IBM
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- IBM −1.32% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −2.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 1): After its 70 big gains in the past 5 years, IBM typically gained 2.2% over the next month (median) and was higher 61% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -3.3% and +8.6%. An ordinary month: +1.5%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big gains, that ranks #166 of 500.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#61 H | +0.5%#96 H | +1.5%#131 H | +6.1%#54 M |
| Big drop Sep 28 (-2.1% or worse) | 72 | -0.1%#427 H | +0.2%#393 H | +1.9%#175 H | +6.6%#99 M |
| Big gain Oct 1 (+2.2% or better) | 72 | +0.1%#270 H | +0.6%#182 H | +2.2%#166 H | +5.3%#184 M |
| Earnings beat | 17 | -0.5%#486 M | -1.2%#483 M | +2.9%#44 M | +4.5%#103 M |
| Earnings miss | 2 | +0.5%– | -0.5%– | -3.4%– | -5.7%– |
| 52-week high | 15 | +0.4%#38 M | -0.7%#319 M | +1.0%#219 M | -1.6%#310 M |
| 52-week low | 2 | +0.8%– | -0.6%– | +19.2%– | +8.4%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 6 | +1.0%#126 L | +1.8%#114 L | +4.0%#189 L | +12.3%#93 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 7 | +0.8%#161 L | -1.1%#426 L | -5.8%#358 L | -1.9%#316 L |
| RSI oversold | 12 | +0.9%#65 M | 0.0%#369 M | +6.8%#25 M | +14.5%#5 M |
| RSI overbought | 24 | +0.4%#6 H | +0.7%#73 H | +1.1%#185 H | -0.4%#338 M |
| Reddit spike | 12 | +0.5%#30 M | +4.8%#19 M | +4.3%#31 M | -0.7%#57 M |
| Analyst upgrade | 4 | -1.3%#15 L | +3.1%#5 L | -3.3%#10 L | -6.2%#8 L |
| Analyst downgrade | 1 | +3.7%– | -2.6%– | +13.1%– | — |
| Insider buy | 3 | -0.7%– | +6.0%– | -2.3%– | +10.0%– |
| Insider unplanned sale | 1 | -1.1%– | -0.8%– | -6.0%– | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is IBM's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Big drop (-2.1% or worse)
A daily fall among the stock's own worst 10% of the prior 2 years.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 72 | -0.05% (-0.3 to +0.1) | High | #427 of 500 | 49% | -0.19% |
-5%
+5%
|
|
| 1 week | 71 | +0.20% (-0.3 to +0.8) | High | #393 of 500 | 52% | -0.27% |
-26%
+9%
|
|
| 1 month | 69 ≈41 indep. | +1.90% (+0.7 to +3.8) | High | #175 of 500 | 61% | -0.04% |
-20%
+22%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 65 ≈15 indep. | +6.61% (+1.3 to +8.0) | Medium | #99 of 499 | 65% | -0.15% |
-24%
+30%
|
Range of outcomes: all of IBM's big drops in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Big drop by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 50 | 0.0%H vs +0.1% | +0.2%H vs +0.6% | +1.5%H vs +1.2% | +4.1%M vs +5.8% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 22 | -0.2%H vs +0.1% | 0.0%H vs +0.5% | +3.8%M vs +2.4% | +9.5%L vs +11.3% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 33 | -0.1%H vs +0.2% | +0.2%H vs +0.4% | +1.9%H vs +0.9% | +2.4%M vs +1.5% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 39 | 0.0%H vs +0.1% | +0.1%H vs +0.6% | +1.8%H vs +2.3% | +11.1%M vs +12.7% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 28 | +0.2%H vs +0.2% | -0.2%H vs +0.6% | +1.8%H vs +1.7% | +5.1%M vs +2.7% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 44 | -0.2%H vs +0.1% | +0.7%H vs +0.4% | +2.1%H vs +1.7% | +7.4%M vs +9.9% |
The same event split by where IBM stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest big drops
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | Sep 28 @ $220.67 | -2.1% on the day (line -2.1%) | -0.3% | … | … | … |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 18 @ $229.55 | -3.5% on the day (line -2.1%) | +1.0% | -1.8% | … | … |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 10 @ $234.02 | -2.5% on the day (line -2.0%) | +4.0% | +1.6% | … | … |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Aug 17 @ $228.85 | -2.3% on the day (line -1.9%) | +1.7% | +1.0% | +3.8% | … |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Jul 30 @ $220.16 | -2.1% on the day (line -1.9%) | +0.9% | +5.3% | +7.0% | … |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Jul 17 @ $211.16 | -2.9% on the day (line -1.9%) | +0.2% | +0.7% | +8.4% | … |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Jul 9 @ $293.20 | -2.2% on the day (line -1.8%) | -2.6% | -25.8% | -19.6% | … |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Jun 17 @ $260.48 | -3.1% on the day (line -1.8%) | -5.1% | -1.6% | -18.8% | -8.7% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Jun 3 @ $303.45 | -7.2% on the day (line -1.7%) | -1.3% | -10.9% | -2.0% | -23.6% |
| May 11, 2026 | May 11 @ $221.96 | -2.7% on the day (line -1.7%) | -1.9% | -0.4% | +21.8% | +7.4% |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Apr 23 @ $227.76 | -8.2% on the day (line -1.6%) | +0.4% | 0.0% | +10.7% | -6.6% |
| Apr 9, 2026 | Apr 9 @ $233.77 | -1.9% on the day (line -1.6%) | -2.7% | +5.8% | -2.4% | +22.1% |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Mar 27 @ $232.94 | -2.2% on the day (line -1.6%) | +0.4% | +4.4% | -1.4% | +18.5% |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Mar 18 @ $247.98 | -1.8% on the day (line -1.6%) | -0.5% | -4.1% | +0.7% | +5.0% |
| Mar 9, 2026 | Mar 9 @ $249.69 | -2.1% on the day (line -1.6%) | -1.2% | -1.6% | -4.6% | +11.7% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.