ASML
ASML Holding N.V. - New York Re · Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
$1,650.00
-3.94% today · -8.59% 1W
Oct 14 close or latest
ReadoutWhy it's moving
Falling despite an earnings beat
- ASML −3.94% on the last session vs SPY −1.08%: −2.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Reported 3Q2026 today before the open: EPS $11.82 vs $10.76 expected (beat, +$1.06, +9.9%); revenue $11.7B (-0.5% in line). The stock moved -3.9% on Wed's session (-2.9 pts vs SPY).
- News: Chip equipment sector fell 4.20% as tech declined on inflation concerns and AI trade worries.
- Chip equipment basket -4.2% (-3.1 pts vs SPY; TER -5.5%, LRCX -4.7%, AMAT -3.8%, KLAC -2.8%): the stock moved with its peers. Overnight: Tokyo Electron (Tokyo) -2.7%.
- Aftermath, earnings beat (3Q2026 beat +10%; today is the reaction session): After its 19 earnings beats in the past 5 years, ASML was higher a day later 12 times out of 19; half the outcomes fell between -1.7% and +2.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 64 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 68% positive over the week · today's pace is 9.1× its recent daily average.
- Market backdrop (Today): CPI m/m 0.6% vs 0.6% expected (in line); CPI y/y 3.7% vs 3.6% expected (hotter); S&P futures -0.68%, 10-year yield +12bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume 2.0× its 20-day average.
Assembled from Wallsti's own signals and the session's headlines and filings read by AI (Claude); it can misread, so the sources are linked.
Latest session
Earnings beat
3Q2026 beat +10%; today is the reaction session
After its 19 earnings beats in the past 5 years, ASML was higher a day later 12 times out of 19; half the outcomes fell between -1.7% and +2.4%. History, not a forecast.
See the aftermath
Latest session
Mention spike (Trendy)
61 mentions vs 6.7/day the week before
After its 13 mention spikes in the past 5 years, ASML was higher a week later 9 times out of 13; half the outcomes fell between -2.4% and +6.3%. History, not a forecast.
Latest session
Big drop
-3.9% on the day (line -2.8%)
After its 56 big drops in the past 5 years, ASML was higher a month later 33 times out of 56; half the outcomes fell between -3.5% and +10.7%. History, not a forecast.
See the aftermath
Latest session
Theme selloff
Chip equipment peers -3.1 pts vs SPY; the stock -3.9%
See the aftermath
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,254 | — | +0.1%648/1253 up | +0.3%665/1249 up | +1.6%676/1233 up | +4.0%710/1191 up |
| Big drop latest session (-2.8% or worse) | 57 | — | +0.1%28/56 up | -0.4%27/56 up | +2.3%33/56 up | +10.8%38/53 up |
| Big gain (+3.2% or better) | 68 | — | -0.1%34/68 up | +0.2%36/68 up | +3.5%43/67 up | +6.8%37/63 up |
| Earnings beat latest session | 19 | -2.4%8/19 up | +0.8%12/19 up | -0.4%9/19 up | +1.5%12/19 up | +2.0%10/19 up |
| Earnings miss | 1 | -2.2%0/1 up | +2.3%1/1 up | -5.9%0/1 up | +2.1%1/1 up | -1.7%0/1 up |
| 52-week high | 14 | — | -0.5%5/14 up | +1.6%11/14 up | +0.9%8/14 up | +5.0%7/14 up |
| 52-week low | 2 | — | -0.9%1/2 up | +3.2%2/2 up | +10.8%2/2 up | +19.7%2/2 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 7 | — | -0.9%3/7 up | +3.8%5/7 up | +4.5%5/7 up | +19.5%5/7 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 5 | — | +1.4%4/5 up | +2.0%5/5 up | +4.5%4/5 up | +6.0%4/5 up |
| RSI oversold | 6 | — | +0.4%4/6 up | +4.6%5/6 up | +7.7%6/6 up | +25.0%4/6 up |
| RSI overbought | 14 | — | +0.1%7/14 up | +2.6%10/14 up | +2.1%8/14 up | +3.1%8/14 up |
| Volume spike | 9 | — | -0.8%3/9 up | -1.3%4/9 up | +1.5%7/9 up | +2.0%6/9 up |
| Theme selloff latest session hindsight | 71 | — | +0.2%36/70 up | -0.5%33/70 up | +1.6%39/69 up | +4.2%42/64 up |
| Theme rally hindsight | 75 | — | +0.2%41/75 up | +0.2%39/75 up | +2.8%47/74 up | +7.0%43/71 up |
| Mention spike (Trendy) latest session | 14 | — | +0.8%7/13 up | +3.7%9/13 up | +4.3%9/13 up | +2.1%7/12 up |
| Analyst upgrade | 3 | — | -1.1%1/3 up | +2.3%2/3 up | +8.3%2/3 up | +8.8%3/3 up |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is ASML's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session or today, from the live quote.
