PGR
Analyst target raises behind the outperformance
- PGR +2.05% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +2.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Reported 3Q2026 Oct 14 before the open: EPS $4.60 vs $4.41 expected (beat, +$0.18, +4.2%); revenue $22.3B (-0.9% miss). The stock moved -4.2% on Wed's session (-3.1 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.1% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.9%): After its 60 big gains in the past 5 years, PGR was higher a week later 35 times out of 60; half the outcomes fell between -2.1% and +2.0%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (2 positive, 0 negative); latest: Barclays maintained Overweight, raised target $246 → $247.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PGR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
217.09 +1.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
221.66 +3.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 217.84 · prior close 213.46 | |
| Bargain buy side |
209.89 -1.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
205.56 -3.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 208.74 | 2 in 10 days | 218.28 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 209.89 | 3 in 10 days | 217.09 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 210.96 | 4 in 10 days | 215.99 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 203.06 | 2 in 10 weeks | 224.40 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 205.56 | 3 in 10 weeks | 221.66 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 207.92 | 4 in 10 weeks | 219.15 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PGR's daily swings (about 1.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | -2.0% | -6.4% | — | — |
| Sep 4, 2026 | -2.2% | +0.9% | -3.1% | — |
| Aug 27, 2026 | -2.2% | +2.9% | -3.8% | — |
| Aug 12, 2026 | -2.3% | +4.8% | +4.9% | — |
| Jul 30, 2026 | -3.1% | +1.0% | +2.5% | — |
| Jul 14, 2026 | -3.4% | -9.1% | -8.5% | -2.7% |
| Jun 25, 2026 | -2.2% | +7.8% | +0.1% | -6.2% |
| Jun 8, 2026 | -1.8% | +1.6% | +14.7% | +7.4% |
Big drop and big gain: among PGR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 314.00 +44.1% |
| All-time closing high Mar 17, 2025 |
273.12 +25.4% |
| 52-week closing high Jul 13, 2026 |
234.37 +7.6% |
| Mean analyst target | 232.81 +6.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 221.66 +1.8% |
| Now | 217.84 |
| 50-day average | 214.71 -1.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
213.46 -2.0% |
| 200-day average | 208.36 -4.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 205.56 -5.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 198.00 -9.1% |
| 52-week closing low May 29, 2026 |
190.22 -12.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.