MSTR
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | — | -0.2%605/1254 up | -0.4%609/1250 up | -2.0%577/1234 up | +4.9%632/1192 up |
| Big drop latest session (-6.1% or worse) | 60 | — | -0.2%29/59 up | +0.7%32/59 up | +3.7%29/57 up | +12.4%36/56 up |
| Big gain (+6.0% or better) | 53 | — | -0.4%26/53 up | +2.2%29/53 up | +2.8%30/52 up | +28.2%36/49 up |
| Earnings beat latest session | 4 | -2.2%2/4 up | +0.9%2/4 up | +0.3%2/4 up | -7.7%1/4 up | +14.1%3/4 up |
| Earnings miss | 15 | -1.1%6/15 up | -1.8%5/15 up | -0.2%7/15 up | -15.5%6/15 up | +14.7%10/15 up |
| 52-week high | 7 | — | -1.7%2/7 up | +1.1%4/7 up | +20.6%5/7 up | +24.1%5/7 up |
| 52-week low | 5 | — | -2.9%2/5 up | -10.6%2/5 up | -3.9%2/5 up | +15.5%3/5 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 7 | — | -1.1%1/7 up | -1.8%3/7 up | +13.5%5/7 up | +18.9%4/6 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg latest session | 7 | — | +1.5%4/6 up | +9.4%4/6 up | +30.4%5/6 up | +38.0%3/5 up |
| RSI oversold | 10 | — | +4.0%6/10 up | +6.4%6/10 up | +12.4%7/10 up | +46.4%8/10 up |
| RSI overbought | 17 | — | -0.1%8/17 up | +0.4%10/17 up | +16.4%12/17 up | +27.4%11/15 up |
| Volume spike | 9 | — | +3.0%6/9 up | -2.5%3/9 up | +19.5%7/9 up | +13.6%7/8 up |
| Theme selloff latest session hindsight | 67 | — | +1.6%38/66 up | +1.6%40/66 up | +0.8%33/64 up | +26.4%41/61 up |
| Theme rally hindsight | 55 | — | +0.2%30/55 up | +0.8%31/55 up | +0.7%28/55 up | +19.9%35/52 up |
| Mention spike (Trendy) latest session | 50 | — | 0.0%24/49 up | -0.2%23/49 up | -6.8%20/49 up | -8.2%21/47 up |
| Analyst upgrade | 1 | — | -2.9%0/1 up | -10.6%0/1 up | -20.8%0/1 up | -46.8%0/1 up |
| Analyst downgrade | 1 | — | +4.1%1/1 up | -2.2%0/1 up | -24.8%0/1 up | -55.1%0/1 up |
| Insider buy | 8 | — | +1.1%5/8 up | -7.1%1/8 up | -18.1%1/8 up | -20.9%2/8 up |
| Insider unplanned sale | 16 | — | -0.6%6/16 up | -3.9%5/16 up | -9.4%6/15 up | -28.4%2/11 up |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is MSTR's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session or today, from the live quote.
Big gain (+6.0% or better)
A daily rise among the stock's own best 10% of the prior 2 years.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 53 | -0.35% | 26 of 53 | -0.46% |
-9%
+13%
|
|
| 1 week | 53 | +2.19% | 29 of 53 | +1.68% |
-37%
+67%
|
|
| 1 month | 52 ≈31 indep. | +2.80% | 30 of 52 | +5.53% |
-29%
+153%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 49 ≈13 indep. | +28.21% | 36 of 49 | +22.31% |
-46%
+216%
|
Range of outcomes: all of MSTR's big gains in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Big gain by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 40 | -0.4%40 events vs -0.1% | +0.3%40 events vs +0.5% | +3.0%39 events vs +2.6% | +28.5%38 events vs +22.6% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 13 | +0.4%13 events vs -0.6% | +5.4%13 events vs -0.6% | +2.6%13 events vs -3.9% | +24.6%11 events vs -14.6% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 38 | -0.1%38 events vs -0.2% | +2.0%38 events vs -0.5% | +0.1%37 events vs -3.3% | +9.6%34 events vs +0.3% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 15 | -0.5%15 events vs -0.2% | +2.2%15 events vs +0.2% | +13.6%15 events vs +1.8% | +40.8%15 events vs +13.5% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 38 | -0.4%38 events vs -0.1% | +2.6%38 events vs +0.4% | +0.1%37 events vs -2.4% | +19.6%34 events vs +3.3% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 15 | +1.1%15 events vs -0.3% | -0.8%15 events vs -0.7% | +13.6%15 events vs -0.7% | +39.0%15 events vs +9.9% |
The same event split by where MSTR stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Latest big gains
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Oct 21 @ $153.48 | +7.5% on the day (line +6.1%) | -5.0% | -5.4% | … | … |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 18 @ $153.92 | +16.4% on the day (line +6.2%) | +9.5% | +3.0% | -11.6% | … |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Aug 27 @ $137.40 | +11.5% on the day (line +6.2%) | -7.3% | +5.4% | +14.4% | … |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Aug 19 @ $104.25 | +12.7% on the day (line +6.2%) | +7.8% | +18.2% | +47.6% | … |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Jul 27 @ $98.65 | +7.6% on the day (line +6.2%) | -2.5% | -3.8% | +28.6% | +48.0% |
| Jun 29, 2026 | Jun 29 @ $92.68 | +12.6% on the day (line +6.2%) | -6.2% | +5.0% | +0.7% | +69.6% |
| May 1, 2026 | May 1 @ $177.17 | +7.1% on the day (line +6.7%) | +3.7% | +5.9% | -23.2% | -46.5% |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Apr 17 @ $166.52 | +11.8% on the day (line +6.6%) | +2.6% | +2.7% | +0.1% | -41.3% |
| Feb 25, 2026 | Feb 25 @ $135.65 | +8.9% on the day (line +8.1%) | -1.7% | +8.0% | -2.0% | +13.7% |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Feb 6 @ $134.93 | +26.1% on the day (line +8.6%) | +2.6% | -0.8% | +2.6% | +39.0% |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Apr 9 @ $296.86 | +24.8% on the day (line +8.9%) | -8.3% | +5.0% | +40.1% | +46.4% |
| Mar 24, 2025 | Mar 24 @ $335.72 | +10.4% on the day (line +8.9%) | +1.8% | -14.1% | +3.0% | +12.3% |
| Mar 14, 2025 | Mar 14 @ $297.49 | +13.0% on the day (line +9.0%) | -1.1% | +2.2% | +4.7% | +28.7% |
| Mar 4, 2025 | Mar 4 @ $275.15 | +9.7% on the day (line +8.7%) | +12.1% | -5.3% | +13.6% | +40.8% |
| Jan 3, 2025 | Jan 3 @ $339.66 | +13.2% on the day (line +9.0%) | +11.6% | -3.3% | -0.9% | -21.1% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.