NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation · Technology · Semiconductors
$230.48
-2.94% today · -0.16% 1W
Oct 8 close or latest
PreviewWhy it's moving
Down on OpenAI revenue concerns
- NVDA −2.94% on the last session vs SPY −0.42%: −2.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- News: Investopedia reported worries about OpenAI's revenue rattling AI-related stocks. (investopedia.com)
- Semiconductors: Stocktwits reported chip stocks declining on TSMC capital expenditure concerns, citing TSM, MU, and NVDA. (Stocktwits)
- Semiconductors basket -3.2% (-2.8 pts vs SPY; ARM -6.5%, INTC -5.3%, MU -4.8%, AVGO -4.3%): the stock moved with its peers. Overnight: TSMC (Taipei) -1.4%.
- Aftermath, theme selloff (AI chips & networking peers -4.1 pts vs SPY; the stock -2.9%): After its 82 theme selloffs in the past 5 years, NVDA typically gained 3.7% over the next month (median) and was higher 67% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -2.1% and +11.8%. An ordinary month: +3.3%. Among S&P 500 stocks after theme selloffs, that ranks #5 of 81.
- 96 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 77% positive over the week.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 0 negative); latest: Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated Overweight, target $350.
- 3 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 1 insider sale not under a 10b5-1 plan.
- Market backdrop (Wed): Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15-16, 2026; S&P futures +0.03%, 10-year yield -1bp in the 30 minutes after.
Assembled from Wallsti's own signals and the session's headlines and filings read by AI (Claude); it can misread, so the sources are linked.
Latest session
Theme selloff
AI chips & networking peers -4.1 pts vs SPY; the stock -2.9%
After its 82 theme selloffs in the past 5 years, NVDA typically gained 3.7% over the next month (median) and was higher 67% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -2.1% and +11.8%. An ordinary month: +3.3%. Among S&P 500 stocks after theme selloffs, that ranks #5 of 81.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,254 | — | +0.3%#19 H | +1.2%#11 H | +3.3%#21 H | +10.2%#38 M |
| Big drop (-3.0% or worse) | 51 | — | 0.0%#269 H | +0.4%#262 H | +7.0%#32 H | +14.8%#98 M |
| Big gain (+3.2% or better) | 53 | — | +0.4%#114 H | +0.2%#247 H | +3.0%#174 H | +15.1%#66 M |
| Earnings beat | 18 | +0.3%#270 M | -1.8%#433 M | -1.1%#447 M | +0.7%#262 M | +15.1%#21 M |
| Earnings miss | 1 | -1.5%– | -1.7%– | +3.8%– | +3.7%– | +31.8%– |
| 52-week high Oct 5 | 18 | — | +0.3%#109 M | -0.7%#387 M | +2.8%#164 M | +10.9%#141 M |
| 52-week low | 1 | — | -0.7%– | +3.3%– | +18.9%– | +38.1%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 6 | — | +3.0%#114 L | +6.3%#194 L | +11.6%#137 L | +38.2%#90 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 5 | — | +2.6%#141 L | -3.0%#302 L | +10.9%#81 L | +18.4%#122 L |
| RSI oversold | 5 | — | +1.5%#177 L | +3.3%#181 L | +0.1%#289 L | +23.0%#170 L |
| RSI overbought | 20 | — | 0.0%#227 H | +0.8%#129 H | +8.8%#24 M | +22.8%#58 M |
| Volume spike | 2 | — | +5.7%– | +1.0%– | +10.6%– | +6.5%– |
| Theme selloff latest session | 84 | — | -0.1%#56 H | +1.5%#15 H | +3.7%#5 H | +13.0%#14 M |
| Theme rally Oct 6 | 103 | — | +0.5%#12 H | +1.5%#5 H | +4.0%#21 H | +14.9%#9 M |
| Mention spike (Trendy) Oct 5 | 108 | — | +0.3%#20 H | +1.8%#2 H | +3.4%#5 H | +14.4%#1 M |
| Analyst upgrade | 2 | — | +0.4%– | -0.2%– | +5.3%– | +2.1%– |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 11 | — | +0.4%#8 M | +1.3%#11 M | +3.8%#3 M | +6.9%#16 L |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is NVDA's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session or today, from the live quote.
