NKE
Reddit attention is surging
- NKE +5.20% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +5.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+5.2% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.5%): After its 56 big gains in the past 5 years, NKE was higher a day later 31 times out of 56; half the outcomes fell between -1.2% and +1.2%. History, not a forecast.
- 12 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 75% positive over the week · today's pace is 1.5× its recent daily average.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Barclays maintained Overweight, lowered target $48.00 → $37.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices NKE only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
35.82 +1.5% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
36.48 +3.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 37.13 · prior close 35.30 | |
| Bargain buy side |
34.79 -1.5% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
34.16 -3.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 34.62 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 35.99 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 34.79 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 35.82 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 34.94 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 35.66 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 33.80 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 36.87 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 34.16 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 36.48 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 34.50 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 36.12 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From NKE's daily swings (about 1.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among NKE's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 5, 2021 |
161.97 +336.2% |
| Highest analyst target | 94.00 +153.1% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 23, 2025 |
67.46 +81.7% |
| 200-day average | 46.75 +25.9% |
| Mean analyst target | 37.88 +2.0% |
| 50-day average | 37.49 +1.0% |
| Now | 37.13 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 36.48 -1.8% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
35.30 -4.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 34.16 -8.0% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 2, 2026 |
33.87 -8.8% |
| Lowest analyst target | 19.00 -48.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 46 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.