UNP
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- UNP +2.15% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +1.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 2): After its 61 big gains in the past 5 years, UNP typically gained 0.2% over the next day (median) and was higher 52% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -0.7% and +0.9%. An ordinary day: +0.1%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big gains, that ranks #151 of 500.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#185 H | +0.1%#423 H | +0.3%#359 H | +1.5%#308 M |
| Big drop (-1.6% or worse) | 58 | +0.3%#110 H | +0.4%#287 H | +0.8%#363 H | +3.0%#340 M |
| Big gain latest session (+1.5% or better) | 62 | +0.2%#151 H | -0.1%#454 H | -0.1%#446 H | +3.3%#306 M |
| Earnings beat | 12 | +0.6%#78 M | +0.7%#190 M | +3.5%#13 M | +2.8%#236 M |
| Earnings miss | 7 | -1.5%#276 L | +0.5%#145 L | +3.1%#82 L | +7.7%#17 L |
| 52-week high | 9 | -0.3%#328 M | -0.2%#330 M | -2.0%#433 M | +0.3%#286 L |
| 52-week low | 2 | -1.1%– | +2.4%– | +2.6%– | +10.8%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 14 | +0.5%#71 M | +0.6%#146 M | -0.7%#483 M | +3.4%#285 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 12 | +0.6%#21 M | +0.1%#346 M | -1.6%#483 M | +3.7%#263 M |
| RSI oversold | 8 | -0.9%#468 M | +1.8%#11 M | +0.2%#418 L | +10.6%#10 L |
| RSI overbought | 13 | +0.3%#20 M | +0.8%#66 M | -1.0%#483 M | +0.6%#292 M |
| Reddit spike | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is UNP's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Crossed above 200-day avg
The close moves above its 200-day moving average.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 14 | +0.48% (-0.4 to +0.9) | Medium | #71 of 497 | 64% | -0.09% |
-2%
+3%
|
|
| 1 week | 14 | +0.56% (-0.7 to +1.1) | Medium | #146 of 497 | 64% | -0.71% |
-5%
+5%
|
|
| 1 month | 14 | -0.68% (-1.6 to +0.5) | Medium | #483 of 497 | 43% | -0.29% |
-6%
+16%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 14 ≈12 indep. | +3.37% (-4.8 to +7.0) | Medium | #285 of 494 | 64% | +1.14% |
-15%
+17%
|
Range of outcomes: all of UNP's crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Crossed above 200-day avg by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 8 | +0.5%M vs +0.1% | +1.7%M vs -0.1% | -0.3%M vs -0.9% | +2.1%M vs -0.8% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 6 | +0.5%L vs +0.1% | -1.1%L vs +0.2% | -0.9%L vs +1.9% | +7.2%L vs +4.3% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 9 | +0.3%M vs 0.0% | +1.1%M vs 0.0% | -1.2%M vs +0.1% | +3.2%M vs +0.2% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 5 | +0.9%L vs +0.1% | -0.7%L vs +0.1% | -0.1%L vs +0.4% | +9.3%L vs +2.7% |
The same event split by where UNP stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest crosses above the 200-day average
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | Jan 21 @ $225.97 | +3.5% on the day | +0.9% | -0.7% | +16.0% | +9.3% |
| Nov 21, 2025 | Nov 21 @ $221.55 | +2.3% on the day | -0.8% | +2.3% | +4.1% | +17.5% |
| Sep 23, 2025 | Sep 23 @ $223.27 | +0.9% on the day | +1.0% | +3.7% | -1.2% | +3.5% |
| Jul 1, 2025 | Jul 1 @ $229.28 | +2.4% on the day | +0.7% | +0.4% | -5.8% | +1.0% |
| Mar 14, 2025 | Mar 14 @ $229.79 | +1.4% on the day | +0.1% | -1.5% | -6.4% | -5.4% |
| Jan 21, 2025 | Jan 21 @ $227.76 | +1.1% on the day | -0.4% | +5.3% | +4.6% | -7.9% |
| Nov 13, 2024 | Nov 13 @ $229.98 | +0.6% on the day | -2.0% | -2.8% | -1.7% | +5.1% |
| Oct 11, 2024 | Oct 11 @ $231.80 | +1.5% on the day | +1.2% | +0.7% | -0.1% | -4.8% |
| Jul 15, 2024 | Jul 15 @ $224.56 | +2.5% on the day | +3.0% | +3.1% | +0.5% | +3.2% |
| May 31, 2024 | May 31 @ $221.54 | +2.1% on the day | -1.9% | -2.1% | -3.1% | +10.6% |
| Oct 10, 2023 | Oct 10 @ $193.15 | +1.0% on the day | +1.5% | +2.4% | +2.7% | +16.5% |
| Jun 14, 2023 | Jun 14 @ $188.67 | +1.9% on the day | +1.6% | +0.3% | +3.5% | +7.0% |
| Feb 2, 2023 | Feb 2 @ $195.94 | +2.6% on the day | -1.5% | -5.0% | -1.5% | -7.0% |
| Aug 11, 2022 | Aug 11 @ $217.10 | +1.5% on the day | +0.3% | +1.1% | -1.6% | -14.5% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.