UPST
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- UPST −0.61% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −1.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- 1 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 70% positive over the week.
- 2 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 1 insider sale not under a 10b5-1 plan and 1 insider open-market buy.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | -0.4%#444 H | -1.3%#489 H | -5.9%#475 H | -13.7%#487 M |
| Big drop (-5.6% or worse) | 50 | +1.8%#162 H | +0.7%#242 H | -0.4%#261 H | -2.6%#270 M |
| Big gain (+5.4% or better) | 48 | -0.4%#358 H | +3.4%#191 H | -4.2%#267 H | -9.4%#355 M |
| Earnings beat | 16 | -4.8%#408 M | -5.0%#361 M | -7.1%#356 M | -0.9%#256 M |
| Earnings miss | 4 | +9.4%#111 L | +20.0%#83 L | +1.9%#128 L | -0.4%#143 L |
| 52-week high | 4 | -1.4%#301 L | -6.8%#291 L | +2.4%#228 L | -33.7%#448 L |
| 52-week low | 6 | +1.3%#90 L | -2.2%#156 L | -8.6%#135 L | +8.2%#105 L |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 8 | -1.2%#256 M | +1.2%#241 M | +15.6%#192 M | +16.6%#162 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 8 | -0.5%#281 M | -0.2%#259 M | -4.0%#280 M | +21.6%#172 L |
| RSI oversold | 13 | -0.7%#309 M | +2.7%#193 M | -3.9%#277 M | -3.0%#326 M |
| RSI overbought | 18 | -0.6%#263 M | -5.5%#349 M | -9.0%#330 M | -21.2%#310 M |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | 15 | -5.2%#64 M | +6.4%#31 M | -10.7%#62 M | -22.8%#62 M |
| Analyst upgrade | 2 | -4.3%– | -8.2%– | -0.2%– | +1.6%– |
| Analyst downgrade | 1 | -1.4%– | -12.0%– | -19.2%– | -12.6%– |
| Insider buy | 3 | -3.0%#5 L | -2.6%#5 L | +13.4%– | -7.2%– |
| Insider unplanned sale | 12 | +2.7%#1 L | +7.0%#2 L | +13.6%#7 L | +8.0%#11 L |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is UPST's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Mention spike (Trendy)
Daily mentions at least 3x the prior week's average (20 or more); entry the next session.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 15 | -5.15% (-6.2 to -1.6) | Medium | #64 of 92 | 27% | -2.26% |
-34%
+27%
|
|
| 1 week | 15 | +6.41% (-3.8 to +12.8) | Medium | #31 of 92 | 60% | +6.34% |
-36%
+39%
|
|
| 1 month | 15 ≈13 indep. | -10.70% (-29.5 to +5.3) | Medium | #62 of 91 | 40% | -13.27% |
-53%
+73%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 15 ≈10 indep. | -22.75% (-42.2 to -0.9) | Medium | #62 of 87 | 27% | -17.56% |
-72%
+69%
|
Range of outcomes: all of UPST's mention spikes in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Mention spike (Trendy) by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 3 | -5.2%L vs -0.4% | -10.8%L vs -0.2% | -42.1%L vs -6.1% | -43.4%– vs -22.3% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 7 | +2.5%L vs -0.1% | +18.4%L vs -1.1% | +0.1%L vs -1.4% | +6.2%L vs -0.8% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 5 | -11.6%L vs -0.4% | -10.8%L vs -0.5% | -38.6%L vs -3.2% | -42.2%L vs -15.4% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 10 | -1.4%M vs -0.2% | +15.5%M vs -1.3% | -2.9%M vs -6.0% | -13.6%L vs -10.8% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 5 | -5.2%L vs -0.5% | +6.4%L vs -1.1% | -29.5%L vs -6.5% | -34.6%L vs -18.0% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 10 | -3.4%M vs -0.2% | +8.8%M vs -1.4% | -5.3%M vs -5.4% | -13.6%L vs -9.6% |
The same event split by where UPST stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest mention spikes
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2025 | Feb 12 @ $88.77 | 70 mentions vs 1.3/day the week before | -5.2% | -10.8% | -45.3% | -42.2% |
| May 7, 2024 | May 8 @ $23.11 | 56 mentions vs 0.6/day the week before | +13.2% | +21.6% | +6.4% | +48.0% |
| Feb 13, 2024 | Feb 14 @ $26.46 | 77 mentions vs 2.1/day the week before | +2.5% | -7.5% | -10.7% | +6.2% |
| Nov 7, 2023 | Nov 8 @ $21.38 | 20 mentions vs 1.0/day the week before | -1.2% | +21.6% | +72.7% | +58.6% |
| Aug 7, 2023 | Aug 8 @ $51.75 | 22 mentions vs 3.3/day the week before | -34.2% | -36.0% | -38.6% | -43.4% |
| Jul 19, 2023 | Jul 20 @ $55.39 | 26 mentions vs 4.1/day the week before | -2.2% | +6.4% | -42.1% | -51.6% |
| May 9, 2023 | May 10 @ $18.97 | 91 mentions vs 0.6/day the week before | -11.6% | +12.8% | +69.2% | +69.0% |
| Feb 14, 2023 | Feb 15 @ $21.59 | 124 mentions vs 2.4/day the week before | -12.3% | -14.2% | -29.5% | -0.9% |
| Nov 8, 2022 | Nov 9 @ $17.06 | 137 mentions vs 1.3/day the week before | +27.2% | +18.4% | +0.1% | -4.4% |
| Aug 8, 2022 | Aug 9 @ $28.45 | 151 mentions vs 4.3/day the week before | +17.8% | +27.5% | -5.9% | -34.6% |
| Jul 8, 2022 | Jul 11 @ $27.03 | 37 mentions vs 5.7/day the week before | -1.6% | -3.4% | +5.3% | -22.8% |
| May 27, 2022 | May 31 @ $50.40 | 20 mentions vs 5.6/day the week before | -8.8% | -9.6% | -37.3% | -50.3% |
| May 19, 2022 | May 20 @ $44.70 | 29 mentions vs 9.0/day the week before | -6.2% | +12.6% | -19.4% | -40.0% |
| May 9, 2022 | May 10 @ $33.61 | 87 mentions vs 3.9/day the week before | -16.7% | +38.8% | +18.0% | -0.3% |
| Apr 22, 2022 | Apr 25 @ $79.59 | 24 mentions vs 4.3/day the week before | -5.2% | +5.0% | -53.3% | -71.5% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.