PGR
Analyst target raises behind the outperformance
- PGR +2.22% on the last session vs SPY −0.29%: +2.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Reported 3Q2026 Oct 14 before the open: EPS $4.60 vs $4.41 expected (beat, +$0.18, +4.2%); revenue $22.3B (-0.9% miss). The stock moved -4.2% on Wed's session (-3.1 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.2% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.9%): After its 60 big gains in the past 5 years, PGR was higher a week later 35 times out of 60; half the outcomes fell between -2.1% and +2.0%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (2 positive, 0 negative); latest: Barclays maintained Overweight, raised target $246 → $247.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Insiders
Officers, directors and 10% owners file SEC Form 4 within two business days. Unplanned: the insider chose to trade now, the trades worth attention; their dollars make the net above. 10b5-1 plan: scheduled in advance, kept for the record. Tax: shares withheld on vesting stock, not a market trade. Awards, option exercises and gifts are left out. Source: SEC EDGAR, collected daily for the stocks discussed on Reddit.
Congress
| Trade date | Member | Chamber | Side | Amount | Disclosed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 17, 2026 | Gilbert Cisneros | House | Sell | $1K–$15K | Sep 4 |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Gilbert Cisneros | House | Buy | $1K–$15K | Jul 2 |
| Apr 27, 2026 | David J. Taylor | House | Buy | $1K–$15K | May 7 |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Alan Armstrong | Senate | Sell | $15K–$50K | Jul 21 |
| Feb 10, 2026 | David J. Taylor | House | Buy | $1K–$15K | Feb 20 |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Gilbert Cisneros | House | Sell | $1K–$15K | Mar 9 |
| Dec 18, 2025 | Julie Johnson | House | Sell | $1K–$15K | Jan 15 |
| Nov 13, 2025 | Julie Johnson | House | Sell | $1K–$15K | Dec 11 |
| Nov 3, 2025 | David J. Taylor | House | Buy | $1K–$15K | Nov 18 |
| Nov 3, 2025 | David J. Taylor | House | Buy | $1K–$15K | Nov 18 |
| Oct 27, 2025 | Sheldon Whitehouse | Senate | Sell | $15K–$50K | Nov 3 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Byron Donalds | House | Buy | $1K–$15K | Nov 18 |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Byron Donalds | House | Buy | $1K–$15K | Nov 18 |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Byron Donalds | House | Buy | $1K–$15K | Nov 18 |
| Sep 23, 2025 | Valerie Hoyle | House | Sell | $1K–$15K | Oct 10 |
Members of Congress report trades within 45 days of the trade date, so these are never real-time. Amounts are disclosed as ranges; the net uses each range's midpoint (≈). Source: House and Senate periodic transaction reports via CongressInvests, refreshed daily.
Funds
| Investor | Shares | Value | Of its portfolio | Vs quarter before | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soros Fund Management (George Soros) | 9,472 | $2.1M | 0.03% | — | Q2 2026 |
| Date | Investor | Move | Source | Shares | ≈ Value | Now held | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Viking Global (Andreas Halvorsen) | Sold out | 13F, Q2 2026 | 1,616,559 | $320.5M | Aug 14 | |
| May 15, 2026 | Viking Global (Andreas Halvorsen) | Added | 13F, Q1 2026 | 285,021 | $56.5M | 0.9% | May 15 |
| May 15, 2026 | Third Point (Dan Loeb) | Sold out | 13F, Q1 2026 | 220,000 | $50.1M | May 15 | |
| Feb 17, 2026 | Viking Global (Andreas Halvorsen) | New stake | 13F, Q4 2025 | 1,331,538 | $303.2M | 0.8% | Feb 17 |
| Feb 17, 2026 | Third Point (Dan Loeb) | New stake | 13F, Q4 2025 | 220,000 | $50.1M | 0.7% | Feb 17 |
Well-known investors we follow (Buffett, Ackman, Icahn, Druckenmiller, Tepper, Soros and others). 13F: managers report their US stock holdings up to 45 days after each quarter; the change from the quarter before is dated by the filing, the trades happened some time in the quarter, and the value is at the quarter-end price (≈). New and closed positions, and adds or cuts of 20% or more, of positions at least 0.2% of the portfolio. ARK: Cathie Wood's ETFs publish their holdings every morning; the change beyond the fund's own inflows and outflows, dated by the session it traded. 5%+ stake: Schedule 13D (with intent to influence) or 13G (passive), filed within days. Source: SEC EDGAR, ark-funds.com, refreshed daily. Who holds it: each investor's latest 13F portfolio (positions at the quarter's end; one sold since would not show until the next filing), and ARK's ETFs as of their latest daily file. The funds we follow and their portfolios · All recent insider, congressional and fund moves