NSC
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- NSC +2.31% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +1.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 2): After its 59 big gains in the past 5 years, NSC typically gained 0.4% over the next week (median) and was higher 53% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -1.9% and +2.8%. An ordinary week: +0.3%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big gains, that ranks #263 of 500.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#148 H | +0.3%#248 H | +0.4%#316 H | +1.7%#276 M |
| Big drop (-1.4% or worse) | 48 | -0.1%#403 H | -0.2%#388 H | 0.0%#417 H | +4.1%#257 M |
| Big gain latest session (+1.7% or better) | 60 | 0.0%#380 H | +0.4%#263 H | +1.1%#300 H | +5.7%#107 M |
| Earnings beat | 14 | +0.4%#14 M | +0.5%#218 M | +0.3%#352 M | +3.1%#206 M |
| Earnings miss | 6 | +0.5%#20 L | +2.4%#14 L | +3.5%#104 L | -4.5%#206 L |
| 52-week high | 12 | 0.0%#291 M | -1.0%#427 M | -0.9%#476 M | -0.1%#332 L |
| 52-week low | 5 | -0.3%#159 L | +5.3%#8 L | +9.3%#32 L | +25.9%#2 L |
| Crossed above 200-day avg Oct 1 | 12 | +0.4%#85 M | -0.3%#441 M | +3.4%#110 M | +4.2%#230 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg Sep 30 | 11 | +0.1%#262 M | +0.9%#166 M | +2.6%#184 M | +2.1%#282 M |
| RSI oversold | 11 | +0.4%#148 M | -0.6%#407 M | -2.9%#436 M | +10.8%#31 M |
| RSI overbought | 14 | 0.0%#235 M | +0.3%#69 M | -1.3%#487 M | +3.1%#157 M |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is NSC's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
RSI oversold
The 14-day RSI falls below 30.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 11 | +0.36% (-1.3 to +0.5) | Medium | #148 of 496 | 55% | -0.56% |
-3%
+2%
|
|
| 1 week | 11 | -0.63% (-1.8 to +2.6) | Medium | #407 of 496 | 36% | -1.06% |
-5%
+4%
|
|
| 1 month | 10 ≈8 indep. | -2.86% (-5.6 to +3.6) | Medium | #436 of 495 | 40% | -1.41% |
-8%
+18%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 10 ≈8 indep. | +10.76% (-0.4 to +12.7) | Medium | #31 of 493 | 70% | +1.38% |
-10%
+25%
|
Range of outcomes: all of NSC's oversold readings in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
RSI oversold by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 2 | +0.5%– vs 0.0% | -1.7%– vs +0.1% | +3.6%– vs +0.1% | +8.9%– vs +1.5% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 8 | -0.8%M vs +0.2% | -0.8%M vs +0.9% | -4.1%L vs +3.2% | +10.8%L vs +10.4% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 11 | +0.4%M vs +0.1% | -0.6%M vs +0.2% | -2.9%M vs +0.5% | +10.8%M vs +6.9% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | — | — | — | — | — |
| Below its 20-day avg | 11 | +0.4%M vs 0.0% | -0.6%M vs -0.2% | -2.9%M vs 0.0% | +10.8%M vs +3.3% |
The same event split by where NSC stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest oversold readings
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 16 @ $317.00 | RSI 29.8, -1.0% on the day | +0.6% | -0.6% | … | … |
| Mar 13, 2026 | Mar 13 @ $286.99 | RSI 29.7, -0.7% on the day | +0.5% | -2.9% | +3.6% | +8.9% |
| Apr 4, 2025 | Apr 4 @ $205.01 | RSI 27.3, -4.4% on the day | -1.4% | +3.5% | +4.3% | +24.6% |
| Mar 13, 2025 | Mar 13 @ $221.30 | RSI 29.9, -1.4% on the day | +2.0% | +2.6% | -4.1% | +11.1% |
| Dec 18, 2024 | Dec 18 @ $229.89 | RSI 27.0, -1.9% on the day | -3.0% | -0.3% | +5.9% | -0.4% |
| Jun 27, 2024 | Jun 27 @ $200.72 | RSI 29.0, -1.2% on the day | +2.3% | +2.8% | +18.0% | +17.0% |
| Sep 5, 2023 | Sep 5 @ $188.72 | RSI 29.5, -2.6% on the day | -1.3% | -1.3% | -4.0% | +14.2% |
| Aug 11, 2023 | Aug 11 @ $202.63 | RSI 29.3, -0.7% on the day | -0.2% | -1.8% | -8.0% | -9.6% |
| Mar 7, 2023 | Mar 7 @ $199.43 | RSI 29.4, -3.3% on the day | +0.5% | -3.3% | -5.6% | -0.7% |
| Sep 22, 2022 | Sep 22 @ $205.99 | RSI 29.6, -1.4% on the day | -3.1% | -4.5% | -7.4% | +10.4% |
| May 19, 2022 | May 19 @ $208.00 | RSI 29.7, -4.0% on the day | +0.4% | +3.8% | -1.7% | +12.7% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.