Aftermath
After an RSI overbought reading, over the next quarter
The 14-day RSI rises above 70. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +0.81% over the next quarter after an RSI overbought reading (half of them between -2.20% and +4.43%), against +2.15% on any day.
Latest overbought readings, last few sessions
| Entry | Stock | Its median, 1 quarter | Confidence | Rank | Up | Events | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | ADI Analog Devices | RSI 72.3, +3.1% on the day | +2.31% | Medium | #193 of 501 | 56% | 16 |
| Oct 2 | IBRX | RSI 70.2, +10.8% on the day | +2.61% | Medium | #224 of 501 | 55% | 11 |
| Oct 2 | ILMN Illumina, Inc. | RSI 70.4, +2.8% on the day | +2.49% | Low | #214 of 501 | 60% | 10 |
| Oct 2 | TSM | RSI 71.7, +3.0% on the day | +9.62% | Medium | #42 of 501 | 75% | 24 |
| Oct 2 | TXN Texas Instruments | RSI 70.4, +4.4% on the day | +2.20% | Medium | #212 of 501 | 58% | 12 |
| Oct 1 | ACN Accenture | RSI 70.0, +15.8% on the day | -2.46% | Medium | #297 of 501 | 42% | 12 |
| Oct 1 | AES AES Corporation | RSI 71.7, +0.1% on the day | -7.07% | Medium | #459 of 501 | 33% | 18 |
| Oct 1 | CDNS Cadence Design Systems | RSI 70.6, +6.2% on the day | -2.20% | Medium | #373 of 501 | 44% | 16 |
| Oct 1 | DDOG Datadog | RSI 70.3, +0.9% on the day | +1.67% | Medium | #218 of 501 | 56% | 16 |
| Oct 1 | KEYS Keysight Technologies | RSI 70.4, +2.7% on the day | +6.36% | Medium | #94 of 501 | 62% | 13 |
| Oct 1 | NTAP NetApp | RSI 70.1, +2.4% on the day | +11.47% | Medium | #84 of 501 | 64% | 14 |
| Oct 1 | SNPS Synopsys | RSI 74.4, +12.8% on the day | -13.71% | Medium | #449 of 501 | 38% | 16 |
| Sep 28 | DHR Danaher Corporation | RSI 71.3, +1.3% on the day | -9.37% | Low | #492 of 501 | 20% | 5 |
| Sep 28 | VTRS Viatris | RSI 73.5, +2.5% on the day | -1.25% | Medium | #264 of 501 | 50% | 16 |
Best after an RSI overbought reading
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RTX RTX Corporation | +7.67%+4.7 to +10.4 | Medium | +5.70% | 75% | +3.21% | -9% · +14% | 20 |
| 2 | WMB Williams Companies | +8.36%+7.2 to +9.7 | Medium | +7.55% | 76% | +5.45% | -9% · +22% | 21 |
| 3 | MCK McKesson Corporation | +6.63%+5.7 to +7.4 | Medium | +3.80% | 83% | +2.00% | -25% · +29% | 24 |
| 4 | FTNT Fortinet | +13.10%+11.4 to +15.3 | Medium | +12.49% | 83% | +10.68% | -23% · +48% | 12 |
| 5 | CASY Casey's | +8.66%+4.1 to +10.0 | Medium | +6.99% | 86% | +2.10% | -31% · +33% | 21 |
| 6 | HWM Howmet Aerospace | +11.32%+2.9 to +14.2 | Medium | +11.15% | 81% | +5.96% | -5% · +37% | 21 |
| 7 | CMI Cummins | +8.92%+4.1 to +10.7 | Medium | +7.15% | 78% | +5.90% | -17% · +25% | 23 |
| 8 | KMI Kinder Morgan | +9.18%+3.8 to +10.7 | Medium | +8.35% | 85% | +4.80% | -7% · +22% | 13 |
| 9 | ARES Ares Management | +8.67%+2.1 to +11.7 | Medium | +4.20% | 85% | +4.21% | -45% · +14% | 13 |
| 10 | BNY BNY Mellon | +8.41%+5.5 to +13.1 | Medium | +6.99% | 83% | +4.84% | -22% · +21% | 24 |
| 11 | WELL Welltower | +6.36%+2.9 to +8.5 | Medium | +5.69% | 72% | +1.68% | -15% · +19% | 18 |
| 12 | LLY Lilly (Eli) | +11.08%+6.8 to +15.2 | Medium | +10.19% | 77% | +10.19% | -19% · +33% | 22 |
| 13 | GD General Dynamics | +5.41%+1.2 to +7.1 | Medium | +4.97% | 85% | +0.71% | -7% · +16% | 13 |
| 14 | PGR Progressive Corporation | +8.52%+1.3 to +9.3 | Medium | +6.61% | 69% | +3.31% | -8% · +24% | 13 |
| 15 | SPY meme | +3.75%+3.2 to +4.6 | Medium | +3.16% | 80% | 0.00% | -7% · +13% | 20 |
| 16 | GL Globe Life | +3.63%+2.0 to +3.9 | Medium | +5.59% | 77% | +0.92% | -2% · +22% | 13 |
