Aftermath
After crossing above the 200-day average, over the next month
The close moves above its 200-day moving average. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +1.36% over the next month after crossing above the 200-day average (half of them between -0.88% and +3.83%), against +0.86% on any day.
Latest crosses above the 200-day average, last few sessions
| Entry | Stock | Its median, 1 month | Confidence | Rank | Up | Events | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | CIEN Ciena | +3.2% on the day | +0.02% | Medium | #358 of 497 | 54% | 13 |
| Oct 2 | EL Estée Lauder Companies … | +2.0% on the day | -5.11% | Medium | #362 of 497 | 38% | 8 |
| Oct 2 | FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | +0.9% on the day | +8.66% | Low | #41 of 497 | 100% | 6 |
| Oct 2 | MNST Monster Beverage | +1.9% on the day | +3.52% | Medium | #113 of 497 | 62% | 8 |
| Oct 2 | ON ON Semiconductor | +6.0% on the day | -0.77% | Medium | #308 of 497 | 50% | 12 |
| Oct 2 | RL Ralph Lauren Corporation | +0.2% on the day | +9.51% | Medium | #16 of 497 | 88% | 8 |
| Oct 2 | WMB Williams Companies | +1.9% on the day | +5.94% | Low | #1 of 497 | 86% | 7 |
| Oct 1 | ACN Accenture | +15.8% on the day | -0.36% | Medium | #324 of 497 | 44% | 9 |
| Oct 1 | ALL Allstate | +1.1% on the day | +2.85% | Medium | #52 of 497 | 73% | 11 |
| Oct 1 | CB Chubb Limited | +1.9% on the day | -0.51% | Medium | #467 of 497 | 50% | 12 |
| Oct 1 | CDW CDW Corporation | +6.0% on the day | -1.97% | Medium | #458 of 497 | 33% | 12 |
| Oct 1 | CTSH Cognizant | +6.0% on the day | -3.15% | Medium | #384 of 497 | 40% | 10 |
| Oct 1 | NSC Norfolk Southern | +0.4% on the day | +3.37% | Medium | #110 of 497 | 64% | 11 |
| Oct 1 | PTC PTC Inc. | +4.4% on the day | +2.94% | Low | #166 of 497 | 71% | 7 |
| Oct 1 | SCHW Charles Schwab Corporation | +0.6% on the day | +1.05% | Medium | #266 of 497 | 50% | 10 |
| Oct 1 | SNPS Synopsys | +12.8% on the day | -6.48% | Medium | #448 of 497 | 31% | 13 |
| Oct 1 | WRB W. R. Berkley … | +2.0% on the day | -2.77% | Low | #412 of 497 | 29% | 7 |
| Sep 29 | GNRC Generac | +3.4% on the day | +11.80% | Medium | #140 of 497 | 56% | 9 |
| Sep 28 | FOX Fox Corporation (Class … | +0.0% on the day | +1.88% | Medium | #194 of 497 | 67% | 9 |
| Sep 28 | HAS Hasbro | +1.5% on the day | -0.72% | Low | #423 of 497 | 29% | 7 |
| Sep 28 | PGR Progressive Corporation | +1.9% on the day | -3.19% | Low | #462 of 497 | 33% | 6 |
| Sep 28 | RJF Raymond James Financial | +0.8% on the day | +5.53% | Medium | #25 of 497 | 67% | 12 |
| Sep 28 | ZBH Zimmer Biomet | +0.6% on the day | -2.00% | Medium | #475 of 497 | 25% | 12 |
