VLO
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- VLO −3.17% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: −3.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Oct 22 before the open: EPS $20.95 expected (17 analysts); it moved ±2.6% on average after its last 8 reports.
- Aftermath, big drop (-3.2% today so far, past its big-drop line of -2.3%): After its 54 big drops in the past 5 years, VLO was higher a month later 35 times out of 54; half the outcomes fell between -3.5% and +9.5%. History, not a forecast.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (2 positive, 1 negative); latest: Mizuho maintained Neutral, raised target $300 → $434.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Insiders
Officers, directors and 10% owners file SEC Form 4 within two business days. Unplanned: the insider chose to trade now, the trades worth attention; their dollars make the net above. 10b5-1 plan: scheduled in advance, kept for the record. Tax: shares withheld on vesting stock, not a market trade. Awards, option exercises and gifts are left out. Source: SEC EDGAR, collected daily for the stocks discussed on Reddit.
Congress
| Trade date | Member | Chamber | Side | Amount | Disclosed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2026 | Gilbert Cisneros | House | Sell | $1K–$15K | Feb 13 |
Members of Congress report trades within 45 days of the trade date, so these are never real-time. Amounts are disclosed as ranges; the net uses each range's midpoint (≈). Source: House and Senate periodic transaction reports via CongressInvests, refreshed daily.
Funds
| Investor | Shares | Value | Of its portfolio | Vs quarter before | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridgewater (Ray Dalio's firm) | 285,001 | $74.2M | 0.30% | +113% | Q2 2026 |
| Date | Investor | Move | Source | Shares | ≈ Value | Now held | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Bridgewater (Ray Dalio's firm) | Added | 13F, Q2 2026 | 151,003 | $39.3M | 0.3% | Aug 14 |
Well-known investors we follow (Buffett, Ackman, Icahn, Druckenmiller, Tepper, Soros and others). 13F: managers report their US stock holdings up to 45 days after each quarter; the change from the quarter before is dated by the filing, the trades happened some time in the quarter, and the value is at the quarter-end price (≈). New and closed positions, and adds or cuts of 20% or more, of positions at least 0.2% of the portfolio. ARK: Cathie Wood's ETFs publish their holdings every morning; the change beyond the fund's own inflows and outflows, dated by the session it traded. 5%+ stake: Schedule 13D (with intent to influence) or 13G (passive), filed within days. Source: SEC EDGAR, ark-funds.com, refreshed daily. Who holds it: each investor's latest 13F portfolio (positions at the quarter's end; one sold since would not show until the next filing), and ARK's ETFs as of their latest daily file. The funds we follow and their portfolios · All recent insider, congressional and fund moves