ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. · Technology · Communication Equipment
$50.97
-10.48% today · -12.81% 1W
Oct 9 close or latest
ReadoutWhy it's moving
Down as SpaceX locks up low-band spectrum
- ASTS −10.48% on the last session vs SPY +0.60%: −11.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- News: SpaceX acquired low-band spectrum ASTS had pursued, per 247wallst.com. (247wallst.com)
- More than its group: its space peers -0.7% (-1.3 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, mention spike (trendy) (289 mentions vs 24.4/day the week before): After its 54 mention spikes in the past 5 years, ASTS typically lost 1.1% over the next week (median) and was higher only 46% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -6.2% and +7.6%. An ordinary week: -0.2%. Among S&P 500 stocks after mention spikes, that ranks #74 of 92.
- 363 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 71% positive over the week · today's pace is 11.8× its recent daily average.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: B. Riley Securities downgraded to Neutral, lowered target $85.00 → $65.00.
- 2 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 1 insider sale not under a 10b5-1 plan.
- Market backdrop (Wed): Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15-16, 2026; S&P futures +0.03%, 10-year yield -1bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume 4.8× its 20-day average.
Assembled from Wallsti's own signals and the session's headlines and filings read by AI (Claude); it can misread, so the sources are linked.
Latest session
Mention spike (Trendy)
289 mentions vs 24.4/day the week before
After its 54 mention spikes in the past 5 years, ASTS typically lost 1.1% over the next week (median) and was higher only 46% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -6.2% and +7.6%. An ordinary week: -0.2%. Among S&P 500 stocks after mention spikes, that ranks #74 of 92.
See the aftermath
Latest session
Big drop
-10.5% on the day (line -7.1%)
After its 77 big drops in the past 5 years, ASTS typically lost 0.5% over the next day (median) and was higher only 44% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -2.3% and +3.0%. An ordinary day: -0.2%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big drops, that ranks #354 of 500.
Latest session
Volume spike
4.8x average volume, -10.5% on the day
After its 23 volume spikes in the past 5 years, ASTS typically gained 1.6% over the next day (median) and was higher 52% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -2.0% and +8.1%. An ordinary day: -0.2%. Among S&P 500 stocks after volume spikes, that ranks #201 of 487.
See the aftermath
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | — | -0.2%#364 H | -0.2%#340 H | -1.3%#305 H | +1.4%#250 M |
| Big drop latest session (-7.2% or worse) | 78 | — | -0.5%#354 H | +2.4%#209 H | +4.3%#202 H | +4.2%#240 M |
| Big gain (+8.9% or better) | 70 | — | -0.8%#310 H | -1.6%#294 H | -2.5%#282 H | -5.5%#289 M |
| Earnings beat | 6 | -0.6%#234 L | +2.8%#231 L | -2.8%#269 L | +4.1%#240 L | -10.1%#228 L |
| Earnings miss | 11 | +4.2%#111 M | +0.6%#113 M | -5.4%#216 M | +2.3%#123 M | +14.8%#119 M |
| 52-week high | 8 | — | -3.4%#342 M | +1.2%#238 M | +18.8%#173 M | +13.5%#203 L |
| 52-week low | 5 | — | +10.4%#80 L | +3.9%#120 L | +12.4%#21 L | +31.4%#29 L |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 10 | — | +2.6%#195 M | +0.6%#242 M | +17.9%#215 M | -15.3%#289 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 10 | — | -1.4%#337 M | -7.8%#322 M | -3.3%#259 M | -19.5%#309 L |
| RSI oversold | 11 | — | +2.9%#178 M | +9.5%#97 M | +12.1%#81 M | +4.1%#244 L |
| RSI overbought | 13 | — | +2.4%#226 M | +8.3%#177 M | +9.4%#220 M | +5.1%#216 M |
| Volume spike latest session | 24 | — | +1.6%#201 H | +0.8%#235 H | +4.2%#207 M | +8.1%#202 M |
| Theme selloff | 73 | — | -0.4%#58 H | +1.7%#24 H | -4.6%#62 H | -4.4%#73 M |
| Theme rally | 86 | — | -0.5%#55 H | -0.4%#53 H | -1.8%#59 H | -8.3%#77 M |
| Mention spike (Trendy) latest session | 55 | — | -0.1%#54 H | -1.1%#74 H | -3.1%#59 H | +16.8%#16 M |
| Analyst upgrade | 3 | — | +1.2%#11 L | +15.3%#6 L | +16.8%#2 L | +56.6%– |
| Analyst downgrade Oct 5 | 6 | — | +7.4%#5 L | +9.6%#5 L | -18.5%#6 L | +11.5%#4 L |
| Insider buy | 4 | — | -1.6%#5 L | +3.3%#3 L | +19.5%#2 L | +12.5%– |
| Insider unplanned sale | 10 | — | -1.2%#26 M | -7.7%#34 M | +1.5%#22 L | -14.3%#23 L |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is ASTS's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session or today, from the live quote.
