SOXL
Reddit attention is surging
- SOXL −1.94% on the last session vs SPY +0.60%: −2.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, mention spike (trendy) (51 mentions vs 14.9/day the week before): After its 17 mention spikes in the past 5 years, SOXL typically gained 1.1% over the next week (median) and was higher 53% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -9.8% and +7.7%. An ordinary week: +1.4%. Among S&P 500 stocks after mention spikes, that ranks #39 of 92.
- 53 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 78% positive over the week · today's pace is 3.4× its recent daily average.
- Market backdrop (Wed): Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15-16, 2026; S&P futures +0.03%, 10-year yield -1bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | — | +0.5%#94 H | +1.4%#94 H | +2.0%#210 H | +6.6%#190 M |
| Big drop Oct 8 (-9.1% or worse) | 62 | — | +0.7%#196 H | +1.5%#221 H | -0.2%#257 H | +15.0%#215 M |
| Big gain (+8.6% or better) | 63 | — | 0.0%#253 H | +1.6%#200 H | +7.1%#188 H | +12.3%#202 M |
| Earnings beat | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high | 13 | — | -1.2%#265 M | -2.4%#272 M | +4.5%#155 M | +2.2%#215 M |
| 52-week low | 4 | — | +0.6%#108 L | -6.9%#142 L | -9.4%#162 L | +17.4%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 10 | — | -0.2%#245 M | +4.8%#170 M | +4.9%#226 M | +68.0%#139 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 8 | — | +3.9%#235 M | +8.3%#190 M | +18.8%#149 M | +51.2%#196 L |
| RSI oversold | 3 | — | +2.7%#236 L | +1.6%#238 L | +12.8%#101 L | +2.7%#239 L |
| RSI overbought | 18 | — | +0.6%#207 M | +0.3%#226 M | +7.5%#43 M | -1.1%#234 M |
| Volume spike | 1 | — | +4.8%– | +17.2%– | +44.8%– | +203.0%– |
| Theme selloff | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Theme rally | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mention spike (Trendy) latest session | 18 | — | -0.1%#51 M | +1.1%#39 M | +1.7%#45 M | -15.8%#46 M |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is SOXL's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session or today, from the live quote.
Big drop (-9.1% or worse)
A daily fall among the stock's own worst 10% of the prior 2 years.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 62 | +0.74% (-0.9 to +1.3) | High | #196 of 500 | 53% | +0.81% |
-23%
+20%
|
|
| 1 week | 61 | +1.49% (0.0 to +6.5) | High | #221 of 500 | 59% | +3.41% |
-26%
+40%
|
|
| 1 month | 60 ≈39 indep. | -0.16% (-5.6 to +4.3) | High | #257 of 500 | 50% | -2.11% |
-50%
+152%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 56 ≈15 indep. | +15.00% (-7.7 to +50.2) | Medium | #215 of 499 | 57% | +8.36% |
-63%
+340%
|
Range of outcomes: all of SOXL's big drops in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Big drop by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 37 | +1.3%H vs +0.5% | +1.4%H vs +1.6% | -0.2%H vs +6.3% | +20.8%M vs +28.6% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 25 | 0.0%H vs +0.7% | +4.6%H vs +2.1% | -0.2%M vs +0.6% | -2.1%M vs +6.4% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 28 | +2.8%H vs +0.4% | +1.4%H vs +1.5% | -4.2%M vs +4.1% | +24.4%M vs +19.3% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 34 | +0.3%H vs +0.5% | +4.7%H vs +0.8% | +0.3%H vs -1.1% | +2.1%M vs -4.2% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 21 | +3.0%H vs +0.3% | 0.0%H vs +1.1% | -3.3%M vs +3.7% | -0.8%M vs +11.3% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 41 | +0.7%H vs +0.8% | +5.3%H vs +1.2% | -0.2%H vs -1.3% | +22.6%M vs +2.7% |
The same event split by where SOXL stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest big drops
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Oct 8 @ $142.52 | -10.3% on the day (line -9.0%) | -1.9% | … | … | … |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 14 @ $101.06 | -17.0% on the day (line -8.7%) | +1.2% | +40.3% | … | … |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Aug 28 @ $111.27 | -9.5% on the day (line -9.0%) | +1.3% | +5.3% | +32.1% | … |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Aug 18 @ $129.02 | -14.8% on the day (line -9.0%) | -6.5% | -10.4% | -11.1% | … |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Jul 24 @ $136.72 | -13.1% on the day (line -9.1%) | -6.3% | -16.1% | -18.7% | … |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Jul 16 @ $142.39 | -13.9% on the day (line -9.3%) | -4.9% | +10.5% | +1.7% | … |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Jul 7 @ $165.17 | -15.1% on the day (line -9.1%) | +5.8% | +6.9% | -20.1% | -0.5% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Jun 26 @ $215.46 | -14.7% on the day (line -8.6%) | +9.7% | -9.7% | -49.2% | -29.7% |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Jun 16 @ $226.04 | -17.0% on the day (line -8.3%) | +3.4% | +1.5% | -40.1% | -54.0% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Jun 5 @ $182.42 | -30.5% on the day (line -8.1%) | +15.8% | +28.6% | -4.2% | -35.8% |
| May 15, 2026 | May 15 @ $164.07 | -11.8% on the day (line -7.9%) | -7.6% | +16.1% | +37.8% | -7.7% |
| May 7, 2026 | May 7 @ $152.00 | -8.3% on the day (line -7.6%) | +16.3% | +22.4% | +39.0% | -7.8% |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Apr 28 @ $109.49 | -11.2% on the day (line -7.6%) | +7.7% | +31.6% | +105.0% | -16.0% |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Mar 26 @ $48.94 | -14.2% on the day (line -7.9%) | -4.8% | +7.7% | +152.0% | +340.3% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Mar 6 @ $47.86 | -12.6% on the day (line -7.7%) | +11.3% | +5.9% | +18.1% | +281.2% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.