NU
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,224 | — | +0.1%621/1223 up | +0.4%637/1219 up | +2.0%686/1203 up | +7.3%713/1161 up |
| Big drop latest session (-2.9% or worse) | 47 | — | -0.3%22/46 up | +0.7%26/46 up | +4.8%29/45 up | +11.5%28/41 up |
| Big gain Oct 20 (+2.9% or better) | 45 | — | -0.3%21/45 up | -0.6%21/44 up | -1.2%18/42 up | +4.4%22/38 up |
| Earnings beat | 9 | +0.2%5/9 up | -3.1%3/9 up | -0.9%4/9 up | +1.6%5/9 up | +17.0%7/8 up |
| Earnings miss | 4 | +0.7%2/4 up | +1.4%3/4 up | -1.1%2/4 up | -3.1%2/4 up | +15.6%3/4 up |
| 52-week high | 14 | — | +0.1%7/14 up | -0.3%7/14 up | -1.5%6/14 up | +5.1%8/14 up |
| 52-week low | 2 | — | +4.4%2/2 up | +8.3%1/2 up | +9.7%1/2 up | +25.0%2/2 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 10 | — | -0.5%4/10 up | -2.1%4/10 up | -5.4%4/9 up | +3.9%4/8 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg latest session | 9 | — | -0.3%4/9 up | 0.0%4/9 up | -1.7%4/8 up | +13.2%4/7 up |
| RSI oversold | 10 | — | +0.9%6/10 up | -0.2%4/10 up | +8.0%6/9 up | +12.4%6/9 up |
| RSI overbought | 14 | — | +0.2%7/14 up | +0.6%7/14 up | +1.6%8/14 up | -1.7%6/14 up |
| Volume spike latest session | 16 | — | -2.4%6/15 up | -0.6%5/15 up | -3.7%6/15 up | +7.6%9/15 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Theme rally hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mention spike (Trendy) latest session | 4 | — | -0.5%2/4 up | -1.7%2/4 up | -6.4%1/4 up | -7.4%1/3 up |
| Analyst upgrade | 1 | — | +5.3%1/1 up | -2.4%0/1 up | +8.0%1/1 up | -8.2%0/1 up |
| Analyst downgrade | 3 | — | +1.3%2/3 up | -2.0%0/3 up | +6.8%3/3 up | +20.4%2/2 up |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 4 | — | -2.7%1/4 up | +2.9%4/4 up | -3.3%1/4 up | +2.5%1/2 up |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is NU's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session or today, from the live quote.
Any day
Every session: the plain holding return, the baseline for the events below.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 1223 | +0.09% | 621 of 1223 | +0.05% |
-19%
+21%
|
|
| 1 week | 1219 ≈244 indep. | +0.36% | 637 of 1219 | +0.17% |
-36%
+46%
|
|
| 1 month | 1203 ≈58 indep. | +2.04% | 686 of 1203 | +0.48% |
-52%
+47%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 1161 ≈19 indep. | +7.30% | 713 of 1161 | +4.26% |
-64%
+85%
|
Range of outcomes: all of NU's days in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Any day by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 667 | +0.1%667 events vs +0.1% | +0.4%663 events vs +0.4% | +2.2%654 events vs +2.2% | +10.3%645 events vs +10.3% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 358 | +0.2%357 events vs +0.2% | +1.2%357 events vs +1.2% | +3.3%350 events vs +3.3% | +8.3%317 events vs +8.3% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 704 | +0.2%704 events vs +0.2% | +0.3%700 events vs +0.3% | +1.3%689 events vs +1.3% | +7.2%656 events vs +7.2% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 471 | 0.0%470 events vs 0.0% | +0.8%470 events vs +0.8% | +5.0%465 events vs +5.0% | +10.1%456 events vs +10.1% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 672 | +0.1%672 events vs +0.1% | +0.3%668 events vs +0.3% | +0.5%657 events vs +0.5% | +5.5%634 events vs +5.5% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 533 | +0.1%532 events vs +0.1% | +0.5%532 events vs +0.5% | +4.4%527 events vs +4.4% | +11.2%508 events vs +11.2% |
The same event split by where NU stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.