Mention spike (Trendy)
Daily mentions at least 3x the prior week's average (20 or more); entry the next session.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 13 | +0.82% | 7 of 13 | +0.55% |
-8%
+3%
|
|
| 1 week | 13 | +3.67% | 9 of 13 | +2.31% |
-6%
+21%
|
|
| 1 month | 13 | +4.26% | 9 of 13 | +1.53% |
-7%
+53%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 12 ≈10 indep. | +2.10% | 7 of 12 | -0.43% |
-21%
+67%
|
Range of outcomes: all of ASML's mention spikes in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Mention spike (Trendy) by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 9 | -1.1%8 events vs +0.2% | -0.8%8 events vs +0.5% | +3.2%8 events vs +2.9% | +0.9%7 events vs +8.0% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 5 | +1.7%5 events vs +0.2% | +6.3%5 events vs +0.2% | +6.2%5 events vs +1.9% | +10.9%5 events vs +8.8% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 6 | +1.7%6 events vs +0.1% | +2.5%6 events vs +0.3% | +3.2%6 events vs +1.4% | -2.7%6 events vs +5.0% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 8 | -0.8%7 events vs +0.2% | +3.7%7 events vs +0.3% | +4.3%7 events vs +2.5% | +13.5%6 events vs +4.2% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 3 | +1.1%3 events vs +0.1% | -2.4%3 events vs +0.2% | +2.1%3 events vs +1.3% | -1.7%3 events vs +2.8% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 11 | +0.2%10 events vs +0.2% | +3.9%10 events vs +0.7% | +4.3%10 events vs +2.1% | +3.3%9 events vs +6.9% |
The same event split by where ASML stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Latest mention spikes
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 14 @ $1,650.00 | 22 mentions vs 3.7/day the week before | … | … | … | … |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Jul 28 @ $1,582.95 | 24 mentions vs 2.7/day the week before | -2.0% | +8.1% | +10.3% | … |
| Jul 10, 2026 | Jul 13 @ $1,723.81 | 20 mentions vs 5.6/day the week before | +2.9% | +0.8% | +4.4% | +3.3% |
| Jun 19, 2026 | Jun 22 @ $1,926.76 | 53 mentions vs 3.6/day the week before | -7.8% | -2.4% | -6.6% | -11.2% |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Jan 28 @ $1,416.12 | 38 mentions vs 1.6/day the week before | +2.3% | -5.9% | +2.1% | -1.7% |
| Jan 2, 2026 | Jan 5 @ $1,222.32 | 36 mentions vs 2.3/day the week before | +1.1% | +4.3% | +9.0% | +6.5% |
| Jul 16, 2025 | Jul 17 @ $738.16 | 53 mentions vs 4.0/day the week before | -1.4% | -2.7% | -0.1% | +35.9% |
| Apr 15, 2025 | Apr 16 @ $627.24 | 47 mentions vs 3.4/day the week before | +0.8% | +6.3% | +18.2% | +16.1% |
| Jan 28, 2025 | Jan 29 @ $702.53 | 68 mentions vs 3.7/day the week before | +3.4% | +4.2% | -0.3% | -5.8% |
| Dec 27, 2024 | Dec 30 @ $686.26 | 33 mentions vs 5.3/day the week before | -0.4% | +8.8% | +6.2% | -3.7% |
| Oct 15, 2024 | Oct 16 @ $672.25 | 59 mentions vs 2.3/day the week before | +2.5% | +3.7% | +1.6% | +10.9% |
| Jul 16, 2024 | Jul 17 @ $915.00 | 60 mentions vs 2.4/day the week before | -0.8% | -6.4% | -0.2% | -21.5% |
| Apr 17, 2024 | Apr 18 @ $870.95 | 184 mentions vs 5.9/day the week before | -3.3% | +1.5% | +4.3% | +0.9% |
| Oct 16, 2022 | Oct 17 @ $378.66 | 37 mentions vs 2.1/day the week before | +1.7% | +20.6% | +52.8% | +66.8% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.