NVR
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- NVR −2.16% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −2.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 2): After its 67 big drops in the past 5 years, NVR typically gained 0.6% over the next day (median) and was higher 60% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -0.8% and +1.3%. An ordinary day: +0.0%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big drops, that ranks #16 of 500.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | 0.0%#404 H | +0.2%#329 H | +0.4%#338 H | +1.9%#263 M |
| Big drop latest session (-2.1% or worse) | 68 | +0.6%#16 H | +0.2%#338 H | +0.4%#402 H | -0.3%#413 M |
| Big gain (+2.1% or better) | 64 | -0.6%#496 H | -0.9%#499 H | -0.3%#474 H | -1.3%#353 M |
| Earnings beat | 11 | -0.2%#473 M | -0.6%#351 M | -2.9%#459 M | -0.7%#359 M |
| Earnings miss | 9 | +0.3%#82 M | -0.7%#265 M | -1.2%#211 M | -0.8%#184 M |
| 52-week high | 10 | -0.1%#275 M | +0.1%#234 M | +4.6%#5 M | +6.9%#26 L |
| 52-week low | 4 | -1.0%#177 L | -1.2%#263 L | -0.1%#253 L | -0.3%#207 L |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 6 | -0.3%#431 L | -0.4%#426 L | +3.9%#99 L | -2.0%#314 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 7 | +1.7%#150 L | +2.5%#32 L | +2.0%#178 L | -7.0%#412 L |
| RSI oversold | 9 | -0.2%#344 M | +1.9%#121 M | +2.2%#240 M | -1.8%#347 M |
| RSI overbought | 10 | -0.4%#433 M | +2.4%#26 M | +3.9%#8 M | +6.7%#63 L |
| Reddit spike | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is NVR's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Big drop (-2.1% or worse)
A daily fall among the stock's own worst 10% of the prior 2 years.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 67 | +0.56% (+0.1 to +0.7) | High | #16 of 500 | 60% | -0.01% |
-5%
+4%
|
|
| 1 week | 67 | +0.15% (-0.2 to +1.5) | High | #338 of 500 | 54% | +0.35% |
-9%
+9%
|
|
| 1 month | 66 ≈42 indep. | +0.37% (-1.7 to +2.1) | High | #402 of 500 | 52% | -1.03% |
-14%
+16%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 63 ≈15 indep. | -0.33% (-2.3 to +5.4) | Medium | #413 of 499 | 49% | -3.49% |
-26%
+28%
|
Range of outcomes: all of NVR's big drops in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Big drop by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 31 | +0.2%H vs +0.1% | +0.7%H vs +0.5% | +0.2%H vs +1.4% | -1.6%M vs +6.0% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 37 | +0.9%H vs -0.1% | -0.2%H vs -0.3% | +0.7%H vs 0.0% | +0.1%M vs +1.9% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 27 | +0.1%H vs 0.0% | +1.1%H vs +0.2% | +2.7%H vs +1.5% | +2.0%M vs +2.8% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 41 | +0.7%H vs 0.0% | -0.2%H vs -0.1% | -1.7%H vs -1.0% | -0.5%M vs +0.9% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 22 | +0.5%H vs 0.0% | 0.0%H vs +0.1% | +0.8%M vs +0.9% | -2.0%M vs +1.2% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 46 | +0.6%H vs +0.1% | +1.2%H vs +0.3% | -0.4%H vs -0.3% | +1.3%M vs +1.9% |
The same event split by where NVR stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest big drops
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Oct 2 @ $5,993.85 | -2.2% on the day (line -2.1%) | … | … | … | … |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Sep 8 @ $6,116.86 | -2.9% on the day (line -2.1%) | +1.2% | +2.3% | … | … |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Aug 12 @ $6,293.95 | -2.1% on the day (line -2.1%) | +1.3% | +2.0% | -2.1% | … |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Jul 31 @ $6,147.05 | -2.2% on the day (line -2.1%) | +0.9% | +4.0% | +2.7% | … |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Jul 17 @ $6,490.04 | -3.1% on the day (line -2.1%) | -0.7% | -1.2% | -2.9% | … |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Jul 1 @ $6,643.73 | -2.5% on the day (line -2.0%) | +1.6% | -2.6% | -7.5% | -7.4% |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Jun 17 @ $6,275.94 | -2.5% on the day (line -1.9%) | +3.4% | +8.6% | +2.7% | -0.5% |
| May 15, 2026 | May 15 @ $5,563.62 | -2.1% on the day (line -1.9%) | +2.8% | +8.5% | +15.7% | +13.2% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Apr 29 @ $6,207.50 | -3.6% on the day (line -1.9%) | +1.7% | -1.7% | -1.7% | +1.3% |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Apr 21 @ $6,933.50 | -2.3% on the day (line -1.8%) | -4.7% | -7.1% | -13.6% | -8.4% |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Apr 7 @ $6,492.24 | -3.3% on the day (line -1.9%) | +4.1% | +5.4% | -6.0% | -1.0% |
| Mar 5, 2026 | Mar 5 @ $7,074.84 | -2.4% on the day (line -1.8%) | -1.6% | -9.0% | -5.1% | -12.7% |
| Feb 25, 2026 | Feb 25 @ $7,283.14 | -3.0% on the day (line -1.8%) | +2.1% | -0.4% | -10.3% | -16.3% |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Feb 13 @ $7,507.43 | -7.3% on the day (line -1.8%) | -1.2% | -0.7% | -12.1% | -25.9% |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Jan 27 @ $7,499.76 | -2.1% on the day (line -1.8%) | +1.7% | +3.6% | -0.9% | -14.1% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.