RIOT
Analyst cuts weighing on the stock
- RIOT −1.39% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: −1.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Against the group: its crypto-linked peers +1.1% (+1.0 pts vs SPY).
- Filing: 8-K: material agreement (item 1.01) (filing)
- Aftermath, rsi oversold (Oct 14): After its 12 oversold readings in the past 5 years, RIOT was higher a day later 4 times out of 12; half the outcomes fell between -5.5% and +0.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Morgan Stanley maintained Overweight, lowered target $43.00 → $35.50.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,254 | — | -0.3%593/1253 up | -0.6%599/1249 up | -1.7%587/1233 up | -2.3%576/1191 up |
| Big drop Oct 8 (-6.3% or worse) | 53 | — | -0.4%25/53 up | +1.1%28/52 up | +1.8%27/52 up | +4.9%29/50 up |
| Big gain (+7.4% or better) | 60 | — | +0.3%31/60 up | +0.9%31/60 up | +1.3%31/59 up | +13.2%33/55 up |
| Earnings beat | 6 | -5.9%0/6 up | +4.1%5/6 up | -1.6%2/6 up | -8.0%2/6 up | -3.5%2/6 up |
| Earnings miss | 13 | -6.9%5/13 up | +0.4%7/13 up | -2.1%6/13 up | -17.9%5/13 up | +24.4%9/12 up |
| 52-week high | 5 | — | +0.2%3/5 up | +5.1%3/5 up | +4.1%3/5 up | -15.5%0/5 up |
| 52-week low | 5 | — | +0.3%3/5 up | +6.5%4/5 up | +14.1%3/5 up | +60.1%5/5 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 12 | — | +4.0%9/12 up | +2.0%6/12 up | +5.8%8/12 up | +24.6%6/10 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 15 | — | -2.0%5/15 up | -1.6%7/15 up | +12.2%10/14 up | +20.2%7/12 up |
| RSI oversold Oct 14 | 13 | — | -3.1%4/12 up | +2.9%6/12 up | -1.4%6/12 up | +24.3%7/12 up |
| RSI overbought | 19 | — | -1.2%6/19 up | +1.2%10/19 up | -0.8%9/19 up | -10.5%6/19 up |
| Volume spike | 6 | — | +1.1%4/6 up | -7.9%2/6 up | -5.6%3/6 up | -7.5%1/5 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | 67 | — | -0.5%31/67 up | +3.4%39/67 up | +1.9%36/66 up | +3.5%34/62 up |
| Theme rally hindsight | 56 | — | +0.6%30/56 up | +0.1%28/56 up | +5.3%32/55 up | +9.8%31/51 up |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | 4 | — | -4.0%0/4 up | -4.9%1/4 up | -24.7%1/4 up | -34.8%0/3 up |
| Analyst upgrade | 2 | — | -3.8%0/2 up | +9.0%2/2 up | +9.0%2/2 up | -33.2%0/2 up |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 1 | — | +5.0%1/1 up | +4.9%1/1 up | +33.0%1/1 up | -8.3%0/1 up |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is RIOT's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Any day
Every session: the plain holding return, the baseline for the events below.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 1253 | -0.25% | 593 of 1253 | -0.24% |
-19%
+26%
|
|
| 1 week | 1249 ≈250 indep. | -0.61% | 599 of 1249 | -1.14% |
-41%
+67%
|
|
| 1 month | 1233 ≈59 indep. | -1.67% | 587 of 1233 | -1.88% |
-57%
+134%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 1191 ≈19 indep. | -2.33% | 576 of 1191 | -5.21% |
-81%
+192%
|
Range of outcomes: all of RIOT's days in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Any day by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 593 | -0.2%593 events vs -0.2% | -0.6%593 events vs -0.6% | -3.1%580 events vs -3.1% | -5.2%541 events vs -5.2% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 462 | -0.3%461 events vs -0.3% | +0.3%457 events vs +0.3% | +4.1%454 events vs +4.1% | +25.6%451 events vs +25.6% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 574 | -0.1%574 events vs -0.1% | +0.1%574 events vs +0.1% | -1.5%565 events vs -1.5% | -5.9%559 events vs -5.9% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 631 | -0.4%630 events vs -0.4% | -1.0%626 events vs -1.0% | -0.8%619 events vs -0.8% | +5.3%583 events vs +5.3% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 594 | -0.2%594 events vs -0.2% | -0.5%594 events vs -0.5% | -1.7%587 events vs -1.7% | -5.7%568 events vs -5.7% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 641 | -0.4%640 events vs -0.4% | -1.0%636 events vs -1.0% | -2.2%627 events vs -2.2% | +2.9%604 events vs +2.9% |
The same event split by where RIOT stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.