MSTR
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | — | -0.2%605/1254 up | -0.4%609/1250 up | -2.0%577/1234 up | +4.9%632/1192 up |
| Big drop latest session (-6.1% or worse) | 60 | — | -0.2%29/59 up | +0.7%32/59 up | +3.7%29/57 up | +12.4%36/56 up |
| Big gain (+6.0% or better) | 53 | — | -0.4%26/53 up | +2.2%29/53 up | +2.8%30/52 up | +28.2%36/49 up |
| Earnings beat latest session | 4 | -2.2%2/4 up | +0.9%2/4 up | +0.3%2/4 up | -7.7%1/4 up | +14.1%3/4 up |
| Earnings miss | 15 | -1.1%6/15 up | -1.8%5/15 up | -0.2%7/15 up | -15.5%6/15 up | +14.7%10/15 up |
| 52-week high | 7 | — | -1.7%2/7 up | +1.1%4/7 up | +20.6%5/7 up | +24.1%5/7 up |
| 52-week low | 5 | — | -2.9%2/5 up | -10.6%2/5 up | -3.9%2/5 up | +15.5%3/5 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 7 | — | -1.1%1/7 up | -1.8%3/7 up | +13.5%5/7 up | +18.9%4/6 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg latest session | 7 | — | +1.5%4/6 up | +9.4%4/6 up | +30.4%5/6 up | +38.0%3/5 up |
| RSI oversold | 10 | — | +4.0%6/10 up | +6.4%6/10 up | +12.4%7/10 up | +46.4%8/10 up |
| RSI overbought | 17 | — | -0.1%8/17 up | +0.4%10/17 up | +16.4%12/17 up | +27.4%11/15 up |
| Volume spike | 9 | — | +3.0%6/9 up | -2.5%3/9 up | +19.5%7/9 up | +13.6%7/8 up |
| Theme selloff latest session hindsight | 67 | — | +1.6%38/66 up | +1.6%40/66 up | +0.8%33/64 up | +26.4%41/61 up |
| Theme rally hindsight | 55 | — | +0.2%30/55 up | +0.8%31/55 up | +0.7%28/55 up | +19.9%35/52 up |
| Mention spike (Trendy) latest session | 50 | — | 0.0%24/49 up | -0.2%23/49 up | -6.8%20/49 up | -8.2%21/47 up |
| Analyst upgrade | 1 | — | -2.9%0/1 up | -10.6%0/1 up | -20.8%0/1 up | -46.8%0/1 up |
| Analyst downgrade | 1 | — | +4.1%1/1 up | -2.2%0/1 up | -24.8%0/1 up | -55.1%0/1 up |
| Insider buy | 8 | — | +1.1%5/8 up | -7.1%1/8 up | -18.1%1/8 up | -20.9%2/8 up |
| Insider unplanned sale | 16 | — | -0.6%6/16 up | -3.9%5/16 up | -9.4%6/15 up | -28.4%2/11 up |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is MSTR's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session or today, from the live quote.
Any day
Every session: the plain holding return, the baseline for the events below.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 1254 | -0.21% | 605 of 1254 | -0.43% |
-26%
+26%
|
|
| 1 week | 1250 ≈250 indep. | -0.38% | 609 of 1250 | -0.72% |
-54%
+67%
|
|
| 1 month | 1234 ≈59 indep. | -1.99% | 577 of 1234 | -2.52% |
-61%
+181%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 1192 ≈19 indep. | +4.95% | 632 of 1192 | +2.68% |
-67%
+254%
|
Range of outcomes: all of MSTR's days in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Any day by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 676 | -0.1%676 events vs -0.1% | +0.5%672 events vs +0.5% | +2.6%656 events vs +2.6% | +22.6%644 events vs +22.6% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 380 | -0.6%379 events vs -0.6% | -0.6%379 events vs -0.6% | -3.9%379 events vs -3.9% | -14.6%349 events vs -14.6% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 583 | -0.2%583 events vs -0.2% | -0.5%582 events vs -0.5% | -3.3%566 events vs -3.3% | +0.3%535 events vs +0.3% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 623 | -0.2%622 events vs -0.2% | +0.2%619 events vs +0.2% | +1.8%619 events vs +1.8% | +13.5%608 events vs +13.5% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 587 | -0.1%587 events vs -0.1% | +0.4%587 events vs +0.4% | -2.4%581 events vs -2.4% | +3.3%544 events vs +3.3% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 649 | -0.3%648 events vs -0.3% | -0.7%644 events vs -0.7% | -0.7%634 events vs -0.7% | +9.9%629 events vs +9.9% |
The same event split by where MSTR stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.