| 17 | TRGP Targa Resources | +12.53%+5.9 to +18.8 | Medium | +10.24% | 81% | +12.90% | -22% · +30% | 21 |
| 18 | VRT Vertiv | +17.80%+9.5 to +21.7 | Medium | +20.10% | 77% | +17.77% | -47% · +103% | 26 |
| 19 | VXUS meme | +3.38%+2.2 to +5.5 | Medium | +3.26% | 83% | -1.17% | -5% · +8% | 18 |
| 20 | CAH Cardinal Health | +5.63%+2.8 to +9.6 | Medium | +6.16% | 75% | +2.29% | -12% · +29% | 24 |
| 21 | NI NiSource | +5.83%+3.9 to +7.6 | Medium | +5.33% | 79% | +7.14% | -18% · +16% | 14 |
| 22 | BG Bunge Global | +6.40%+0.3 to +6.9 | Medium | +4.07% | 71% | +3.35% | -29% · +24% | 14 |
| 23 | COST Costco | +5.14%+1.1 to +7.9 | Medium | +4.17% | 74% | +2.57% | -20% · +24% | 19 |
| 24 | WMT Walmart | +6.54%+0.7 to +10.2 | Medium | +4.35% | 71% | +3.22% | -17% · +15% | 24 |
| 25 | GDDY GoDaddy | +14.46%+2.6 to +17.0 | Medium | +11.49% | 82% | +9.34% | -11% · +28% | 11 |
Worst after an RSI overbought reading
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TLT meme | -4.42%-5.3 to -3.6 | Low | -3.70% | 17% | -12.26% | -5% · +1% | 6 |
| 2 | RIVN meme | -25.17%-29.0 to -20.0 | Medium | -17.48% | 20% | -22.35% | -49% · +34% | 15 |
| 3 | EXPD Expeditors International | -5.74%-7.1 to -5.1 | Medium | -2.95% | 23% | -4.46% | -11% · +21% | 13 |
| 4 | BF-B Brown–Forman | -11.93%-13.8 to -10.8 | Low | -14.03% | 0% | -11.06% | -24% · -10% | 8 |
| 5 | CCI Crown Castle | -7.65%-9.8 to -3.7 | Low | -4.28% | 25% | -9.00% | -12% · +10% | 8 |
| 6 | SWK Stanley Black & … | -9.44%-12.4 to -8.3 | Medium | -11.16% | 8% | -9.06% | -32% · +7% | 12 |
| 7 | LOW Lowe's | -6.66%-9.3 to -3.9 | Medium | -5.29% | 14% | -8.44% | -23% · +17% | 14 |
| 8 | ES Eversource Energy | -5.91%-8.4 to -3.8 | Medium | -5.38% | 22% | -7.37% | -15% · +5% | 9 |
| 9 | LUV Southwest Airlines | -11.15%-12.8 to -9.2 | Medium | -7.23% | 21% | -14.47% | -32% · +24% | 14 |
| 10 | MGM MGM Resorts | -8.29%-10.8 to -3.2 | Medium | -7.22% | 14% | -12.82% | -22% · +10% | 14 |
| 11 | JKHY Jack Henry & … | -5.59%-6.3 to -1.7 | Medium | -4.13% | 23% | -4.91% | -16% · +17% | 13 |
| 12 | DHR Danaher Corporation | -9.37%-10.3 to -8.5 | Low | -8.49% | 20% | -3.59% | -17% · +2% | 5 |
| 13 | HD Home Depot (The) | -9.34%-12.0 to -5.6 | Medium | -6.36% | 20% | -11.09% | -20% · +18% | 15 |
| 14 | SHW Sherwin-Williams | -6.37%-7.7 to -3.8 | Medium | -2.97% | 25% | -8.85% | -24% · +18% | 12 |
| 15 | MSCI MSCI | -6.96%-8.8 to -2.5 | Medium | -5.67% | 31% | -4.65% | -22% · +11% | 16 |
| 16 | O Realty Income | -4.03%-5.9 to -2.7 | Medium | -4.21% | 21% | -9.40% | -21% · +12% | 14 |
| 17 | AZO AutoZone | -1.90%-4.1 to -1.0 | Medium | -0.58% | 35% | -6.64% | -9% · +15% | 17 |
| 18 | AWK American Water Works | -5.95%-11.0 to -5.8 | Low | -4.18% | 22% | -7.52% | -11% · +11% | 9 |
| 19 | PPG PPG Industries | -2.99%-7.4 to -2.3 | Low | -3.25% | 22% | -4.26% | -10% · +5% | 9 |
| 20 | VICI Vici Properties | -5.35%-7.1 to -0.2 | Low | -2.98% | 30% | -4.68% | -9% · +9% | 10 |
| 21 | CMS CMS Energy | -2.34%-3.1 to +0.8 | Medium | -2.22% | 44% | -2.10% | -19% · +10% | 16 |
| 22 | UNH UnitedHealth Group | -3.69%-7.1 to -0.8 | Medium | -3.57% | 31% | -11.08% | -43% · +31% | 16 |
| 23 | MAA Mid-America Apartment Communities | -5.14%-12.0 to -1.7 | Low | -6.01% | 12% | -6.08% | -17% · +2% | 8 |
| 24 | PFE Pfizer | -6.88%-7.1 to +1.0 | Low | -2.25% | 33% | -3.71% | -19% · +20% | 9 |
| 25 | MDLZ Mondelez International | -1.53%-3.4 to +0.9 | Medium | -1.37% | 43% | -6.58% | -13% · +4% | 14 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next quarter from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.