MELI
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,254 | — | +0.1%649/1253 up | 0.0%624/1249 up | +0.1%623/1233 up | +2.4%661/1191 up |
| Big drop latest session (-2.7% or worse) | 49 | — | +0.3%26/48 up | -0.2%22/48 up | +1.5%29/48 up | +4.8%28/45 up |
| Big gain (+2.7% or better) | 47 | — | -0.1%19/47 up | +1.3%27/47 up | +0.2%24/46 up | +2.5%25/44 up |
| Earnings beat | 13 | +6.5%10/13 up | +0.2%7/13 up | +3.9%8/13 up | +1.6%9/13 up | +8.5%8/12 up |
| Earnings miss | 7 | -8.1%3/7 up | +0.4%4/7 up | +0.3%5/7 up | +0.4%4/7 up | -3.8%3/7 up |
| 52-week high | 12 | — | -0.7%5/12 up | -3.0%3/12 up | -0.2%6/12 up | -1.1%6/12 up |
| 52-week low | 3 | — | +1.2%2/3 up | +1.8%3/3 up | +2.0%2/3 up | +5.2%2/3 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 11 | — | -1.2%2/11 up | +1.3%6/11 up | +5.6%8/10 up | +14.4%5/9 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg Oct 22 | 13 | — | -0.9%5/13 up | -0.9%4/12 up | +6.1%8/12 up | +22.9%7/10 up |
| RSI oversold | 7 | — | +0.4%4/7 up | +2.2%5/7 up | +7.0%6/7 up | +14.7%5/7 up |
| RSI overbought | 12 | — | -0.1%6/12 up | +2.0%7/12 up | -0.5%6/12 up | +4.3%8/12 up |
| Volume spike latest session | 13 | — | -0.7%4/12 up | 0.0%6/12 up | +0.5%8/12 up | +6.8%7/11 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | 25 | — | +0.3%13/25 up | -0.6%11/25 up | -2.6%8/24 up | -0.2%11/22 up |
| Theme rally hindsight | 32 | — | +0.5%20/32 up | -0.3%15/32 up | -0.5%14/31 up | +0.4%15/29 up |
| Mention spike (Trendy) latest session | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst upgrade | 2 | — | +0.2%1/2 up | -0.4%1/2 up | -3.9%1/2 up | -10.2%1/2 up |
| Analyst downgrade | 3 | — | +3.2%2/3 up | +4.3%2/3 up | +2.4%2/3 up | +4.8%2/3 up |
| Insider buy | 3 | — | 0.0%1/3 up | -0.9%1/3 up | +0.3%2/3 up | +9.9%2/3 up |
| Insider unplanned sale | 1 | — | -2.4%0/1 up | -0.9%0/1 up | +4.3%1/1 up | -14.3%0/1 up |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is MELI's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session or today, from the live quote.
Any day
Every session: the plain holding return, the baseline for the events below.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 1253 | +0.09% | 649 of 1253 | +0.01% |
-17%
+16%
|
|
| 1 week | 1249 ≈250 indep. | 0.00% | 624 of 1249 | -0.25% |
-34%
+33%
|
|
| 1 month | 1233 ≈59 indep. | +0.11% | 623 of 1233 | -0.51% |
-40%
+65%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 1191 ≈19 indep. | +2.38% | 661 of 1191 | -1.75% |
-47%
+58%
|
Range of outcomes: all of MELI's days in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Any day by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 714 | +0.1%714 events vs +0.1% | -0.2%712 events vs -0.2% | -0.3%701 events vs -0.3% | +4.4%680 events vs +4.4% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 341 | +0.2%340 events vs +0.2% | +0.8%338 events vs +0.8% | +3.2%333 events vs +3.2% | +2.3%312 events vs +2.3% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 636 | 0.0%636 events vs 0.0% | -0.3%635 events vs -0.3% | -1.1%631 events vs -1.1% | +0.2%598 events vs +0.2% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 569 | +0.2%568 events vs +0.2% | +0.3%565 events vs +0.3% | +3.0%553 events vs +3.0% | +6.5%544 events vs +6.5% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 608 | 0.0%608 events vs 0.0% | -0.6%605 events vs -0.6% | -1.3%594 events vs -1.3% | +0.1%573 events vs +0.1% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 627 | +0.2%626 events vs +0.2% | +0.6%625 events vs +0.6% | +1.8%620 events vs +1.8% | +5.5%599 events vs +5.5% |
The same event split by where MELI stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.