ASML
Falling despite an earnings beat
- ASML −3.94% on the last session vs SPY −1.08%: −2.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Reported 3Q2026 today before the open: EPS $11.82 vs $10.76 expected (beat, +$1.06, +9.9%); revenue $11.7B (-0.5% in line). The stock moved -3.9% on Wed's session (-2.9 pts vs SPY).
- News: Chip equipment sector fell 4.20% as tech declined on inflation concerns and AI trade worries.
- Chip equipment basket -4.2% (-3.1 pts vs SPY; TER -5.5%, LRCX -4.7%, AMAT -3.8%, KLAC -2.8%): the stock moved with its peers. Overnight: Tokyo Electron (Tokyo) -2.7%.
- Aftermath, earnings beat (3Q2026 beat +10%; today is the reaction session): After its 19 earnings beats in the past 5 years, ASML was higher a day later 12 times out of 19; half the outcomes fell between -1.7% and +2.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 64 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 69% positive over the week · today's pace is 9.2× its recent daily average.
- Market backdrop (Today): CPI m/m 0.6% vs 0.6% expected (in line); CPI y/y 3.7% vs 3.6% expected (hotter); S&P futures -0.68%, 10-year yield +12bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume 2.0× its 20-day average.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,254 | — | +0.1%648/1253 up | +0.3%665/1249 up | +1.6%676/1233 up | +4.0%710/1191 up |
| Big drop latest session (-2.8% or worse) | 57 | — | +0.1%28/56 up | -0.4%27/56 up | +2.3%33/56 up | +10.8%38/53 up |
| Big gain (+3.2% or better) | 68 | — | -0.1%34/68 up | +0.2%36/68 up | +3.5%43/67 up | +6.8%37/63 up |
| Earnings beat latest session | 19 | -2.4%8/19 up | +0.8%12/19 up | -0.4%9/19 up | +1.5%12/19 up | +2.0%10/19 up |
| Earnings miss | 1 | -2.2%0/1 up | +2.3%1/1 up | -5.9%0/1 up | +2.1%1/1 up | -1.7%0/1 up |
| 52-week high | 14 | — | -0.5%5/14 up | +1.6%11/14 up | +0.9%8/14 up | +5.0%7/14 up |
| 52-week low | 2 | — | -0.9%1/2 up | +3.2%2/2 up | +10.8%2/2 up | +19.7%2/2 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 7 | — | -0.9%3/7 up | +3.8%5/7 up | +4.5%5/7 up | +19.5%5/7 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 5 | — | +1.4%4/5 up | +2.0%5/5 up | +4.5%4/5 up | +6.0%4/5 up |
| RSI oversold | 6 | — | +0.4%4/6 up | +4.6%5/6 up | +7.7%6/6 up | +25.0%4/6 up |
| RSI overbought | 14 | — | +0.1%7/14 up | +2.6%10/14 up | +2.1%8/14 up | +3.1%8/14 up |
| Volume spike | 9 | — | -0.8%3/9 up | -1.3%4/9 up | +1.5%7/9 up | +2.0%6/9 up |
| Theme selloff latest session hindsight | 71 | — | +0.2%36/70 up | -0.5%33/70 up | +1.6%39/69 up | +4.2%42/64 up |
| Theme rally hindsight | 75 | — | +0.2%41/75 up | +0.2%39/75 up | +2.8%47/74 up | +7.0%43/71 up |
| Mention spike (Trendy) latest session | 14 | — | +0.8%7/13 up | +3.7%9/13 up | +4.3%9/13 up | +2.1%7/12 up |
| Analyst upgrade | 3 | — | -1.1%1/3 up | +2.3%2/3 up | +8.3%2/3 up | +8.8%3/3 up |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is ASML's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session or today, from the live quote.
Theme rally
The stock's theme peers (equal weight, without the stock) beat the S&P 500 by one of their best 10% gaps of the prior 2 years, and by at least 2 pts.
