MU
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- MU −2.05% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −2.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Reported 4Q2026 Sep 30 after the close: EPS $33.42 vs $31.82 expected (beat, +$1.60, +5.0%); revenue $54.2B. The stock moved +3.0% on Thu's session (+2.9 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, earnings beat (Oct 1): After its 18 earnings beats in the past 5 years, MU typically lost 0.5% over the next day (median) and was higher only 44% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -2.0% and +3.0%. An ordinary day: +0.1%. Among S&P 500 stocks after earnings beats, that ranks #326 of 497.
- 34 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 72% positive over the week.
- 11 analyst actions in the past 10 days (4 positive, 0 negative); latest: Rosenblatt maintained Buy, raised target $1,500 → $1,900.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#172 H | +0.7%#87 H | +4.1%#11 H | +9.0%#63 M |
| Big drop (-4.2% or worse) | 65 | -0.1%#290 H | 0.0%#295 H | +3.3%#134 H | +8.3%#215 M |
| Big gain (+5.6% or better) | 75 | +0.3%#144 H | +2.2%#21 H | +3.8%#132 H | +16.8%#113 M |
| Earnings beat Oct 1 | 18 | -0.5%#326 M | 0.0%#245 M | +0.9%#253 M | +8.3%#184 M |
| Earnings miss | 2 | +0.4%– | -4.5%– | +13.1%– | +11.3%– |
| 52-week high | 14 | -0.4%#267 M | +3.4%#62 M | +9.0%#163 M | +34.6%#109 L |
| 52-week low | 1 | -12.9%– | -5.8%– | +8.2%– | +61.5%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 6 | -1.3%#463 L | -2.5%#453 L | -4.8%#366 L | -5.0%#332 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 5 | -2.5%#391 L | +0.4%#249 L | +1.0%#250 L | +7.6%#189 L |
| RSI oversold | 4 | +1.1%#242 L | -2.4%#342 L | +10.6%#104 L | +0.6%#272 L |
| RSI overbought | 21 | -0.9%#484 H | +2.9%#129 H | +10.5%#131 M | +14.3%#92 M |
| Reddit spike Oct 1 | 50 | +1.2%#6 H | +0.7%#32 H | +4.0%#19 H | +21.2%#2 M |
| Analyst upgrade | 3 | +4.0%#8 L | +0.7%#8 L | +27.9%#5 L | +65.9%– |
| Analyst downgrade | 1 | +5.5%– | +3.4%– | +23.5%– | +75.5%– |
| Insider buy | 1 | +0.6%– | +7.3%– | +16.0%– | +23.7%– |
| Insider unplanned sale | 12 | -1.3%#26 M | +4.7%#5 M | +12.2%#7 M | +25.2%#5 L |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is MU's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Reddit spike
Daily Reddit mentions at least 3x the prior week's average (20 or more); entry the next session.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 50 ≈49 indep. | +1.17% (+0.4 to +2.2) | High | #6 of 92 | 62% | +0.69% |
-7%
+19%
|
|
| 1 week | 49 ≈48 indep. | +0.74% (-0.7 to +2.7) | High | #32 of 92 | 53% | +0.89% |
-23%
+38%
|
|
| 1 month | 47 ≈32 indep. | +4.05% (-1.4 to +10.0) | High | #19 of 91 | 62% | +2.53% |
-34%
+80%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 43 ≈18 indep. | +21.23% (+1.4 to +29.1) | Medium | #2 of 87 | 70% | +16.74% |
-38%
+169%
|
Range of outcomes: all of MU's Reddit spikes in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Reddit spike by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 40 | +0.5%H vs +0.1% | +0.7%H vs +1.0% | +4.5%H vs +5.9% | +32.1%M vs +21.5% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 7 | +1.6%L vs +0.1% | +1.3%L vs +0.6% | +4.0%L vs +1.0% | -4.7%L vs +3.1% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 36 | +0.5%H vs 0.0% | 0.0%H vs 0.0% | +3.2%H vs +2.8% | +25.3%M vs +14.8% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 14 | +2.7%M vs +0.3% | +2.0%M vs +1.8% | +7.4%M vs +4.5% | -3.1%M vs +2.0% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 31 | +0.6%H vs +0.1% | +1.7%H vs +0.6% | +4.0%M vs +3.6% | +21.2%M vs +10.5% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 19 | +2.3%M vs +0.2% | +0.4%M vs +1.2% | +4.0%M vs +4.6% | +11.4%M vs +5.5% |
The same event split by where MU stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest Reddit spikes
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | Oct 1 @ $1,097.39 | 1185 mentions vs 120.0/day the week before | -2.0% | … | … | … |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 17 @ $977.50 | 37 mentions vs 11.1/day the week before | +3.9% | +10.5% | … | … |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Sep 8 @ $1,000.26 | 102 mentions vs 29.0/day the week before | +2.8% | -7.3% | … | … |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Aug 28 @ $932.86 | 161 mentions vs 25.1/day the week before | +2.8% | +9.0% | +14.2% | … |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Jul 30 @ $874.66 | 360 mentions vs 100.6/day the week before | -5.9% | +0.8% | +6.7% | … |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Jul 22 @ $959.48 | 427 mentions vs 132.3/day the week before | +3.2% | -23.0% | +1.5% | … |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Jul 8 @ $948.80 | 642 mentions vs 206.0/day the week before | +4.5% | -4.7% | -7.1% | … |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Jun 25 @ $1,213.37 | 1401 mentions vs 232.7/day the week before | -6.7% | -19.6% | -25.8% | -10.9% |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Jun 16 @ $1,020.60 | 271 mentions vs 61.3/day the week before | +2.2% | +2.7% | -16.8% | -9.2% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Jun 8 @ $949.13 | 396 mentions vs 87.4/day the week before | -1.4% | +14.6% | +4.5% | +5.4% |
| May 21, 2026 | May 22 @ $750.88 | 307 mentions vs 100.4/day the week before | +19.3% | +37.9% | +39.6% | +21.2% |
| May 5, 2026 | May 6 @ $666.49 | 582 mentions vs 22.0/day the week before | -3.0% | +20.6% | +29.6% | +32.3% |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Apr 27 @ $524.48 | 76 mentions vs 5.1/day the week before | -3.9% | +9.9% | +77.0% | +56.4% |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Apr 13 @ $426.49 | 35 mentions vs 9.9/day the week before | +9.2% | +5.1% | +79.7% | +130.5% |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Mar 18 @ $461.47 | 96 mentions vs 15.0/day the week before | -3.8% | -17.2% | -1.4% | +126.0% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.