MSFT
Moving with its megacap tech peers
- MSFT −1.93% on the last session vs SPY −1.11%: −0.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- News: Cloud peers fell 6.61% versus SPY's 1.11%, with MSFT down 1.93% amid broad tech weakness.
- Megacap tech basket -1.9% (-0.8 pts vs SPY; META -3.7%, GOOGL -2.5%, TSLA -2.1%, AMZN -1.9%): the stock moved with its peers.
- Aftermath, big drop (-1.9% on the day (line -1.8%)): After its 49 big drops in the past 5 years, MSFT was higher a week later 20 times out of 49; half the outcomes fell between -3.2% and +1.3%. History, not a forecast.
- 27 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 67% positive over the week.
- 7 analyst actions in the past 10 days (7 positive, 0 negative); latest: StoneX maintained Buy, raised target $525 → $600.
- 4 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Thu): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | — | +0.1%651/1254 up | +0.4%697/1250 up | +0.8%664/1234 up | +1.5%661/1192 up |
| Big drop latest session (-1.8% or worse) | 50 | — | +0.1%26/50 up | -0.6%20/49 up | +0.9%28/49 up | +0.5%25/46 up |
| Big gain (+1.9% or better) | 62 | — | +0.1%33/62 up | +0.3%34/62 up | +1.4%38/60 up | +5.1%38/56 up |
| Earnings beat | 18 | +0.4%9/18 up | +0.2%10/18 up | +2.0%12/18 up | +3.5%11/18 up | +1.7%10/17 up |
| Earnings miss | 1 | +6.7%1/1 up | +2.9%1/1 up | +5.1%1/1 up | +4.0%1/1 up | -6.5%0/1 up |
| 52-week high Oct 12 | 12 | — | +0.3%7/12 up | +1.0%9/11 up | +3.1%7/11 up | +4.0%6/11 up |
| 52-week low | 3 | — | +0.1%2/3 up | +2.2%3/3 up | +10.3%2/3 up | +24.6%3/3 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 10 | — | +0.4%6/10 up | -0.3%4/10 up | +2.1%6/10 up | +5.0%6/9 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 7 | — | +1.1%4/7 up | +0.7%4/7 up | +0.5%4/7 up | +3.3%4/7 up |
| RSI oversold | 10 | — | +0.3%6/10 up | +3.4%6/10 up | +1.8%6/10 up | -0.6%4/10 up |
| RSI overbought Oct 13 | 21 | — | -0.2%7/21 up | +0.5%12/20 up | +2.0%12/20 up | +2.9%10/18 up |
| Volume spike | 8 | — | -0.6%2/8 up | -2.0%3/8 up | -1.0%4/8 up | +1.7%5/7 up |
| Theme selloff latest session hindsight | 67 | — | +0.1%38/66 up | +0.8%39/66 up | +1.4%40/65 up | +3.8%36/62 up |
| Theme rally hindsight | 78 | — | +0.1%40/78 up | +0.5%47/78 up | +1.6%45/78 up | +4.6%49/74 up |
| Mention spike (Trendy) Oct 13 | 93 | — | 0.0%48/93 up | -0.1%46/92 up | +1.6%51/91 up | +2.9%51/87 up |
| Analyst upgrade | 2 | — | +1.8%1/2 up | -1.1%1/2 up | -10.3%0/1 up | -19.9%0/1 up |
| Analyst downgrade | 2 | — | +0.8%1/2 up | -0.1%1/2 up | +0.7%1/2 up | -8.5%1/2 up |
| Insider buy | 2 | — | 0.0%1/2 up | +1.5%2/2 up | -4.0%0/2 up | -5.8%1/2 up |
| Insider unplanned sale | 8 | — | +0.1%6/8 up | -0.8%3/8 up | -4.2%1/8 up | -0.4%3/7 up |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is MSFT's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session or today, from the live quote.
Theme rally
The stock's theme peers (equal weight, without the stock) beat the S&P 500 by one of their best 10% gaps of the prior 2 years, and by at least 2 pts.
