SW
Moving with its group (XLY +1.4%)
- SW +1.04% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: +1.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- The consumer discretionary ETF (XLY) +1.4% (+1.4 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SW only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
41.47 +1.8% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
42.38 +4.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 41.17 · prior close 40.75 | |
| Bargain buy side |
40.04 -1.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
39.18 -3.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 39.81 | 2 in 10 days | 41.71 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 40.04 | 3 in 10 days | 41.47 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 40.25 | 4 in 10 days | 41.25 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 38.68 | 2 in 10 weeks | 42.93 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 39.18 | 3 in 10 weeks | 42.38 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 39.65 | 4 in 10 weeks | 41.88 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SW's daily swings (about 1.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among SW's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 69.00 +67.6% |
| Mean analyst target | 56.72 +37.8% |
| All-time closing high Nov 22, 2024 |
53.54 +30.0% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 18, 2026 |
50.79 +23.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 46.00 +11.7% |
| 50-day average | 45.40 +10.3% |
| 200-day average | 42.82 +4.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 42.38 +2.9% |
| Now | 41.17 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
40.75 -1.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 39.18 -4.8% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
31.85 -22.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 18 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.