Big drop (-7.2% or worse)
A daily fall among the stock's own worst 10% of the prior 2 years.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 77 | -0.55% (-1.1 to +0.4) | High | #354 of 500 | 44% | -0.27% |
-24%
+22%
|
|
| 1 week | 77 | +2.35% (+0.8 to +7.4) | High | #209 of 500 | 58% | +3.64% |
-28%
+96%
|
|
| 1 month | 77 ≈43 indep. | +4.25% (-3.9 to +15.3) | High | #202 of 500 | 56% | +2.52% |
-50%
+302%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 75 ≈15 indep. | +4.18% (-4.3 to +25.8) | Medium | #240 of 499 | 53% | +0.77% |
-52%
+747%
|
Range of outcomes: all of ASTS's big drops in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Big drop by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 46 | -0.4%H vs +0.2% | +3.7%H vs -1.1% | -2.6%H vs -3.1% | +20.5%M vs +4.5% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 32 | -0.5%H vs -0.4% | +2.4%H vs +1.0% | +15.3%H vs +1.7% | -3.8%M vs -6.0% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 36 | -0.7%H vs -0.4% | +9.6%H vs -0.7% | +1.4%H vs -6.7% | +3.8%M vs -9.5% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 42 | 0.0%H vs 0.0% | +0.4%H vs 0.0% | +8.4%H vs +2.2% | +4.2%M vs +12.4% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 31 | -0.8%H vs -0.2% | +9.7%H vs +0.9% | +18.7%H vs -0.5% | +0.8%M vs -7.3% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 47 | -0.2%H vs -0.3% | -0.1%H vs -1.1% | +0.8%H vs -1.8% | +6.2%M vs +11.9% |
The same event split by where ASTS stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest big drops
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Oct 9 @ $50.97 | -10.5% on the day (line -7.1%) | … | … | … | … |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Aug 24 @ $62.35 | -9.2% on the day (line -7.5%) | -0.5% | -5.2% | -3.8% | … |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Jul 16 @ $55.01 | -17.0% on the day (line -7.6%) | +5.1% | +7.6% | +29.0% | … |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Jul 7 @ $74.21 | -8.0% on the day (line -7.4%) | +1.0% | -7.3% | -7.9% | -21.3% |
| Jun 12, 2026 | Jun 12 @ $82.41 | -15.5% on the day (line -7.4%) | +6.3% | -11.2% | -19.5% | -27.2% |
| May 29, 2026 | May 29 @ $113.41 | -14.8% on the day (line -7.3%) | -6.8% | -17.5% | -21.6% | -48.8% |
| May 7, 2026 | May 7 @ $65.35 | -7.5% on the day (line -7.2%) | +14.8% | +27.0% | +40.9% | +10.1% |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Apr 14 @ $88.57 | -10.5% on the day (line -7.2%) | -1.9% | -9.7% | -15.5% | -25.1% |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Mar 26 @ $87.86 | -8.5% on the day (line -7.2%) | -10.5% | +5.4% | -12.1% | -18.7% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Feb 27 @ $79.19 | -7.7% on the day (line -7.2%) | +9.8% | +13.0% | -6.8% | +43.2% |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Feb 12 @ $82.22 | -15.2% on the day (line -7.1%) | +0.4% | -2.5% | +8.4% | +1.0% |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Jan 30 @ $111.21 | -8.9% on the day (line -6.9%) | -6.0% | -8.5% | -16.7% | -36.3% |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Jan 21 @ $103.50 | -8.0% on the day (line -6.8%) | +12.4% | +17.1% | -22.5% | -18.2% |
| Jan 7, 2026 | Jan 7 @ $85.73 | -12.1% on the day (line -6.8%) | +5.6% | +11.1% | +18.7% | +6.9% |
| Dec 24, 2025 | Dec 24 @ $78.05 | -8.9% on the day (line -6.8%) | -7.8% | +6.9% | +42.7% | +0.8% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.