NFLX

Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet

• NFLX −1.16% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −1.9 pts of stock-specific move.
• Aftermath, mention spike (trendy) (Oct 2): After its 42 mention spikes in the past 5 years, NFLX typically gained 3.2% over the next month (median) and was higher 57% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -5.3% and +8.6%. An ordinary month: +1.4%. Among S&P 500 stocks after mention spikes, that ranks #11 of 91.
• 4 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 75% positive over the week.
• 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (2 positive, 0 negative); latest: Guggenheim maintained Buy, raised target $75.00 → $80.00.
• 3 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
• Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.