FICO
Analyst cuts weighing on the stock
- FICO −0.08% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −0.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, analyst downgrade (Oct 1): After its 2 analyst downgrades in the past 5 years, FICO typically gained 2.1% over the next day (median) and was higher 50% of the time. An ordinary day: +0.2%. (Low confidence: few independent periods.)
- 1 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 73% positive over the week.
- 6 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 6 negative); latest: Barclays maintained Overweight, lowered target $935 → $875.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.2%#17 H | +0.5%#116 H | +2.8%#29 H | +10.0%#23 M |
| Big drop (-3.0% or worse) | 64 | +0.5%#91 H | +0.5%#245 H | +4.1%#116 H | +7.1%#190 M |
| Big gain Oct 1 (+3.1% or better) | 68 | +0.1%#199 H | +0.6%#200 H | +3.9%#18 H | +9.4%#105 M |
| Earnings beat | 15 | -0.6%#315 M | +1.8%#152 M | +4.8%#20 M | +5.5%#193 M |
| Earnings miss | 5 | +2.2%#2 L | +4.9%#39 L | +8.6%#12 L | +15.1%#37 L |
| 52-week high | 18 | +0.2%#103 M | +0.2%#195 M | +6.1%#7 M | +14.1%#11 M |
| 52-week low | 4 | -3.8%#224 L | +1.3%#124 L | +5.9%#111 L | +9.1%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 7 | -0.2%#333 L | +0.1%#258 L | +1.4%#243 L | -5.8%#268 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 8 | +0.4%#166 M | -1.9%#345 M | +3.3%#175 M | -4.2%#262 L |
| RSI oversold | 14 | +0.5%#171 M | +2.4%#63 M | +0.1%#275 M | +3.0%#335 L |
| RSI overbought | 21 | +0.5%#32 H | +1.0%#45 H | +2.3%#109 H | +5.1%#154 M |
| Mention spike (Trendy) Sep 30 | 1 | +11.7%– | — | — | — |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade Oct 1 | 2 | +2.1%– | -0.8%– | +5.0%– | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 4 | -0.5%#32 L | -0.4%#26 L | -9.5%#33 L | -19.6%– |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is FICO's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
RSI overbought
The 14-day RSI rises above 70.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 21 | +0.51% (+0.2 to +1.1) | High | #32 of 501 | 76% | +0.35% |
-2%
+7%
|
|
| 1 week | 21 | +0.97% (-0.7 to +1.3) | High | #45 of 501 | 52% | 0.00% |
-22%
+7%
|
|
| 1 month | 21 | +2.34% (+0.6 to +6.9) | High | #109 of 501 | 67% | +2.35% |
-17%
+22%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 21 ≈14 indep. | +5.15% (-7.9 to +13.8) | Medium | #154 of 501 | 57% | +8.66% |
-38%
+37%
|
Range of outcomes: all of FICO's overbought readings in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
RSI overbought by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 18 | +0.7%M vs +0.2% | +1.0%M vs +0.6% | +4.3%M vs +3.3% | +8.6%M vs +12.9% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 1 | +1.5%– vs +0.2% | -0.7%– vs +0.5% | -9.2%– vs +1.8% | -9.7%– vs -1.9% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 21 | +0.5%H vs +0.2% | +1.0%H vs +0.7% | +2.3%H vs +4.0% | +5.1%M vs +9.4% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | — | — | — | — | — |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 21 | +0.5%H vs +0.2% | +1.0%H vs +0.6% | +2.3%H vs +3.4% | +5.1%M vs +8.9% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | — | — | — | — | — |
The same event split by where FICO stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest overbought readings
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26, 2026 | May 26 @ $1,259.89 | RSI 71.1, +1.6% on the day | +1.5% | -0.7% | -9.2% | -9.7% |
| Oct 2, 2025 | Oct 2 @ $1,784.68 | RSI 74.5, +18.0% on the day | +3.7% | -4.3% | -7.0% | -7.9% |
| May 15, 2025 | May 15 @ $2,180.44 | RSI 71.6, +2.6% on the day | +1.0% | -22.0% | -16.8% | -38.4% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | Nov 7 @ $2,176.10 | RSI 74.5, +4.1% on the day | +7.2% | +6.8% | +2.3% | -17.4% |
| Oct 9, 2024 | Oct 9 @ $2,024.99 | RSI 72.9, +1.8% on the day | -2.0% | +1.3% | +7.5% | -5.3% |
| Sep 13, 2024 | Sep 13 @ $1,868.96 | RSI 70.1, +0.4% on the day | +1.4% | +3.5% | +10.7% | +17.2% |
| Aug 8, 2024 | Aug 8 @ $1,717.12 | RSI 71.3, +2.9% on the day | +2.0% | +1.0% | +3.5% | +21.8% |
| Jul 22, 2024 | Jul 22 @ $1,632.17 | RSI 72.8, +2.6% on the day | -0.2% | -2.7% | +7.2% | +20.9% |
| Jun 26, 2024 | Jun 26 @ $1,470.00 | RSI 70.9, +0.9% on the day | +0.5% | +4.1% | +9.2% | +29.9% |
| May 14, 2024 | May 14 @ $1,353.93 | RSI 71.9, +1.6% on the day | +1.1% | +1.5% | +1.9% | +33.7% |
| Jan 11, 2024 | Jan 11 @ $1,214.84 | RSI 72.1, +1.2% on the day | +1.3% | +3.7% | +6.9% | -3.2% |
| Dec 20, 2023 | Dec 20 @ $1,155.15 | RSI 70.0, +0.2% on the day | +0.9% | +1.2% | +10.9% | +10.5% |
| Nov 10, 2023 | Nov 10 @ $996.70 | RSI 71.7, +3.5% on the day | +1.6% | +4.6% | +16.3% | +27.4% |
| Jul 18, 2023 | Jul 18 @ $843.67 | RSI 70.8, +0.8% on the day | +0.1% | +1.0% | +0.6% | +5.1% |
| Feb 2, 2023 | Feb 2 @ $690.32 | RSI 71.6, +1.1% on the day | -1.3% | -1.8% | +0.9% | +6.7% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.