UNP
Moving with the market
- UNP +0.54% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +0.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Oct 22 before the open: EPS $3.47 expected (22 analysts); it moved ±4.0% on average after its last 8 reports.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 2 negative); latest: Citigroup maintained Buy, lowered target $349 → $338.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices UNP only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
289.54 +1.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
293.42 +2.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 287.98 · prior close 286.43 | |
| Bargain buy side |
283.36 -1.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
279.60 -2.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 282.37 | 2 in 10 days | 290.55 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 283.36 | 3 in 10 days | 289.54 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 284.28 | 4 in 10 days | 288.59 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 277.42 | 2 in 10 weeks | 295.73 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 279.60 | 3 in 10 weeks | 293.42 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 281.65 | 4 in 10 weeks | 291.29 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From UNP's daily swings (about 1.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among UNP's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 375.00 +30.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 328.17 +14.0% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 26, 2026 |
309.19 +7.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 293.42 +1.9% |
| Now | 287.98 |
| 50-day average | 287.39 -0.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
286.43 -0.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 279.60 -2.9% |
| 200-day average | 264.89 -8.0% |
| Lowest analyst target | 245.00 -14.9% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 29, 2025 |
211.90 -26.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.