ASTS
Down on SpaceX spectrum deal closing
- ASTS −10.48% on the last session vs SPY +0.60%: −11.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- News: 247wallst.com reported SpaceX locked up low-band spectrum ASTS had been pursuing, raising questions about direct-to-device satellite connectivity. (247wallst.com)
- More than its group: its space peers -0.7% (-1.3 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, mention spike (trendy) (307 mentions vs 24.4/day the week before): After its 54 mention spikes in the past 5 years, ASTS typically lost 1.1% over the next week (median) and was higher only 46% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -6.2% and +7.6%. An ordinary week: -0.2%. Among S&P 500 stocks after mention spikes, that ranks #74 of 92.
- 351 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 72% positive over the week · today's pace is 12.6× its recent daily average.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: B. Riley Securities downgraded to Neutral, lowered target $85.00 → $65.00.
- 2 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 1 insider sale not under a 10b5-1 plan.
- Market backdrop (Wed): Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15-16, 2026; S&P futures +0.03%, 10-year yield -1bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume 4.9× its 20-day average.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | — | -0.2%#364 H | -0.2%#340 H | -1.3%#305 H | +1.4%#250 M |
| Big drop latest session (-7.2% or worse) | 78 | — | -0.5%#354 H | +2.4%#209 H | +4.3%#202 H | +4.2%#240 M |
| Big gain (+8.9% or better) | 70 | — | -0.8%#310 H | -1.6%#294 H | -2.5%#282 H | -5.5%#289 M |
| Earnings beat | 6 | -0.6%#234 L | +2.8%#231 L | -2.8%#269 L | +4.1%#240 L | -10.1%#228 L |
| Earnings miss | 11 | +4.2%#111 M | +0.6%#113 M | -5.4%#216 M | +2.3%#123 M | +14.8%#119 M |
| 52-week high | 8 | — | -3.4%#342 M | +1.2%#238 M | +18.8%#173 M | +13.5%#203 L |
| 52-week low | 5 | — | +10.4%#80 L | +3.9%#120 L | +12.4%#21 L | +31.4%#29 L |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 10 | — | +2.6%#195 M | +0.6%#242 M | +17.9%#215 M | -15.3%#289 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 10 | — | -1.4%#337 M | -7.8%#322 M | -3.3%#259 M | -19.5%#309 L |
| RSI oversold | 11 | — | +2.9%#178 M | +9.5%#97 M | +12.1%#81 M | +4.1%#244 L |
| RSI overbought | 13 | — | +2.4%#226 M | +8.3%#177 M | +9.4%#220 M | +5.1%#216 M |
| Volume spike latest session | 24 | — | +1.6%#201 H | +0.8%#235 H | +4.2%#207 M | +8.1%#202 M |
| Theme selloff | 73 | — | -0.4%#58 H | +1.7%#24 H | -4.6%#62 H | -4.4%#73 M |
| Theme rally | 86 | — | -0.5%#55 H | -0.4%#53 H | -1.8%#59 H | -8.3%#77 M |
| Mention spike (Trendy) latest session | 55 | — | -0.1%#54 H | -1.1%#74 H | -3.1%#59 H | +16.8%#16 M |
| Analyst upgrade | 3 | — | +1.2%#11 L | +15.3%#6 L | +16.8%#2 L | +56.6%– |
| Analyst downgrade Oct 5 | 6 | — | +7.4%#5 L | +9.6%#5 L | -18.5%#6 L | +11.5%#4 L |
| Insider buy | 4 | — | -1.6%#5 L | +3.3%#3 L | +19.5%#2 L | +12.5%– |
| Insider unplanned sale | 10 | — | -1.2%#26 M | -7.7%#34 M | +1.5%#22 L | -14.3%#23 L |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is ASTS's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session or today, from the live quote.
Any day
Every session: the plain holding return, the baseline for the events below.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 1254 | -0.22% (-0.5 to 0.0) | High | #364 of 503 | 48% | -0.26% |
-27%
+69%
|
|
| 1 week | 1250 ≈250 indep. | -0.24% (-1.1 to +0.5) | High | #340 of 503 | 49% | -0.63% |
-33%
+136%
|
|
| 1 month | 1234 ≈59 indep. | -1.28% (-4.7 to +3.6) | High | #305 of 503 | 48% | -1.54% |
-55%
+337%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 1192 ≈19 indep. | +1.43% (-8.4 to +11.0) | Medium | #250 of 501 | 51% | -2.23% |
-67%
+1212%
|
Range of outcomes: all of ASTS's days in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Any day by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 556 | +0.2%H vs +0.2% | -1.1%H vs -1.1% | -3.1%H vs -3.1% | +4.5%M vs +4.5% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 500 | -0.4%H vs -0.4% | +1.0%H vs +1.0% | +1.7%H vs +1.7% | -6.0%M vs -6.0% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 512 | -0.4%H vs -0.4% | -0.7%H vs -0.7% | -6.7%H vs -6.7% | -9.5%M vs -9.5% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 694 | 0.0%H vs 0.0% | 0.0%H vs 0.0% | +2.2%H vs +2.2% | +12.4%M vs +12.4% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 591 | -0.2%H vs -0.2% | +0.9%H vs +0.9% | -0.5%H vs -0.5% | -7.3%M vs -7.3% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 645 | -0.3%H vs -0.3% | -1.1%H vs -1.1% | -1.8%H vs -1.8% | +11.9%M vs +11.9% |
The same event split by where ASTS stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.