Theme selloff
The stock's theme peers (equal weight, without the stock) fell behind the S&P 500 by one of their worst 10% gaps of the prior 2 years, and by at least 2 pts.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 83 | -0.10% (-0.9 to +0.3) | High | #56 of 81 | 46% | -0.08% |
-17%
+14%
|
|
| 1 week | 83 | +1.54% (+0.1 to +2.6) | High | #15 of 81 | 59% | +0.83% |
-16%
+19%
|
|
| 1 month | 82 ≈45 indep. | +3.67% (+2.1 to +5.2) | High | #5 of 81 | 67% | +3.06% |
-18%
+48%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 77 ≈15 indep. | +12.96% (+4.1 to +28.4) | Medium | #14 of 81 | 77% | +7.11% |
-22%
+90%
|
Range of outcomes: all of NVDA's theme selloffs in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Theme selloff by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 74 | -0.1%H vs +0.3% | +0.8%H vs +1.2% | +2.9%H vs +4.0% | +9.1%M vs +13.1% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 10 | +0.8%M vs +0.3% | +3.0%M vs +2.1% | +24.7%L vs +4.3% | +55.0%L vs +36.4% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 59 | 0.0%H vs +0.2% | +1.2%H vs +0.8% | +3.2%H vs +3.6% | +8.9%M vs +13.1% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 25 | -1.0%H vs +0.5% | +2.5%H vs +1.7% | +4.3%M vs +2.8% | +19.9%M vs +9.4% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 49 | -0.1%H vs +0.2% | +1.6%H vs +0.8% | +4.3%H vs +3.2% | +10.2%M vs +12.8% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 35 | -0.9%H vs +0.5% | +1.3%H vs +1.6% | +3.4%H vs +3.0% | +15.9%M vs +8.3% |
The same event split by where NVDA stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest theme selloffs
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Oct 8 @ $230.48 | AI chips & networking peers -4.1 pts vs SPY; the stock -2.9% | … | … | … | … |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 14 @ $210.96 | AI chips & networking peers -6.6 pts vs SPY; the stock -3.4% | +0.6% | +7.8% | … | … |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Aug 28 @ $217.31 | AI chips & networking peers -3.8 pts vs SPY; the stock -4.6% | +1.5% | +5.9% | +4.6% | … |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Aug 18 @ $219.49 | AI chips & networking peers -5.6 pts vs SPY; the stock -2.3% | -1.0% | -3.0% | -0.1% | … |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Aug 5 @ $218.97 | AI chips & networking peers -3.9 pts vs SPY; the stock +3.4% | -0.1% | +2.2% | +4.2% | … |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Jul 23 @ $208.53 | Megacap tech peers -4.3 pts vs SPY; the stock -1.6% | -0.9% | -6.6% | +2.9% | … |
| Jul 13, 2026 | Jul 13 @ $203.30 | AI chips & networking peers -5.8 pts vs SPY; the stock -3.5% | +4.1% | -0.1% | +6.9% | … |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Jul 1 @ $197.36 | AI chips & networking peers -5.7 pts vs SPY; the stock -1.2% | -1.4% | +2.6% | +1.6% | +15.7% |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Jun 22 @ $208.42 | Megacap tech peers -2.1 pts vs SPY; the stock -1.0% | -4.1% | -6.6% | +1.6% | +9.1% |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Jun 9 @ $207.96 | Semiconductors peers -2.2 pts vs SPY; the stock -0.2% | -3.7% | -0.4% | +1.3% | +7.4% |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Jun 1 @ $223.85 | Megacap tech peers -2.6 pts vs SPY; the stock +6.3% | -0.7% | -6.9% | -11.8% | -1.5% |
| May 15, 2026 | May 15 @ $224.81 | Semiconductors peers -2.5 pts vs SPY; the stock -4.4% | -1.3% | -4.4% | -7.8% | 0.0% |
| May 7, 2026 | May 7 @ $211.02 | AI chips & networking peers -4.8 pts vs SPY; the stock +1.8% | +1.7% | +11.5% | -1.2% | +6.0% |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Apr 27 @ $216.12 | AI chips & networking peers -4.5 pts vs SPY; the stock +4.0% | -1.6% | -8.4% | -1.9% | -8.9% |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Mar 26 @ $170.85 | AI chips & networking peers -3.8 pts vs SPY; the stock -4.2% | -2.2% | +3.6% | +26.5% | +12.6% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.