SOXL
Reddit attention is surging
- SOXL −1.94% on the last session vs SPY +0.60%: −2.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, mention spike (trendy) (51 mentions vs 14.9/day the week before): After its 17 mention spikes in the past 5 years, SOXL typically gained 1.1% over the next week (median) and was higher 53% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -9.8% and +7.7%. An ordinary week: +1.4%. Among S&P 500 stocks after mention spikes, that ranks #39 of 92.
- 53 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 78% positive over the week · today's pace is 3.4× its recent daily average.
- Market backdrop (Wed): Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15-16, 2026; S&P futures +0.03%, 10-year yield -1bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | — | +0.5%#94 H | +1.4%#94 H | +2.0%#210 H | +6.6%#190 M |
| Big drop Oct 8 (-9.1% or worse) | 62 | — | +0.7%#196 H | +1.5%#221 H | -0.2%#257 H | +15.0%#215 M |
| Big gain (+8.6% or better) | 63 | — | 0.0%#253 H | +1.6%#200 H | +7.1%#188 H | +12.3%#202 M |
| Earnings beat | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high | 13 | — | -1.2%#265 M | -2.4%#272 M | +4.5%#155 M | +2.2%#215 M |
| 52-week low | 4 | — | +0.6%#108 L | -6.9%#142 L | -9.4%#162 L | +17.4%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 10 | — | -0.2%#245 M | +4.8%#170 M | +4.9%#226 M | +68.0%#139 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 8 | — | +3.9%#235 M | +8.3%#190 M | +18.8%#149 M | +51.2%#196 L |
| RSI oversold | 3 | — | +2.7%#236 L | +1.6%#238 L | +12.8%#101 L | +2.7%#239 L |
| RSI overbought | 18 | — | +0.6%#207 M | +0.3%#226 M | +7.5%#43 M | -1.1%#234 M |
| Volume spike | 1 | — | +4.8%– | +17.2%– | +44.8%– | +203.0%– |
| Theme selloff | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Theme rally | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mention spike (Trendy) latest session | 18 | — | -0.1%#51 M | +1.1%#39 M | +1.7%#45 M | -15.8%#46 M |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is SOXL's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session or today, from the live quote.
RSI overbought
The 14-day RSI rises above 70.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 18 | +0.55% (-1.3 to +2.1) | Medium | #207 of 501 | 50% | +0.29% |
-10%
+8%
|
|
| 1 week | 18 | +0.29% (-2.1 to +2.2) | Medium | #226 of 501 | 50% | +0.39% |
-25%
+41%
|
|
| 1 month | 18 ≈15 indep. | +7.54% (+3.8 to +9.2) | Medium | #43 of 501 | 72% | +5.60% |
-54%
+114%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 18 ≈10 indep. | -1.07% (-24.0 to +31.1) | Medium | #234 of 501 | 50% | -4.89% |
-49%
+119%
|
Range of outcomes: all of SOXL's overbought readings in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
RSI overbought by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 16 | +0.6%M vs +0.5% | +0.3%M vs +1.6% | +6.8%M vs +6.3% | -1.1%M vs +28.6% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 1 | -1.1%– vs +0.7% | -2.1%– vs +2.1% | +25.1%– vs +0.6% | +31.1%– vs +6.4% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 17 | 0.0%M vs +0.4% | -0.1%M vs +1.5% | +9.1%M vs +4.1% | +0.6%M vs +19.3% |
| Below its 50-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 17 | 0.0%M vs +0.3% | -0.1%M vs +1.1% | +9.1%M vs +3.7% | +0.6%M vs +11.3% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | — | — | — | — | — |
The same event split by where SOXL stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest overbought readings
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26, 2026 | May 26 @ $225.64 | RSI 73.8, +18.5% on the day | -3.5% | +17.9% | +11.9% | -48.8% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Apr 29 @ $117.89 | RSI 70.7, +7.7% on the day | +7.6% | +40.6% | +90.2% | -2.8% |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Apr 13 @ $80.51 | RSI 71.5, +5.5% on the day | +5.9% | +19.1% | +114.2% | +119.3% |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Jan 16 @ $60.71 | RSI 71.1, +4.6% on the day | -4.6% | -0.1% | +9.1% | +57.9% |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Oct 8 @ $42.75 | RSI 74.5, +10.2% on the day | -1.3% | -6.5% | +0.5% | +16.1% |
| Sep 18, 2025 | Sep 18 @ $33.61 | RSI 75.2, +10.4% on the day | -1.8% | +0.7% | +19.8% | +7.1% |
| Jul 2, 2025 | Jul 2 @ $26.03 | RSI 73.9, +5.4% on the day | +1.5% | +5.1% | -7.6% | +41.5% |
| Jun 10, 2025 | Jun 10 @ $21.80 | RSI 71.9, +6.4% on the day | -1.1% | -2.1% | +25.1% | +31.1% |
| Jul 10, 2024 | Jul 10 @ $67.79 | RSI 71.8, +6.8% on the day | -9.6% | -24.8% | -54.1% | -45.3% |
| Jun 12, 2024 | Jun 12 @ $57.87 | RSI 70.4, +8.4% on the day | +3.6% | +2.2% | +9.5% | -45.7% |
| May 28, 2024 | May 28 @ $53.26 | RSI 71.5, +5.0% on the day | -5.7% | -11.9% | -0.2% | -28.6% |
| Mar 1, 2024 | Mar 1 @ $47.59 | RSI 72.5, +12.8% on the day | +3.0% | +1.3% | -5.0% | +0.6% |
| Jan 19, 2024 | Jan 19 @ $34.33 | RSI 70.3, +11.8% on the day | +1.1% | -2.4% | +4.5% | -11.6% |
| Dec 11, 2023 | Dec 11 @ $25.65 | RSI 70.6, +10.2% on the day | +2.1% | +16.0% | +9.2% | +76.9% |
| Nov 17, 2023 | Nov 17 @ $22.72 | RSI 70.0, +1.8% on the day | +4.5% | -0.7% | +32.9% | +56.6% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.