Hindsight: the history below is judged with today's theme lists, which were set on Oct 7, 2026 and hold the stocks that belong to each story now, including ones that didn't back then. So there is no S&P 500 comparison. The clean record starts on Oct 7, 2026: 0 theme rallies since then; its record shows once there are 3.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 78 | +0.08% | 40 of 78 | +0.04% |
-4%
+5%
|
— |
| 1 week | 78 | +0.52% | 47 of 78 | +0.33% |
-14%
+14%
|
— |
| 1 month | 78 ≈41 indep. | +1.56% | 45 of 78 | +0.06% |
-17%
+30%
|
— |
| 1 quarter | 74 ≈15 indep. | +4.58% | 49 of 74 | -1.96% |
-23%
+38%
|
— |
Range of outcomes: all of MSFT's theme rallies in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Theme rally by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 48 | +0.1%48 events vs +0.1% | +0.8%48 events vs +0.5% | +1.4%48 events vs +1.8% | +1.7%45 events vs +2.2% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 30 | +0.1%30 events vs 0.0% | 0.0%30 events vs +0.3% | +1.9%30 events vs -0.2% | +15.5%29 events vs +6.2% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 45 | 0.0%45 events vs 0.0% | +0.8%45 events vs +0.5% | +1.7%45 events vs +1.1% | +3.6%42 events vs +3.5% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 33 | +0.2%33 events vs +0.1% | +0.2%33 events vs +0.1% | +1.4%33 events vs +0.3% | +5.7%32 events vs +0.9% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 50 | +0.1%50 events vs 0.0% | +0.6%50 events vs +0.3% | +2.2%50 events vs +0.8% | +4.6%46 events vs +1.4% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 28 | +0.1%28 events vs +0.1% | +0.3%28 events vs +0.4% | +1.2%28 events vs +0.5% | +4.6%28 events vs +2.0% |
The same event split by where MSFT stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Latest theme rallies
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | Sep 4 @ $499.70 | Cloud peers +3.4 pts vs SPY; the stock -2.0% | -1.2% | +1.1% | +5.9% | … |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Aug 12 @ $491.50 | Cloud peers +11.1 pts vs SPY; the stock -2.3% | +0.9% | -1.6% | +0.8% | … |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Jul 30 @ $450.25 | Cloud peers +10.3 pts vs SPY; the stock +15.5% | +3.0% | +10.8% | +14.1% | … |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Jul 21 @ $397.00 | Cloud peers +5.2 pts vs SPY; the stock -1.1% | -1.9% | -1.1% | +21.8% | … |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Jul 8 @ $382.62 | Cloud peers +3.4 pts vs SPY; the stock -1.4% | +0.3% | +3.2% | +30.4% | +38.3% |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Jun 15 @ $399.01 | Cloud peers +3.9 pts vs SPY; the stock +2.3% | -1.5% | -6.5% | +0.3% | +24.6% |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Jun 1 @ $459.65 | Cloud peers +6.5 pts vs SPY; the stock +2.3% | -4.2% | -10.6% | -16.6% | +10.4% |
| May 21, 2026 | May 21 @ $418.30 | Cloud peers +4.3 pts vs SPY; the stock -0.2% | -0.1% | +7.4% | -10.8% | +15.5% |
| May 13, 2026 | May 13 @ $403.57 | Cloud peers +4.7 pts vs SPY; the stock -0.6% | +1.0% | +3.9% | -3.4% | +22.9% |
| May 1, 2026 | May 1 @ $412.77 | Cloud peers +5.0 pts vs SPY; the stock +1.6% | -0.2% | +0.2% | +6.7% | +17.9% |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Apr 10 @ $369.37 | Cloud peers +3.9 pts vs SPY; the stock -0.6% | +3.6% | +14.0% | +11.3% | +5.7% |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Mar 31 @ $368.68 | Cloud peers +5.0 pts vs SPY; the stock +3.1% | -0.2% | +1.1% | +10.2% | +4.0% |
| Mar 16, 2026 | Mar 16 @ $398.34 | Cloud peers +3.9 pts vs SPY; the stock +1.1% | -0.1% | -4.2% | +2.8% | +0.2% |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Mar 4 @ $403.56 | Cloud peers +4.6 pts vs SPY; the stock +0.3% | +1.4% | -0.1% | -7.8% | +5.7% |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Feb 6 @ $398.61 | Cloud peers +4.8 pts vs SPY; the stock +1.9% | +3.1% | 0.0% | +1.4% | +3.7% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.