ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. · Technology · Communication Equipment
$50.97
-10.48% today · -12.81% 1W
Oct 9 close or latest
ReadoutWhy it's moving
Down on SpaceX spectrum deal closing
- ASTS −10.48% on the last session vs SPY +0.60%: −11.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- News: 247wallst.com reported SpaceX locked up low-band spectrum ASTS had been pursuing, raising questions about direct-to-device satellite connectivity. (247wallst.com)
- More than its group: its space peers -0.7% (-1.3 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, mention spike (trendy) (307 mentions vs 24.4/day the week before): After its 54 mention spikes in the past 5 years, ASTS typically lost 1.1% over the next week (median) and was higher only 46% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -6.2% and +7.6%. An ordinary week: -0.2%. Among S&P 500 stocks after mention spikes, that ranks #74 of 92.
- 351 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 72% positive over the week · today's pace is 12.6× its recent daily average.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: B. Riley Securities downgraded to Neutral, lowered target $85.00 → $65.00.
- 2 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 1 insider sale not under a 10b5-1 plan.
- Market backdrop (Wed): Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15-16, 2026; S&P futures +0.03%, 10-year yield -1bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume 4.9× its 20-day average.
Assembled from Wallsti's own signals and the session's headlines and filings read by AI (Claude); it can misread, so the sources are linked.
Latest session
Mention spike (Trendy)
307 mentions vs 24.4/day the week before
After its 54 mention spikes in the past 5 years, ASTS typically lost 1.1% over the next week (median) and was higher only 46% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -6.2% and +7.6%. An ordinary week: -0.2%. Among S&P 500 stocks after mention spikes, that ranks #74 of 92.
See the aftermath
Latest session
Big drop
-10.5% on the day (line -7.1%)
After its 77 big drops in the past 5 years, ASTS typically lost 0.5% over the next day (median) and was higher only 44% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -2.3% and +3.0%. An ordinary day: -0.2%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big drops, that ranks #354 of 500.
See the aftermath
Latest session
Volume spike
4.8x average volume, -10.5% on the day
After its 23 volume spikes in the past 5 years, ASTS typically gained 1.6% over the next day (median) and was higher 52% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -2.0% and +8.1%. An ordinary day: -0.2%. Among S&P 500 stocks after volume spikes, that ranks #201 of 487.
See the aftermath
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | — | -0.2%#364 H | -0.2%#340 H | -1.3%#305 H | +1.4%#250 M |
| Big drop latest session (-7.2% or worse) | 78 | — | -0.5%#354 H | +2.4%#209 H | +4.3%#202 H | +4.2%#240 M |
| Big gain (+8.9% or better) | 70 | — | -0.8%#310 H | -1.6%#294 H | -2.5%#282 H | -5.5%#289 M |
| Earnings beat | 6 | -0.6%#234 L | +2.8%#231 L | -2.8%#269 L | +4.1%#240 L | -10.1%#228 L |
| Earnings miss | 11 | +4.2%#111 M | +0.6%#113 M | -5.4%#216 M | +2.3%#123 M | +14.8%#119 M |
| 52-week high | 8 | — | -3.4%#342 M | +1.2%#238 M | +18.8%#173 M | +13.5%#203 L |
| 52-week low | 5 | — | +10.4%#80 L | +3.9%#120 L | +12.4%#21 L | +31.4%#29 L |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 10 | — | +2.6%#195 M | +0.6%#242 M | +17.9%#215 M | -15.3%#289 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 10 | — | -1.4%#337 M | -7.8%#322 M | -3.3%#259 M | -19.5%#309 L |
| RSI oversold | 11 | — | +2.9%#178 M | +9.5%#97 M | +12.1%#81 M | +4.1%#244 L |
| RSI overbought | 13 | — | +2.4%#226 M | +8.3%#177 M | +9.4%#220 M | +5.1%#216 M |
| Volume spike latest session | 24 | — | +1.6%#201 H | +0.8%#235 H | +4.2%#207 M | +8.1%#202 M |
| Theme selloff | 73 | — | -0.4%#58 H | +1.7%#24 H | -4.6%#62 H | -4.4%#73 M |
| Theme rally | 86 | — | -0.5%#55 H | -0.4%#53 H | -1.8%#59 H | -8.3%#77 M |
| Mention spike (Trendy) latest session | 55 | — | -0.1%#54 H | -1.1%#74 H | -3.1%#59 H | +16.8%#16 M |
| Analyst upgrade | 3 | — | +1.2%#11 L | +15.3%#6 L | +16.8%#2 L | +56.6%– |
| Analyst downgrade Oct 5 | 6 | — | +7.4%#5 L | +9.6%#5 L | -18.5%#6 L | +11.5%#4 L |
| Insider buy | 4 | — | -1.6%#5 L | +3.3%#3 L | +19.5%#2 L | +12.5%– |
| Insider unplanned sale | 10 | — | -1.2%#26 M | -7.7%#34 M | +1.5%#22 L | -14.3%#23 L |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is ASTS's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session or today, from the live quote.
