F
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | — | +0.1%633/1254 up | +0.2%637/1250 up | +0.4%631/1234 up | -0.3%590/1192 up |
| Big drop (-2.4% or worse) | 58 | — | 0.0%29/58 up | +0.5%32/58 up | +2.2%35/57 up | +4.2%34/53 up |
| Big gain Oct 29 (+2.5% or better) | 57 | — | +0.2%31/57 up | +0.2%29/56 up | +0.5%29/56 up | +6.1%30/54 up |
| Earnings beat Oct 29 | 14 | +1.3%8/14 up | -1.6%3/14 up | +0.8%7/13 up | -1.8%6/13 up | +0.5%7/13 up |
| Earnings miss | 5 | -9.7%1/5 up | -0.4%2/5 up | +0.6%3/5 up | +2.6%3/5 up | +0.3%3/5 up |
| 52-week high | 7 | — | +0.2%4/7 up | -2.1%1/7 up | -1.6%3/7 up | +0.3%4/7 up |
| 52-week low | 3 | — | -0.2%1/3 up | +7.7%3/3 up | +11.1%3/3 up | +20.1%3/3 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 10 | — | -0.2%4/10 up | +1.6%8/10 up | +1.0%5/10 up | +1.3%5/10 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 14 | — | +0.5%9/14 up | 0.0%7/14 up | +0.7%8/14 up | +6.0%9/13 up |
| RSI oversold | 11 | — | +0.3%6/11 up | -0.4%5/11 up | +3.5%9/11 up | +11.0%8/10 up |
| RSI overbought | 12 | — | -0.3%5/12 up | +0.7%7/12 up | -5.5%4/12 up | -10.8%5/12 up |
| Volume spike | 10 | — | -0.7%3/10 up | +0.6%6/10 up | +4.8%7/10 up | +2.1%6/10 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | 54 | — | +0.1%27/54 up | -0.2%27/54 up | 0.0%26/53 up | +0.5%27/51 up |
| Theme rally hindsight | 60 | — | +0.4%35/60 up | -0.4%26/60 up | +0.3%30/60 up | +0.1%31/59 up |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst upgrade | 4 | — | -1.4%1/4 up | -3.2%0/4 up | +2.8%2/4 up | -0.2%2/4 up |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is F's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Theme rally
The stock's theme peers (equal weight, without the stock) beat the S&P 500 by one of their best 10% gaps of the prior 2 years, and by at least 2 pts.
Hindsight: the history below is judged with today's theme lists, which were set on Oct 7, 2026 and hold the stocks that belong to each story now, including ones that didn't back then. So there is no S&P 500 comparison. The clean record starts on Oct 7, 2026: 0 theme rallies since then; its record shows once there are 3.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 60 | +0.41% | 35 of 60 | +0.38% |
-4%
+7%
|
— |
| 1 week | 60 | -0.39% | 26 of 60 | -0.56% |
-13%
+10%
|
— |
| 1 month | 60 ≈38 indep. | +0.27% | 30 of 60 | -1.55% |
-29%
+22%
|
— |
| 1 quarter | 59 ≈15 indep. | +0.08% | 31 of 59 | -2.40% |
-23%
+26%
|
— |
Range of outcomes: all of F's theme rallies in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Theme rally by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 35 | +0.1%35 events vs 0.0% | -0.4%35 events vs -0.3% | -1.0%35 events vs -0.1% | -5.7%34 events vs -1.7% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 25 | +0.7%25 events vs +0.2% | -0.4%25 events vs +0.7% | +1.4%25 events vs +2.4% | +7.7%25 events vs +3.6% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 39 | +0.1%39 events vs 0.0% | -0.4%39 events vs -0.2% | -2.1%39 events vs -0.5% | -4.0%38 events vs -1.5% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 21 | +0.7%21 events vs +0.1% | -0.4%21 events vs +0.4% | +2.4%21 events vs +1.3% | +7.7%21 events vs +2.3% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 38 | +0.1%38 events vs 0.0% | -0.6%38 events vs -0.1% | -2.1%38 events vs -0.9% | -4.1%37 events vs -1.0% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 22 | +0.4%22 events vs +0.1% | +0.2%22 events vs +0.4% | +4.1%22 events vs +2.1% | +8.8%22 events vs +1.2% |
The same event split by where F stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Latest theme rallies
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Aug 19 @ $14.50 | EVs & autos peers +3.0 pts vs SPY; the stock +4.1% | -3.5% | -4.1% | -8.9% | … |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Jul 27 @ $14.52 | EVs & autos peers +2.8 pts vs SPY; the stock +2.2% | +1.9% | -1.7% | -3.9% | -20.1% |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Jul 15 @ $14.03 | EVs & autos peers +5.9 pts vs SPY; the stock +1.7% | +0.1% | +1.7% | -1.0% | -13.7% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Jun 26 @ $13.98 | EVs & autos peers +5.6 pts vs SPY; the stock +0.1% | -0.8% | -2.1% | +5.9% | -9.1% |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Jun 11 @ $14.55 | EVs & autos peers +2.8 pts vs SPY; the stock +2.9% | +0.9% | -4.4% | -5.2% | -4.0% |
| May 27, 2026 | May 27 @ $15.71 | EVs & autos peers +4.7 pts vs SPY; the stock +3.7% | +4.8% | -1.1% | -11.0% | -11.5% |
| May 13, 2026 | May 13 @ $13.42 | EVs & autos peers +3.1 pts vs SPY; the stock +13.2% | +6.7% | -2.6% | +9.4% | +3.5% |
| Mar 23, 2026 | Mar 23 @ $11.49 | EVs & autos peers +3.5 pts vs SPY; the stock +2.1% | +0.7% | -4.7% | +7.4% | +20.5% |
| Mar 10, 2026 | Mar 10 @ $11.96 | EVs & autos peers +3.9 pts vs SPY; the stock +0.4% | -1.1% | -2.5% | 0.0% | +23.7% |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Feb 6 @ $13.34 | EVs & autos peers +4.8 pts vs SPY; the stock +0.6% | -1.5% | +3.4% | -10.3% | -9.8% |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Jan 21 @ $13.31 | EVs & autos peers +4.7 pts vs SPY; the stock +3.7% | -0.4% | +0.4% | +2.8% | -7.3% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Dec 12 @ $13.30 | EVs & autos peers +3.2 pts vs SPY; the stock +0.9% | -0.8% | -2.1% | +0.6% | -12.3% |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Nov 5 @ $12.53 | EVs & autos peers +7.1 pts vs SPY; the stock +2.5% | +0.1% | +3.8% | +0.5% | +6.5% |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Sep 24 @ $11.11 | EVs & autos peers +3.1 pts vs SPY; the stock -0.8% | -0.1% | +5.5% | +6.1% | +15.6% |
| Sep 16, 2025 | Sep 16 @ $11.09 | EVs & autos peers +3.1 pts vs SPY; the stock -0.6% | +0.4% | +1.0% | +1.3% | +18.9% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.