NVDA
Moving with its semiconductors peers
- NVDA −2.94% on the last session vs SPY −0.42%: −2.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Semiconductors basket -3.2% (-2.8 pts vs SPY; ARM -6.5%, INTC -5.3%, MU -4.8%, AVGO -4.3%): the stock moved with its peers. Overnight: TSMC (Taipei) -1.4%.
- Aftermath, theme selloff (AI chips & networking peers -4.1 pts vs SPY; the stock -2.9%): After its 82 theme selloffs in the past 5 years, NVDA typically gained 3.7% over the next month (median) and was higher 67% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -2.1% and +11.8%. An ordinary month: +3.3%. Among S&P 500 stocks after theme selloffs, that ranks #5 of 81.
- 100 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 77% positive over the week · today's pace is 1.3× its recent daily average.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 0 negative); latest: Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated Overweight, target $350.
- 3 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 1 insider sale not under a 10b5-1 plan.
- Market backdrop (Wed): Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15-16, 2026; S&P futures +0.03%, 10-year yield -1bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,254 | — | +0.3%#19 H | +1.2%#11 H | +3.3%#21 H | +10.2%#38 M |
| Big drop (-3.0% or worse) | 51 | — | 0.0%#269 H | +0.4%#262 H | +7.0%#32 H | +14.8%#98 M |
| Big gain (+3.2% or better) | 53 | — | +0.4%#114 H | +0.2%#247 H | +3.0%#174 H | +15.1%#66 M |
| Earnings beat | 18 | +0.3%#270 M | -1.8%#433 M | -1.1%#447 M | +0.7%#262 M | +15.1%#21 M |
| Earnings miss | 1 | -1.5%– | -1.7%– | +3.8%– | +3.7%– | +31.8%– |
| 52-week high Oct 5 | 18 | — | +0.3%#109 M | -0.7%#387 M | +2.8%#164 M | +10.9%#141 M |
| 52-week low | 1 | — | -0.7%– | +3.3%– | +18.9%– | +38.1%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 6 | — | +3.0%#114 L | +6.3%#194 L | +11.6%#137 L | +38.2%#90 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 5 | — | +2.6%#141 L | -3.0%#302 L | +10.9%#81 L | +18.4%#122 L |
| RSI oversold | 5 | — | +1.5%#177 L | +3.3%#181 L | +0.1%#289 L | +23.0%#170 L |
| RSI overbought | 20 | — | 0.0%#227 H | +0.8%#129 H | +8.8%#24 M | +22.8%#58 M |
| Volume spike | 2 | — | +5.7%– | +1.0%– | +10.6%– | +6.5%– |
| Theme selloff latest session | 84 | — | -0.1%#56 H | +1.5%#15 H | +3.7%#5 H | +13.0%#14 M |
| Theme rally Oct 6 | 103 | — | +0.5%#12 H | +1.5%#5 H | +4.0%#21 H | +14.9%#9 M |
| Mention spike (Trendy) Oct 5 | 108 | — | +0.3%#20 H | +1.8%#2 H | +3.4%#5 H | +14.4%#1 M |
| Analyst upgrade | 2 | — | +0.4%– | -0.2%– | +5.3%– | +2.1%– |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 11 | — | +0.4%#8 M | +1.3%#11 M | +3.8%#3 M | +6.9%#16 L |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is NVDA's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session or today, from the live quote.
Volume spike
Volume at least 3x the prior 20 sessions' average.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 2 | +5.73% | Too few | — | 100% | +4.66% |
+3%
+9%
|
|
| 1 week | 2 | +1.03% | Too few | — | 50% | -0.44% |
-1%
+4%
|
|
| 1 month | 2 | +10.56% | Too few | — | 100% | +8.18% |
+10%
+11%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 2 | +6.50% | Too few | — | 50% | +7.16% |
-8%
+21%
|
Range of outcomes: all of NVDA's volume spikes in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Volume spike by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 1 | +2.5%– vs +0.3% | +3.5%– vs +1.2% | +10.3%– vs +4.0% | +21.2%– vs +13.1% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 1 | +8.9%– vs +0.3% | -1.5%– vs +2.1% | +10.9%– vs +4.3% | -8.2%– vs +36.4% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 1 | +2.5%– vs +0.2% | +3.5%– vs +0.8% | +10.3%– vs +3.6% | +21.2%– vs +13.1% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 1 | +8.9%– vs +0.5% | -1.5%– vs +1.7% | +10.9%– vs +2.8% | -8.2%– vs +9.4% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 1 | +2.5%– vs +0.2% | +3.5%– vs +0.8% | +10.3%– vs +3.2% | +21.2%– vs +12.8% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 1 | +8.9%– vs +0.5% | -1.5%– vs +1.6% | +10.9%– vs +3.0% | -8.2%– vs +8.3% |
The same event split by where NVDA stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest volume spikes
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2025 | Jan 27 @ $118.11 | 4.1x average volume, -17.0% on the day | +8.9% | -1.5% | +10.9% | -8.2% |
| May 25, 2023 | May 25 @ $37.86 | 3.8x average volume, +24.4% on the day | +2.5% | +3.5% | +10.3% | +21.2% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.