Hindsight: the history below is judged with today's theme lists, which were set on Oct 7, 2026 and hold the stocks that belong to each story now, including ones that didn't back then. So there is no S&P 500 comparison. The clean record starts on Oct 7, 2026: 0 theme rallies since then; its record shows once there are 3.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 75 | +0.23% | 41 of 75 | +0.06% |
-8%
+7%
|
— |
| 1 week | 75 | +0.24% | 39 of 75 | -0.42% |
-11%
+23%
|
— |
| 1 month | 74 ≈44 indep. | +2.83% | 47 of 74 | +0.18% |
-17%
+36%
|
— |
| 1 quarter | 71 ≈15 indep. | +7.00% | 43 of 71 | +0.50% |
-26%
+55%
|
— |
Range of outcomes: all of ASML's theme rallies in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Theme rally by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 61 | +0.3%61 events vs +0.2% | +0.2%61 events vs +0.5% | +2.5%60 events vs +2.9% | +7.0%57 events vs +8.0% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 14 | +0.1%14 events vs +0.2% | +0.6%14 events vs +0.2% | +5.8%14 events vs +1.9% | +7.0%14 events vs +8.8% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 50 | +0.5%50 events vs +0.1% | +0.3%50 events vs +0.3% | +1.8%50 events vs +1.4% | +6.8%49 events vs +5.0% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 25 | 0.0%25 events vs +0.2% | -0.7%25 events vs +0.3% | +6.0%24 events vs +2.5% | +10.1%22 events vs +4.2% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 53 | +0.5%53 events vs +0.1% | +0.2%53 events vs +0.2% | +2.3%53 events vs +1.3% | +8.3%52 events vs +2.8% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 22 | +0.1%22 events vs +0.2% | +0.3%22 events vs +0.7% | +4.2%21 events vs +2.1% | +3.4%19 events vs +6.9% |
The same event split by where ASML stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Latest theme rallies
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 18 @ $1,679.92 | Chip equipment peers +5.7 pts vs SPY; the stock +3.1% | +1.9% | +3.8% | … | … |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Sep 4 @ $1,714.88 | Chip equipment peers +6.0 pts vs SPY; the stock +4.2% | +2.9% | -8.1% | +7.0% | … |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Aug 12 @ $1,810.07 | Chip equipment peers +4.5 pts vs SPY; the stock +0.6% | +2.1% | -3.2% | -6.2% | … |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Jul 30 @ $1,651.44 | Chip equipment peers +11.7 pts vs SPY; the stock +6.5% | -1.4% | +3.2% | +2.7% | … |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Jul 14 @ $1,773.35 | Chip equipment peers +3.6 pts vs SPY; the stock +2.9% | +2.2% | +1.5% | +2.1% | -1.3% |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Jun 30 @ $1,986.87 | Chip equipment peers +4.8 pts vs SPY; the stock +5.7% | -7.4% | -11.1% | -16.9% | -7.7% |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Jun 22 @ $1,926.76 | Chip equipment peers +4.6 pts vs SPY; the stock -0.0% | -7.8% | -2.4% | -6.6% | -11.2% |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Jun 11 @ $1,897.03 | Chip equipment peers +9.9 pts vs SPY; the stock +9.5% | -1.9% | +1.6% | -6.5% | -10.5% |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Jun 2 @ $1,703.17 | Chip equipment peers +5.9 pts vs SPY; the stock +4.7% | +1.2% | +4.2% | +3.8% | -2.2% |
| May 20, 2026 | May 20 @ $1,548.13 | Chip equipment peers +5.0 pts vs SPY; the stock +6.2% | +2.7% | +3.6% | +24.5% | +13.1% |
| May 5, 2026 | May 5 @ $1,441.06 | Chip equipment peers +3.9 pts vs SPY; the stock +4.1% | +7.1% | +5.4% | +21.8% | +16.5% |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Apr 24 @ $1,452.64 | Chip equipment peers +3.6 pts vs SPY; the stock +2.8% | -1.5% | -1.9% | +12.2% | +13.8% |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Apr 1 @ $1,355.04 | Chip equipment peers +3.2 pts vs SPY; the stock +3.0% | -3.1% | +6.5% | +5.2% | +30.4% |
| Mar 24, 2026 | Mar 24 @ $1,394.57 | Chip equipment peers +4.0 pts vs SPY; the stock +2.2% | -0.4% | -5.6% | +1.3% | +26.2% |
| Mar 9, 2026 | Mar 9 @ $1,352.71 | Chip equipment peers +5.4 pts vs SPY; the stock +5.0% | +1.9% | +1.3% | +4.7% | +29.1% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.