MELI
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,254 | — | +0.1%649/1253 up | 0.0%624/1249 up | +0.1%623/1233 up | +2.4%661/1191 up |
| Big drop latest session (-2.7% or worse) | 49 | — | +0.3%26/48 up | -0.2%22/48 up | +1.5%29/48 up | +4.8%28/45 up |
| Big gain (+2.7% or better) | 47 | — | -0.1%19/47 up | +1.3%27/47 up | +0.2%24/46 up | +2.5%25/44 up |
| Earnings beat | 13 | +6.5%10/13 up | +0.2%7/13 up | +3.9%8/13 up | +1.6%9/13 up | +8.5%8/12 up |
| Earnings miss | 7 | -8.1%3/7 up | +0.4%4/7 up | +0.3%5/7 up | +0.4%4/7 up | -3.8%3/7 up |
| 52-week high | 12 | — | -0.7%5/12 up | -3.0%3/12 up | -0.2%6/12 up | -1.1%6/12 up |
| 52-week low | 3 | — | +1.2%2/3 up | +1.8%3/3 up | +2.0%2/3 up | +5.2%2/3 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 11 | — | -1.2%2/11 up | +1.3%6/11 up | +5.6%8/10 up | +14.4%5/9 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg Oct 22 | 13 | — | -0.9%5/13 up | -0.9%4/12 up | +6.1%8/12 up | +22.9%7/10 up |
| RSI oversold | 7 | — | +0.4%4/7 up | +2.2%5/7 up | +7.0%6/7 up | +14.7%5/7 up |
| RSI overbought | 12 | — | -0.1%6/12 up | +2.0%7/12 up | -0.5%6/12 up | +4.3%8/12 up |
| Volume spike latest session | 13 | — | -0.7%4/12 up | 0.0%6/12 up | +0.5%8/12 up | +6.8%7/11 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | 25 | — | +0.3%13/25 up | -0.6%11/25 up | -2.6%8/24 up | -0.2%11/22 up |
| Theme rally hindsight | 32 | — | +0.5%20/32 up | -0.3%15/32 up | -0.5%14/31 up | +0.4%15/29 up |
| Mention spike (Trendy) latest session | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst upgrade | 2 | — | +0.2%1/2 up | -0.4%1/2 up | -3.9%1/2 up | -10.2%1/2 up |
| Analyst downgrade | 3 | — | +3.2%2/3 up | +4.3%2/3 up | +2.4%2/3 up | +4.8%2/3 up |
| Insider buy | 3 | — | 0.0%1/3 up | -0.9%1/3 up | +0.3%2/3 up | +9.9%2/3 up |
| Insider unplanned sale | 1 | — | -2.4%0/1 up | -0.9%0/1 up | +4.3%1/1 up | -14.3%0/1 up |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is MELI's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session or today, from the live quote.
RSI overbought
The 14-day RSI rises above 70.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 12 | -0.07% | 6 of 12 | -0.61% |
-2%
+6%
|
|
| 1 week | 12 | +1.99% | 7 of 12 | -0.10% |
-4%
+7%
|
|
| 1 month | 12 ≈11 indep. | -0.52% | 6 of 12 | +0.48% |
-17%
+14%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 12 ≈9 indep. | +4.31% | 8 of 12 | +1.02% |
-22%
+27%
|
Range of outcomes: all of MELI's overbought readings in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
RSI overbought by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 10 | +0.6%10 events vs +0.1% | +3.3%10 events vs -0.2% | +1.6%10 events vs -0.3% | +7.6%10 events vs +4.4% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 1 | -1.6%1 events vs +0.2% | -2.7%1 events vs +0.8% | -2.4%1 events vs +3.2% | +1.0%1 events vs +2.3% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 12 | -0.1%12 events vs 0.0% | +2.0%12 events vs -0.3% | -0.5%12 events vs -1.1% | +4.3%12 events vs +0.2% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | — | — | — | — | — |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 12 | -0.1%12 events vs 0.0% | +2.0%12 events vs -0.6% | -0.5%12 events vs -1.3% | +4.3%12 events vs +0.1% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | — | — | — | — | — |
The same event split by where MELI stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Latest overbought readings
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 14, 2026 | Jul 14 @ $1,873.88 | RSI 70.5, +0.3% on the day | -1.6% | -2.7% | -2.4% | +1.0% |
| May 9, 2025 | May 9 @ $2,450.00 | RSI 70.4, +1.7% on the day | +2.2% | +5.5% | -2.2% | -6.4% |
| Feb 10, 2025 | Feb 10 @ $2,042.22 | RSI 70.3, +2.3% on the day | -0.3% | +2.8% | -1.8% | +22.6% |
| Aug 13, 2024 | Aug 13 @ $1,916.20 | RSI 70.9, +0.8% on the day | -0.9% | +4.7% | +11.7% | +2.3% |
| May 3, 2024 | May 3 @ $1,630.56 | RSI 70.9, +8.3% on the day | +1.4% | +3.9% | 0.0% | +8.9% |
| Jan 22, 2024 | Jan 22 @ $1,756.30 | RSI 72.3, +1.7% on the day | +0.2% | +1.2% | -1.1% | -22.1% |
| Nov 20, 2023 | Nov 20 @ $1,481.99 | RSI 71.5, +2.4% on the day | +0.9% | +7.2% | +7.8% | +22.7% |
| Nov 3, 2023 | Nov 3 @ $1,387.79 | RSI 70.1, +5.2% on the day | -0.9% | -1.0% | +14.2% | +23.2% |
| Mar 7, 2023 | Mar 7 @ $1,264.91 | RSI 70.4, +0.7% on the day | -1.0% | -3.9% | -1.2% | -0.8% |
| Jan 31, 2023 | Jan 31 @ $1,181.69 | RSI 71.3, +1.7% on the day | +2.8% | -0.7% | +3.1% | +6.3% |
| Jan 12, 2023 | Jan 12 @ $1,024.31 | RSI 70.4, +9.3% on the day | +5.7% | +7.2% | +8.6% | +27.1% |
| Aug 4, 2022 | Aug 4 @ $1,034.83 | RSI 78.5, +16.2% on the day | -1.0% | -0.2% | -17.3% | -17.7% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.