VLO
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- VLO −3.90% on the last session vs SPY +0.05%: −3.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Oct 22 before the open: EPS $20.95 expected (17 analysts); it moved ±2.6% on average after its last 8 reports.
- Aftermath, big drop (-3.9% today so far, past its big-drop line of -2.3%): After its 54 big drops in the past 5 years, VLO was higher a month later 35 times out of 54; half the outcomes fell between -3.5% and +9.5%. History, not a forecast.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (2 positive, 1 negative); latest: Mizuho maintained Neutral, raised target $300 → $434.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices VLO only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
470.96 +2.4% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 28% |
485.15 +5.5% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 27% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 441.86 · prior close 459.78 | |
| Bargain buy side |
448.87 -2.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
435.74 -5.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 445.38 | 2 in 10 days | 474.65 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 448.87 | 3 in 10 days | 470.96 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 28% |
| Eager | 452.14 | 4 in 10 days | 467.55 | 4 in 10 days↓ 43% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 428.20 | 2 in 10 weeks | 493.69 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 435.74 | 3 in 10 weeks | 485.15 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 27% vs 30% |
| Eager | 442.88 | 4 in 10 weeks | 477.33 | 5 in 10 weeks↓ 45% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From VLO's daily swings (about 2.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 27% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | +4.7% | — | — | — |
| Sep 11, 2026 | +1.3% | +5.9% | +11.7% | — |
| Aug 10, 2026 | +5.6% | +10.2% | +23.5% | — |
| Jun 29, 2026 | +2.7% | 0.0% | +13.1% | +46.8% |
| May 18, 2026 | +3.1% | -6.2% | -6.8% | +36.6% |
| Mar 17, 2026 | +1.5% | +2.5% | +2.4% | +4.0% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | +2.2% | -2.3% | +13.1% | +19.7% |
| Jan 8, 2026 | +4.1% | -3.5% | +5.9% | +25.6% |
Big drop and big gain: among VLO's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 496.00 +12.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 485.15 +9.8% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 14, 2026 |
459.78 +4.1% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
459.78 +4.1% |
| Now | 441.86 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 435.74 -1.4% |
| Mean analyst target | 388.74 -12.0% |
| 50-day average | 378.75 -14.3% |
| 200-day average | 271.30 -38.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 238.00 -46.1% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 16, 2025 |
153.14 -65.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 45 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.