Best after crossing above the 200-day average
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WMB Williams Companies | +5.94%+5.4 to +6.3 | Low | +5.41% | 86% | +2.85% | -5% · +10% | 7 |
| 2 | NRG NRG Energy | +7.21%+6.0 to +7.8 | Low | +4.71% | 86% | +6.02% | -12% · +10% | 7 |
| 3 | LYV Live Nation Entertainment | +5.25%+1.8 to +6.4 | Medium | +5.46% | 100% | +2.70% | +1% · +11% | 8 |
| 4 | DECK Deckers Brands | +4.05%+3.5 to +4.7 | Low | +3.54% | 80% | +3.54% | -1% · +6% | 5 |
| 5 | EW Edwards Lifesciences | +3.96%+2.8 to +5.3 | Medium | +4.06% | 90% | +3.52% | -9% · +12% | 10 |
| 6 | AFL Aflac | +4.39%+1.8 to +5.6 | Medium | +3.76% | 88% | +0.73% | -4% · +11% | 8 |
| 7 | ABNB Airbnb | +6.33%+2.9 to +7.2 | Medium | +4.07% | 73% | +2.61% | -13% · +16% | 11 |
| 8 | ATO Atmos Energy | +2.37%+1.8 to +3.0 | Medium | +2.00% | 82% | -1.68% | -4% · +7% | 11 |
| 9 | TRGP Targa Resources | +6.63%+5.9 to +8.8 | Medium | +4.81% | 75% | +4.98% | -8% · +10% | 8 |
| 10 | COF Capital One | +7.15%+4.1 to +7.3 | Low | +6.47% | 86% | +4.10% | -6% · +20% | 7 |
| 11 | TXT Textron | +2.65%+0.9 to +2.8 | Medium | +3.38% | 88% | -0.68% | -5% · +13% | 8 |
| 12 | COR Cencora | +4.76%+3.7 to +7.0 | Medium | +4.53% | 88% | +2.62% | -5% · +10% | 8 |
| 13 | ROP Roper Technologies | +3.59%+0.5 to +4.8 | Medium | +3.20% | 100% | +0.89% | 0% · +6% | 8 |
| 14 | EXPE Expedia Group | +5.34%+2.7 to +8.0 | Medium | +6.28% | 83% | +3.12% | -3% · +23% | 12 |
| 15 | CPAY Corpay | +4.68%+1.8 to +6.3 | Medium | +2.73% | 78% | +0.29% | -14% · +11% | 9 |
| 16 | RL Ralph Lauren Corporation | +9.51%+0.2 to +11.3 | Medium | +8.26% | 88% | +7.63% | -3% · +19% | 8 |
| 17 | RF Regions Financial Corporation | +6.30%+0.9 to +8.5 | Low | +6.08% | 86% | +2.77% | -2% · +16% | 7 |
| 18 | TJX TJX Companies | +7.86%+2.1 to +8.3 | Low | +5.76% | 83% | +7.42% | -1% · +9% | 6 |
| 19 | ADP Automatic Data Processing | +7.98%+4.4 to +11.3 | Low | +8.41% | 100% | +8.39% | 0% · +19% | 7 |
| 20 | USB U.S. Bancorp | +7.43%+5.4 to +7.9 | Low | +8.23% | 83% | +3.37% | -5% · +25% | 6 |
| 21 | FAST Fastenal | +2.90%+0.8 to +3.3 | Medium | +1.29% | 73% | +0.24% | -14% · +9% | 11 |
| 22 | TT Trane Technologies | +9.41%+4.0 to +12.3 | Medium | +6.90% | 78% | +5.75% | -7% · +21% | 9 |
| 23 | TXN Texas Instruments | +4.45%+0.9 to +5.2 | Medium | +4.93% | 71% | +1.18% | -8% · +25% | 17 |
| 24 | WFC Wells Fargo | +2.61%+2.1 to +3.3 | Medium | +3.61% | 83% | +0.13% | -6% · +15% | 12 |
| 25 | RJF Raymond James Financial | +5.53%-0.1 to +6.7 | Medium | +3.53% | 67% | +2.09% | -11% · +16% | 12 |
Worst after crossing above the 200-day average
