EL
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- EL +5.44% on the last session vs SPY +0.32%: +5.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, rsi overbought (RSI 71 today so far, above 70): After its 6 overbought readings in the past 5 years, EL was higher a day later 1 time out of 6; half the outcomes fell between -2.2% and -1.1%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (1 positive, 1 negative); latest: Barclays upgraded to Overweight, raised target $97.00 → $108.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices EL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
103.87 +2.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
106.76 +5.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 107.12 · prior close 101.59 | |
| Bargain buy side |
99.36 -2.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
96.67 -4.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 98.65 | 2 in 10 days | 104.62 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 99.36 | 3 in 10 days | 103.87 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 100.03 | 4 in 10 days | 103.17 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 95.13 | 2 in 10 weeks | 108.49 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 96.67 | 3 in 10 weeks | 106.76 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 98.14 | 4 in 10 weeks | 105.17 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From EL's daily swings (about 2.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among EL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jan 4, 2022 |
344.90 +222.0% |
| Highest analyst target | 127.00 +18.6% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 4, 2026 |
118.37 +10.5% |
| Mean analyst target | 107.34 +0.2% |
| Now | 107.12 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 106.76 -0.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
101.59 -5.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 96.67 -9.8% |
| 50-day average | 96.09 -10.3% |
| 200-day average | 91.20 -14.9% |
| Lowest analyst target | 70.00 -34.7% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 27, 2026 |
66.74 -37.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 31 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.