FICO
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- FICO +4.96% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +4.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+5.0% today so far, past its big-gain line of +3.3%): After its 67 big gains in the past 5 years, FICO was higher a month later 43 times out of 67; half the outcomes fell between -5.8% and +9.3%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Wells Fargo maintained Overweight, lowered target $950 → $800.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices FICO only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
770.78 +7.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
839.05 +16.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 755.31 · prior close 719.63 | |
| Bargain buy side |
671.88 -6.6% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
617.21 -14.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 657.06 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 788.16 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 671.88 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 770.78 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 685.99 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 754.92 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 587.19 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 881.95 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 617.21 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 839.05 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 646.58 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 800.94 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From FICO's daily swings (about 7.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among FICO's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 26, 2024 |
2,382.40 +215.4% |
| 52-week closing high Dec 12, 2025 |
1,844.98 +144.3% |
| Highest analyst target | 1,750.00 +131.7% |
| 200-day average | 1,171.65 +55.1% |
| Mean analyst target | 1,113.47 +47.4% |
| 50-day average | 942.55 +24.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 839.05 +11.1% |
| Now | 755.31 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
719.63 -4.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 617.21 -18.3% |
| 52-week closing low Sep 30, 2026 |
592.47 -21.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 490.00 -35.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 39 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.