TSM
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- TSM +2.96% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +2.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, rsi overbought (Oct 2): After its 24 overbought readings in the past 5 years, TSM typically gained 2.3% over the next month (median) and was higher 62% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -2.8% and +9.9%. An ordinary month: +2.6%. Among S&P 500 stocks after overbought readings, that ranks #120 of 501.
- 1 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 91% positive over the week.
- 30 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 30 insider open-market buys.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | 0.0%#281 H | +0.6%#58 H | +2.6%#41 H | +10.1%#15 M |
| Big drop (-2.8% or worse) | 59 | -0.1%#368 H | +0.6%#221 H | +4.2%#53 H | +13.6%#23 M |
| Big gain (+3.3% or better) | 69 | 0.0%#363 H | +0.2%#290 H | +4.0%#41 H | +12.2%#56 M |
| Earnings beat | 20 | -1.6%#480 H | -0.1%#272 H | +4.7%#77 H | +9.5%#26 M |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high | 16 | +0.4%#99 M | +1.6%#91 M | +5.1%#14 M | +7.4%#11 M |
| 52-week low | 1 | -5.9%– | -3.8%– | -3.6%– | +21.2%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 5 | -0.2%#262 L | -3.8%#348 L | +7.2%#145 L | +12.0%#71 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 3 | -0.3%#404 L | +0.9%#178 L | -0.3%#280 L | +9.3%#6 L |
| RSI oversold | 9 | +0.3%#196 M | +1.2%#193 M | +3.7%#178 M | +13.1%#136 L |
| RSI overbought latest session | 25 | -0.2%#380 H | -0.4%#362 H | +2.3%#120 M | +9.6%#42 M |
| Reddit spike | 41 | -0.9%#93 H | +0.7%#24 H | +1.1%#50 H | +10.1%#4 M |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | 157 | +0.6%#5 M | -2.0%#4 M | +3.4%#2 L | +8.3%– |
| Insider unplanned sale | 2 | +1.2%– | +3.5%– | +12.5%– | +3.8%– |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is TSM's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
RSI overbought
The 14-day RSI rises above 70.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 24 | -0.24% (-0.9 to +0.3) | High | #380 of 501 | 42% | -0.41% |
-5%
+2%
|
|
| 1 week | 24 | -0.38% (-1.6 to +1.2) | High | #362 of 501 | 46% | -0.88% |
-4%
+10%
|
|
| 1 month | 24 ≈19 indep. | +2.33% (-0.5 to +5.1) | Medium | #120 of 501 | 62% | +1.01% |
-17%
+19%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 24 ≈13 indep. | +9.62% (+2.7 to +16.9) | Medium | #42 of 501 | 75% | +7.71% |
-23%
+33%
|
Range of outcomes: all of TSM's overbought readings in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
RSI overbought by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 22 | -0.2%H vs +0.2% | -0.3%H vs +0.9% | +4.8%M vs +4.3% | +12.1%M vs +12.1% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 1 | -1.3%– vs 0.0% | +2.6%– vs +0.1% | -3.0%– vs +2.2% | +13.5%– vs +17.8% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 24 | -0.2%H vs 0.0% | -0.3%H vs +0.7% | +3.1%M vs +3.5% | +12.1%M vs +11.1% |
| Below its 50-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 25 | -0.2%H vs +0.1% | -0.4%H vs +0.8% | +2.3%M vs +3.1% | +9.6%M vs +9.8% |
| Below its 20-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
The same event split by where TSM stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest overbought readings
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Oct 2 @ $472.78 | RSI 71.7, +3.0% on the day | … | … | … | … |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Feb 11 @ $371.17 | RSI 71.3, +3.4% on the day | -1.6% | -3.7% | -9.6% | +7.2% |
| Jan 6, 2026 | Jan 6 @ $324.88 | RSI 71.7, +1.6% on the day | -2.7% | +1.2% | +1.0% | +12.1% |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Oct 1 @ $285.45 | RSI 74.1, +3.3% on the day | -0.1% | +5.6% | +5.1% | +5.6% |
| Sep 10, 2025 | Sep 10 @ $256.90 | RSI 70.2, +3.8% on the day | -0.6% | +1.2% | +15.5% | +16.9% |
| Jul 17, 2025 | Jul 17 @ $242.26 | RSI 74.7, +3.4% on the day | -2.1% | -1.6% | -2.7% | +24.5% |
| Jun 24, 2025 | Jun 24 @ $217.10 | RSI 70.9, +4.7% on the day | +1.2% | +2.1% | +9.8% | +28.9% |
| Jun 6, 2025 | Jun 6 @ $201.66 | RSI 70.4, +0.9% on the day | +0.9% | +3.3% | +13.4% | +20.9% |
| May 13, 2025 | May 13 @ $190.66 | RSI 70.8, +3.8% on the day | +0.4% | -0.3% | +11.5% | +24.9% |
| Oct 17, 2024 | Oct 17 @ $200.88 | RSI 72.5, +9.8% on the day | -2.5% | -3.8% | -9.6% | +6.6% |
| Jul 8, 2024 | Jul 8 @ $181.46 | RSI 71.8, +1.4% on the day | -1.1% | -0.8% | -16.7% | -2.6% |
| Jun 12, 2024 | Jun 12 @ $167.66 | RSI 70.9, +4.4% on the day | +0.3% | +1.7% | +7.4% | -0.2% |
| May 24, 2024 | May 24 @ $155.08 | RSI 70.6, +1.9% on the day | -0.4% | -3.2% | +7.9% | +6.0% |
| Mar 4, 2024 | Mar 4 @ $133.47 | RSI 73.4, +3.3% on the day | -2.4% | +0.6% | +3.1% | +12.5% |
| Feb 5, 2024 | Feb 5 @ $114.67 | RSI 71.7, +2.6% on the day | +0.5% | +9.8% | +19.2% | +20.7% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.