TSLA
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- TSLA +4.65% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +3.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 2): After its 60 big gains in the past 5 years, TSLA typically lost 1.8% over the next week (median) and was higher only 37% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -4.0% and +2.9%. An ordinary week: -0.3%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big gains, that ranks #471 of 500.
- 4 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 74% positive over the week.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: JP Morgan maintained Neutral, lowered target $445 → $415.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days, including 1 insider sale not under a 10b5-1 plan.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#180 H | -0.3%#424 H | -0.9%#382 H | -1.0%#394 M |
| Big drop Sep 28 (-3.8% or worse) | 61 | +1.1%#125 H | +1.1%#217 H | +2.4%#200 H | +1.0%#341 M |
| Big gain latest session (+4.1% or better) | 61 | -0.1%#324 H | -1.8%#471 H | -2.0%#332 H | +4.4%#223 M |
| Earnings beat | 10 | +1.9%#77 M | +2.8%#199 M | +7.1%#201 M | -8.0%#437 M |
| Earnings miss | 8 | +0.7%#101 M | +0.7%#133 M | +6.8%#72 M | -3.1%#202 L |
| 52-week high | 3 | -2.5%#417 L | -0.9%#250 L | +6.2%#206 L | -22.4%– |
| 52-week low | 5 | +1.2%#100 L | +7.7%#16 L | +15.2%#63 L | +36.7%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 15 | +0.4%#189 M | -1.8%#303 M | +2.3%#214 M | +9.2%#162 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 13 | +0.9%#137 M | -0.7%#292 M | +3.9%#99 M | +3.9%#227 M |
| RSI oversold | 13 | 0.0%#272 M | -2.2%#326 M | -0.6%#282 M | +16.1%#90 M |
| RSI overbought | 13 | +1.0%#155 M | +4.8%#103 M | +1.5%#228 M | -7.6%#328 M |
| Reddit spike | 109 | 0.0%#77 H | -1.0%#89 H | -1.7%#79 H | -0.3%#73 M |
| Analyst upgrade | 4 | -1.4%#14 L | +1.3%#9 L | +0.7%#13 L | -2.4%#6 L |
| Analyst downgrade | 1 | +1.4%– | +10.0%– | 0.0%– | -11.3%– |
| Insider buy | 1 | +1.0%– | +1.0%– | +3.2%– | +12.7%– |
| Insider unplanned sale | 6 | +1.3%#6 L | +3.7%#4 L | -0.6%#20 L | -4.7%#23 L |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is TSLA's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Reddit spike
Daily Reddit mentions at least 3x the prior week's average (20 or more); entry the next session.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 109 | -0.02% (-0.3 to +0.2) | High | #77 of 92 | 49% | -0.04% |
-9%
+11%
|
|
| 1 week | 109 | -0.98% (-2.0 to -0.2) | High | #89 of 92 | 43% | -1.57% |
-19%
+27%
|
|
| 1 month | 107 ≈53 indep. | -1.68% (-5.3 to +1.6) | High | #79 of 91 | 47% | -2.68% |
-42%
+68%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 104 ≈17 indep. | -0.35% (-3.7 to +8.4) | Medium | #73 of 87 | 49% | -3.93% |
-54%
+82%
|
Range of outcomes: all of TSLA's Reddit spikes in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Reddit spike by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 49 | +0.6%H vs -0.1% | -0.9%H vs -1.0% | -3.7%H vs -3.2% | -3.1%M vs -3.9% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 53 | -0.6%H vs +0.2% | -0.4%H vs +1.2% | +2.8%H vs +2.6% | +10.6%M vs +12.2% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 53 | +0.2%H vs 0.0% | -2.0%H vs -0.6% | -2.5%H vs -2.6% | -5.6%M vs -5.2% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 56 | -0.4%H vs +0.1% | 0.0%H vs 0.0% | +1.7%H vs +2.1% | +5.3%M vs +3.5% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 56 | -0.1%H vs +0.1% | -0.4%H vs -0.1% | +1.9%H vs -0.2% | -2.1%M vs -4.3% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 53 | 0.0%H vs 0.0% | -1.8%H vs -0.6% | -5.3%H vs -2.5% | +1.6%M vs +1.6% |
The same event split by where TSLA stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest Reddit spikes
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 23 @ $380.12 | 36 mentions vs 7.0/day the week before | -0.6% | -6.7% | … | … |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Sep 8 @ $368.16 | 33 mentions vs 7.9/day the week before | -0.1% | -3.1% | … | … |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Aug 25 @ $350.25 | 22 mentions vs 6.7/day the week before | -1.3% | +1.7% | +7.9% | … |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Aug 17 @ $339.30 | 78 mentions vs 18.9/day the week before | -0.7% | +2.8% | +5.5% | … |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Jul 21 @ $378.93 | 79 mentions vs 9.1/day the week before | -1.3% | -18.9% | -7.3% | … |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Jul 2 @ $393.45 | 63 mentions vs 7.6/day the week before | +6.7% | +3.6% | -18.1% | -10.0% |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Jun 23 @ $381.61 | 90 mentions vs 20.9/day the week before | -1.6% | +10.2% | -16.2% | -0.7% |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Jun 2 @ $423.74 | 56 mentions vs 8.0/day the week before | 0.0% | -6.4% | -7.1% | -16.0% |
| May 8, 2026 | May 11 @ $445.00 | 79 mentions vs 18.9/day the week before | -2.6% | -7.9% | -14.2% | -25.2% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Apr 30 @ $381.63 | 61 mentions vs 7.7/day the week before | +2.4% | +7.9% | +9.0% | -18.5% |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Apr 16 @ $388.90 | 192 mentions vs 33.1/day the week before | +3.0% | -3.9% | +8.6% | -2.1% |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Apr 7 @ $346.65 | 28 mentions vs 4.0/day the week before | -1.0% | +5.1% | +15.0% | +13.7% |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Mar 19 @ $380.30 | 47 mentions vs 13.1/day the week before | -3.2% | -2.2% | +3.2% | +5.3% |
| Mar 9, 2026 | Mar 10 @ $399.24 | 43 mentions vs 8.4/day the week before | +2.1% | 0.0% | -13.4% | -0.6% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Mar 2 @ $403.32 | 69 mentions vs 20.4/day the week before | -2.7% | -1.1% | -7.8% | +3.1% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.