NU
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,224 | — | +0.1%621/1223 up | +0.4%637/1219 up | +2.0%686/1203 up | +7.3%713/1161 up |
| Big drop latest session (-2.9% or worse) | 47 | — | -0.3%22/46 up | +0.7%26/46 up | +4.8%29/45 up | +11.5%28/41 up |
| Big gain Oct 20 (+2.9% or better) | 45 | — | -0.3%21/45 up | -0.6%21/44 up | -1.2%18/42 up | +4.4%22/38 up |
| Earnings beat | 9 | +0.2%5/9 up | -3.1%3/9 up | -0.9%4/9 up | +1.6%5/9 up | +17.0%7/8 up |
| Earnings miss | 4 | +0.7%2/4 up | +1.4%3/4 up | -1.1%2/4 up | -3.1%2/4 up | +15.6%3/4 up |
| 52-week high | 14 | — | +0.1%7/14 up | -0.3%7/14 up | -1.5%6/14 up | +5.1%8/14 up |
| 52-week low | 2 | — | +4.4%2/2 up | +8.3%1/2 up | +9.7%1/2 up | +25.0%2/2 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 10 | — | -0.5%4/10 up | -2.1%4/10 up | -5.4%4/9 up | +3.9%4/8 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg latest session | 9 | — | -0.3%4/9 up | 0.0%4/9 up | -1.7%4/8 up | +13.2%4/7 up |
| RSI oversold | 10 | — | +0.9%6/10 up | -0.2%4/10 up | +8.0%6/9 up | +12.4%6/9 up |
| RSI overbought | 14 | — | +0.2%7/14 up | +0.6%7/14 up | +1.6%8/14 up | -1.7%6/14 up |
| Volume spike latest session | 16 | — | -2.4%6/15 up | -0.6%5/15 up | -3.7%6/15 up | +7.6%9/15 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Theme rally hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mention spike (Trendy) latest session | 4 | — | -0.5%2/4 up | -1.7%2/4 up | -6.4%1/4 up | -7.4%1/3 up |
| Analyst upgrade | 1 | — | +5.3%1/1 up | -2.4%0/1 up | +8.0%1/1 up | -8.2%0/1 up |
| Analyst downgrade | 3 | — | +1.3%2/3 up | -2.0%0/3 up | +6.8%3/3 up | +20.4%2/2 up |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 4 | — | -2.7%1/4 up | +2.9%4/4 up | -3.3%1/4 up | +2.5%1/2 up |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is NU's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session or today, from the live quote.
Crossed below 200-day avg
The close moves below its 200-day moving average.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 9 | -0.34% | 4 of 9 | +0.25% |
-4%
+2%
|
|
| 1 week | 9 | 0.00% | 4 of 9 | +0.31% |
-4%
+6%
|
|
| 1 month | 8 | -1.70% | 4 of 8 | -1.27% |
-17%
+21%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 7 | +13.22% | 4 of 7 | +4.65% |
-13%
+73%
|
Range of outcomes: all of NU's crosses below the 200-day average in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Crossed below 200-day avg by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 4 | +0.1%4 events vs +0.2% | +0.1%4 events vs +0.3% | -6.3%3 events vs +1.3% | +2.0%2 events vs +7.2% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 5 | -1.4%5 events vs 0.0% | -0.6%5 events vs +0.8% | +8.0%5 events vs +5.0% | +13.2%5 events vs +10.1% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 3 | -0.3%3 events vs +0.1% | +0.1%3 events vs +0.3% | -11.0%2 events vs +0.5% | -10.1%1 events vs +5.5% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 6 | 0.0%6 events vs +0.1% | -0.3%6 events vs +0.5% | +5.5%6 events vs +4.4% | +13.6%6 events vs +11.2% |
The same event split by where NU stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Latest crosses below the 200-day average
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 @ $14.56 | -1.1% on the day | -0.3% | +4.1% | … | … |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Aug 17 @ $14.74 | -3.2% on the day | -2.6% | +0.1% | -6.3% | … |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Apr 15 @ $15.34 | -0.1% on the day | +0.6% | -3.2% | -15.7% | -10.1% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Feb 27 @ $14.98 | -0.5% on the day | +1.4% | -2.7% | -9.8% | -12.3% |
| Jul 31, 2025 | Jul 31 @ $12.22 | -3.2% on the day | -1.4% | +1.6% | +21.1% | +31.7% |
| May 21, 2025 | May 21 @ $11.99 | -6.1% on the day | +2.2% | 0.0% | +2.9% | +14.0% |
| Feb 21, 2025 | Feb 21 @ $10.82 | -18.9% on the day | +1.8% | -0.6% | +8.0% | +13.2% |
| Nov 29, 2024 | Nov 29 @ $12.53 | -7.4% on the day | -4.2% | -4.0% | -17.3% | -13.2% |
| Mar 22, 2023 | Mar 22 @ $4.32 | -2.5% on the day | -1.4% | +6.0% | +15.5% | +73.4% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.