AAOI
Down on hot inflation data
- AAOI −6.16% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: −6.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- News: tikr.com reports stock fell on hot inflation concerns during the session. (tikr.com)
- Aftermath, crossed below 200-day avg (Oct 8): After its 12 crosses below the 200-day average in the past 5 years, AAOI was higher a month later 8 times out of 12; half the outcomes fell between -10.4% and +24.0%. History, not a forecast.
- 14 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 74% positive over the week · today's pace is 1.8× its recent daily average.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: B. Riley Securities maintained Neutral, lowered target $109 → $92.00.
- 2 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.0× its 20-day average.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,254 | — | -0.2%597/1253 up | -0.3%607/1249 up | -1.8%598/1233 up | +6.2%632/1191 up |
| Big drop Oct 8 (-8.9% or worse) | 77 | — | +0.6%41/77 up | +1.8%43/76 up | +4.7%41/76 up | +19.2%44/73 up |
| Big gain (+10.4% or better) | 78 | — | -0.2%38/78 up | +0.1%39/78 up | +8.6%45/78 up | +20.6%47/76 up |
| Earnings beat | 11 | -5.6%3/11 up | +3.8%7/11 up | +12.0%9/11 up | +1.0%6/11 up | +1.9%5/10 up |
| Earnings miss | 5 | -3.3%1/5 up | +1.9%3/5 up | +3.6%4/5 up | +9.9%4/5 up | -9.8%2/5 up |
| 52-week high | 9 | — | +1.4%6/9 up | +0.2%5/9 up | +17.6%6/9 up | -7.9%4/9 up |
| 52-week low | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 11 | — | 0.0%5/11 up | -2.2%4/11 up | +12.8%8/11 up | -9.9%4/9 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg Oct 8 | 13 | — | -0.7%6/13 up | -1.6%6/12 up | +20.4%8/12 up | +4.1%5/10 up |
| RSI oversold | 11 | — | +0.6%7/11 up | +5.2%10/11 up | -2.1%5/11 up | +4.6%6/11 up |
| RSI overbought | 20 | — | -1.2%8/20 up | -1.3%10/20 up | +6.3%12/20 up | +18.9%12/20 up |
| Volume spike | 20 | — | +3.8%14/20 up | +10.7%14/20 up | +17.8%14/20 up | +36.4%11/20 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Theme rally hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | 1 | — | -2.3%0/1 up | +2.1%1/1 up | -21.7%0/1 up | — |
| Analyst upgrade | 1 | — | -7.0%0/1 up | +7.9%1/1 up | -17.5%0/1 up | +81.1%1/1 up |
| Analyst downgrade | 1 | — | +0.8%1/1 up | -12.0%0/1 up | +52.9%1/1 up | +85.2%1/1 up |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 19 | — | +7.0%12/19 up | +1.3%12/19 up | +3.6%10/19 up | -21.9%5/18 up |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is AAOI's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Analyst downgrade
A rating downgrade; entry at the next session's close.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 1 | +0.80% | 1 of 1 | +0.74% | one event: +0.8% | |
| 1 week | 1 | -12.04% | 0 of 1 | -8.69% | one event: -12.0% | |
| 1 month | 1 | +52.93% | 1 of 1 | +52.02% | one event: +52.9% | |
| 1 quarter | 1 | +85.22% | 1 of 1 | +85.18% | one event: +85.2% |
Range of outcomes: all of AAOI's analyst downgrades in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Analyst downgrade by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 1 | +0.8%1 events vs -0.3% | -12.0%1 events vs -0.8% | +52.9%1 events vs -0.6% | +85.2%1 events vs -0.4% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | — | — | — | — | — |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 1 | +0.8%1 events vs -0.3% | -12.0%1 events vs -1.3% | +52.9%1 events vs -6.3% | +85.2%1 events vs +13.4% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 1 | +0.8%1 events vs -0.1% | -12.0%1 events vs -0.7% | +52.9%1 events vs -5.3% | +85.2%1 events vs +6.3% |
The same event split by where AAOI stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Latest analyst downgrades
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2025 | Nov 11 @ $23.75 | B. Riley Securities: Neutral → Sell | +0.8% | -12.0% | +52.9% | +85.2% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.