Theme rally
The stock's theme peers (equal weight, without the stock) beat the S&P 500 by one of their best 10% gaps of the prior 2 years, and by at least 2 pts.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 86 | -0.47% (-1.3 to +0.4) | High | #55 of 81 | 48% | -0.30% |
-16%
+24%
|
|
| 1 week | 86 | -0.37% (-1.7 to +1.9) | High | #53 of 81 | 48% | -1.32% |
-22%
+41%
|
|
| 1 month | 86 ≈42 indep. | -1.75% (-5.5 to +3.1) | High | #59 of 81 | 48% | -0.99% |
-51%
+266%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 85 ≈15 indep. | -8.27% (-11.4 to +9.3) | Medium | #77 of 81 | 46% | -9.46% |
-57%
+804%
|
Range of outcomes: all of ASTS's theme rallies in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Theme rally by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 54 | -0.1%H vs +0.2% | +0.1%H vs -1.1% | -3.3%H vs -3.1% | +1.3%M vs +4.5% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 32 | -0.5%H vs -0.4% | -1.2%H vs +1.0% | +0.1%H vs +1.7% | -9.6%M vs -6.0% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 46 | -0.7%H vs -0.4% | +0.6%H vs -0.7% | -2.3%H vs -6.7% | -9.5%M vs -9.5% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 40 | +0.4%H vs 0.0% | -0.8%H vs 0.0% | +0.1%H vs +2.2% | +2.4%M vs +12.4% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 52 | -0.7%H vs -0.2% | -0.5%H vs +0.9% | -1.8%H vs -0.5% | -9.4%M vs -7.3% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 34 | +0.4%H vs -0.3% | 0.0%H vs -1.1% | -1.1%H vs -1.8% | 0.0%M vs +11.9% |
The same event split by where ASTS stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest theme rallies
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | Aug 7 @ $71.94 | Space peers +9.5 pts vs SPY; the stock +6.8% | -4.4% | -1.3% | -8.1% | … |
| Jun 29, 2026 | Jun 29 @ $86.77 | Space peers +9.5 pts vs SPY; the stock +21.4% | +2.4% | -14.5% | -38.9% | -29.7% |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Jun 11 @ $97.56 | Space peers +10.3 pts vs SPY; the stock +11.7% | -15.5% | -17.3% | -29.5% | -38.6% |
| May 22, 2026 | May 22 @ $105.86 | Space peers +7.7 pts vs SPY; the stock +10.0% | +13.1% | -0.2% | -35.8% | -41.1% |
| May 8, 2026 | May 8 @ $75.05 | Space peers +20.9 pts vs SPY; the stock +14.8% | +10.0% | +11.5% | +18.2% | -8.4% |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Apr 16 @ $90.94 | Space peers +14.0 pts vs SPY; the stock +4.6% | -5.9% | -13.4% | -8.0% | -36.4% |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Apr 2 @ $92.62 | Space peers +12.8 pts vs SPY; the stock +10.3% | +2.4% | +2.5% | -26.1% | -12.9% |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Mar 25 @ $96.06 | Space peers +11.5 pts vs SPY; the stock +10.4% | -8.5% | -12.6% | -20.5% | -31.7% |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Mar 17 @ $95.70 | Space peers +8.8 pts vs SPY; the stock +7.4% | -5.2% | -9.1% | -5.0% | -14.1% |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Feb 26 @ $85.76 | Space peers +6.8 pts vs SPY; the stock +4.1% | -7.7% | +9.4% | -8.3% | +55.2% |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Feb 18 @ $84.43 | Space peers +6.2 pts vs SPY; the stock +1.7% | +2.3% | -2.5% | +11.4% | +4.3% |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Feb 6 @ $101.79 | Space peers +10.2 pts vs SPY; the stock +9.1% | +0.3% | -18.9% | -14.0% | -26.3% |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Jan 27 @ $111.34 | Space peers +8.5 pts vs SPY; the stock +6.3% | +8.9% | +4.0% | -23.0% | -35.4% |
| Jan 12, 2026 | Jan 12 @ $98.39 | Space peers +6.2 pts vs SPY; the stock +0.7% | -5.8% | +14.3% | -1.5% | -10.0% |
| Jan 2, 2026 | Jan 2 @ $83.47 | Space peers +7.3 pts vs SPY; the stock +14.9% | +8.9% | +17.0% | +38.7% | +13.6% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.