NVR

Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet

• NVR −2.16% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −2.9 pts of stock-specific move.
• Aftermath, big drop (Oct 2): After its 67 big drops in the past 5 years, NVR typically gained 0.6% over the next day (median) and was higher 60% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -0.8% and +1.3%. An ordinary day: +0.0%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big drops, that ranks #16 of 500.
• Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.