% | +9.9% | -11.4% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.