SOXL
Reddit attention is surging
- SOXL −1.94% on the last session vs SPY +0.60%: −2.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, mention spike (trendy) (51 mentions vs 14.9/day the week before): After its 17 mention spikes in the past 5 years, SOXL typically gained 1.1% over the next week (median) and was higher 53% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -9.8% and +7.7%. An ordinary week: +1.4%. Among S&P 500 stocks after mention spikes, that ranks #39 of 92.
- 53 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 78% positive over the week · today's pace is 3.4× its recent daily average.
- Market backdrop (Wed): Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15-16, 2026; S&P futures +0.03%, 10-year yield -1bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | — | +0.5%#94 H | +1.4%#94 H | +2.0%#210 H | +6.6%#190 M |
| Big drop Oct 8 (-9.1% or worse) | 62 | — | +0.7%#196 H | +1.5%#221 H | -0.2%#257 H | +15.0%#215 M |
| Big gain (+8.6% or better) | 63 | — | 0.0%#253 H | +1.6%#200 H | +7.1%#188 H | +12.3%#202 M |
| Earnings beat | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high | 13 | — | -1.2%#265 M | -2.4%#272 M | +4.5%#155 M | +2.2%#215 M |
| 52-week low | 4 | — | +0.6%#108 L | -6.9%#142 L | -9.4%#162 L | +17.4%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 10 | — | -0.2%#245 M | +4.8%#170 M | +4.9%#226 M | +68.0%#139 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 8 | — | +3.9%#235 M | +8.3%#190 M | +18.8%#149 M | +51.2%#196 L |
| RSI oversold | 3 | — | +2.7%#236 L | +1.6%#238 L | +12.8%#101 L | +2.7%#239 L |
| RSI overbought | 18 | — | +0.6%#207 M | +0.3%#226 M | +7.5%#43 M | -1.1%#234 M |
| Volume spike | 1 | — | +4.8%– | +17.2%– | +44.8%– | +203.0%– |
| Theme selloff | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Theme rally | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mention spike (Trendy) latest session | 18 | — | -0.1%#51 M | +1.1%#39 M | +1.7%#45 M | -15.8%#46 M |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is SOXL's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session or today, from the live quote.
Crossed below 200-day avg
The close moves below its 200-day moving average.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 8 | +3.92% (+1.3 to +17.9) | Medium | #235 of 497 | 88% | +3.80% |
-1%
+25%
|
|
| 1 week | 8 | +8.28% (+4.6 to +18.8) | Medium | #190 of 497 | 88% | +7.60% |
-23%
+44%
|
|
| 1 month | 8 | +18.77% (-1.7 to +33.8) | Medium | #149 of 497 | 75% | +18.84% |
-4%
+190%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 6 | +51.17% (+25.3 to +64.2) | Low | #196 of 493 | 83% | +42.60% |
-5%
+557%
|
Range of outcomes: all of SOXL's crosses below the 200-day average in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Crossed below 200-day avg by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 2 | +2.1%– vs +0.4% | +6.2%– vs +1.5% | +8.6%– vs +4.1% | +33.2%– vs +19.3% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 6 | +10.2%L vs +0.5% | +13.8%L vs +0.8% | +27.6%L vs -1.1% | +75.7%L vs -4.2% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 1 | +5.4%– vs +0.3% | +7.9%– vs +1.1% | +1.1%– vs +3.7% | +41.0%– vs +11.3% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 7 | +2.4%L vs +0.8% | +8.7%L vs +1.2% | +21.4%L vs -1.3% | +61.3%L vs +2.7% |
The same event split by where SOXL stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest crosses below the 200-day average
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 2026 | Sep 1 @ $105.84 | -6.1% on the day | +0.4% | +18.8% | +45.2% | … |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Jul 29 @ $91.93 | -16.0% on the day | +24.7% | +43.6% | +33.8% | … |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Mar 30 @ $40.59 | -12.8% on the day | +17.9% | +39.2% | +190.4% | +556.6% |
| Jul 1, 2025 | Jul 1 @ $24.69 | -1.6% on the day | +5.4% | +7.9% | +1.1% | +41.0% |
| Jul 30, 2024 | Jul 30 @ $36.80 | -10.9% on the day | +19.2% | -23.3% | -1.7% | -4.9% |
| Sep 21, 2023 | Sep 21 @ $17.11 | -5.7% on the day | +2.4% | +7.0% | -4.5% | +61.3% |
| Apr 25, 2023 | Apr 25 @ $12.93 | -9.8% on the day | +1.3% | +8.7% | +21.4% | +90.1% |
| Feb 21, 2023 | Feb 21 @ $13.70 | -9.6% on the day | -1.3% | +4.6% | +16.1% | +25.3% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.