NRG
Moving with the market
- NRG +0.64% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +0.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 14): After its 72 big drops in the past 5 years, NRG was higher a week later 43 times out of 72; half the outcomes fell between -1.4% and +5.7%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices NRG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
104.01 +3.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
108.06 +7.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 101.50 · prior close 100.85 | |
| Bargain buy side |
97.78 -3.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
94.12 -6.7% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 96.81 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 105.06 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 97.78 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 104.01 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 98.70 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 103.05 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 92.03 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 110.52 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 94.12 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 108.06 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 96.11 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 105.83 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From NRG's daily swings (about 3.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | -3.4% | -0.2% | — | — |
| Sep 9, 2026 | -3.6% | -6.9% | -7.8% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -5.6% | -1.7% | -8.1% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | -6.5% | -7.9% | -8.6% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -3.7% | +7.7% | -4.6% | -23.8% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -3.6% | -0.2% | -4.6% | -31.8% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | -7.2% | +9.5% | +15.6% | -7.1% |
| Jun 1, 2026 | -3.4% | -1.4% | +8.8% | -14.6% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among NRG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 270.00 +166.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 185.50 +82.8% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Feb 24, 2026 |
182.82 +80.1% |
| 200-day average | 137.82 +35.8% |
| 50-day average | 109.52 +7.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 108.06 +6.5% |
| Lowest analyst target | 104.00 +2.5% |
| Now | 101.50 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
100.85 -0.6% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 2, 2026 |
95.23 -6.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 94.12 -7.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 23 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.