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TLT meme | -2.12%-3.2 to -1.8 | Medium | -1.62% | 21% | -4.79% | -6% · +6% | 19 |
| 2 | RMD ResMed| | -1.74%-2.4 to -0.3 | Medium | -2.67% | 29% | -2.85% | -19% · +5% | 17 |
| 3 | CRL Charles River Laboratories | -7.71%-9.3 to -7.2 | Medium | -4.35% | 29% | -8.56% | -15% · +15% | 14 |
| 4 | MSCI MSCI | -2.53%-3.4 to -1.7 | Medium | -1.26% | 35% | -1.85% | -9% · +10% | 17 |
| 5 | AIG American International Group | -1.75%-3.9 to +0.2 | Medium | -1.14% | 38% | -2.49% | -8% · +8% | 16 |
| 6 | CCI Crown Castle | -1.73%-3.3 to -1.2 | Medium | -2.64% | 18% | -4.12% | -17% · +8% | 11 |
| 7 | HRL Hormel Foods | -2.26%-3.9 to -1.5 | Medium | -2.43% | 15% | -3.56% | -11% · +12% | 13 |
| 8 | CPT Camden Property Trust | -2.07%-2.6 to +0.3 | Medium | -0.79% | 38% | -3.24% | -7% · +8% | 13 |
| 9 | SHW Sherwin-Williams | -0.88%-2.2 to 0.0 | Medium | +0.31% | 35% | -1.53% | -12% · +15% | 17 |
| 10 | DHR Danaher Corporation | -2.39%-5.4 to -1.2 | Medium | -2.89% | 29% | -1.75% | -12% · +6% | 14 |
| 11 | GPC Genuine Parts Company | -3.05%-3.9 to +0.7 | Medium | -2.48% | 33% | -4.79% | -18% · +11% | 15 |
| 12 | HST Host Hotels & … | -1.50%-3.0 to +0.6 | Medium | -1.38% | 40% | -3.05% | -13% · +9% | 15 |
| 13 | WEC WEC Energy Group | -2.79%-5.0 to +0.5 | Medium | -0.93% | 42% | -2.80% | -7% · +10% | 12 |
| 14 | KMI Kinder Morgan | +0.28%-0.4 to +1.1 | Medium | +1.54% | 57% | -2.34% | -5% · +14% | 14 |
| 15 | VST Vistra Corp. | -3.61%-7.4 to -0.8 | Medium | -2.02% | 22% | -4.38% | -17% · +27% | 9 |
| 16 | UNP Union Pacific Corporation | -0.68%-1.6 to +0.5 | Medium | +0.72% | 43% | -0.29% | -6% · +16% | 14 |
| 17 | ERIE Erie Indemnity | -1.68%-3.8 to -1.2 | Low | -0.66% | 33% | -2.46% | -6% · +8% | 6 |
| 18 | CI Cigna | -1.82%-4.0 to -0.8 | Medium | -3.19% | 33% | -2.72% | -14% · +4% | 15 |
| 19 | BF-B Brown–Forman | -4.33%-8.7 to -2.9 | Medium | -5.27% | 20% | -7.51% | -17% · +3% | 10 |
| 20 | VICI Vici Properties | -1.53%-1.8 to +1.7 | Medium | +0.32% | 43% | -2.79% | -9% · +10% | 14 |
| 21 | NOC Northrop Grumman | -0.83%-1.5 to +1.6 | Medium | -0.14% | 44% | -1.08% | -8% · +8% | 9 |
| 22 | RSG Republic Services | -2.12%-2.9 to +0.7 | Medium | +0.08% | 44% | -1.23% | -7% · +12% | 9 |
| 23 | AON Aon plc | -2.17%-2.7 to -0.3 | Medium | -0.04% | 31% | -1.98% | -8% · +10% | 13 |
| 24 | ZBH Zimmer Biomet | -2.00%-6.2 to -1.3 | Medium | -2.26% | 25% | -0.78% | -13% · +11% | 12 |
| 25 | BG Bunge Global | -2.80%-6.9 to -1.8 | Medium | -2.12% | 31% | -5.30% | -11% · +15% | 16 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next month from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.